ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, CONQUEST LEMONRAID

FIRST RACE

SNIPER might be ready to pop on the drop to a new low in his third race following an extended layoff. Contreras, who was aboard for his last victory in 2015, is 3 for 7 at the meet for this barn. ULTRAFLAME won the top pick’s last race, the curtain raiser on Queen’s Plate Day, with a 78 Beyer. He’s taking another fishy drop, and should be prominent as an underlay. As usual, DASH OF DAZZLE figures to pick up some of the pieces.

SECOND RACE

GET’ERDONEBUD battled three-wide for the lead on the turn before weakening to third when he descended to this $20K NW2 level in his second race off the bench July 1. He’s shortening up from six to five furlongs, and should parlay a stalking trip into a high placing. BUDDING closed wide on his left lead to finish a close second in a longer sprint at this class June 23. Contreras takes over on the 6yo, who’s made a habit of filling out the exacta. MAJESTIC HEIST is coming off the sidelines for a capable layoff trainer. CORRYVRECHAN beat two next-out Fort Erie winners when graduating for $12.5K here June 9.

THIRD RACE

CONQUEST LEMONRAID was bumped early in the stretch when in the midst of his rally before dropping a neck decision in his July 2 turf debut in the Charlie Barley Stakes. The Ontario-bred son of Lemon Drop Kid shouldn’t mind the stretchout to nine furlongs in this 100-grander, which is a possible prep for the Breeders’ Stakes for the Canadian-breds in the lineup. FINAL COPY won his last two outings on the Taylor turf, against maidens and in a nine-furlong N1X. In a field with little speed, he should be dangerous racing near the projected slow pace. KING AND HIS COURT was a non-threatening seventh while racing wide in the Queen’s Plate. His 2yo grass form was mediocre, but son of emerging turf sire Court Vision should be a factor if things go his way.

FOURTH RACE

GIZMOTHEMOGWAIJEDI shook loose up front on the turn before fading to third at first asking in an $8K sprint. The son of Giant Gizmo is stretching out without blinkers while going on Lasix off the claim, and is bred for the task at hand. WONNESTRUT placed in back-to-back routes in the spring, before a subpar fourth most recently. HYTHE closed to beat out the top choice for second following a seven-month absence June 25, from which the winner exited to double up vs. $10K NW2 types.

FIFTH RACE

FLY DIRECT showed nothing after getting away slowly and racing wide at first asking in a maiden special weight route on the main track. With Lasix added, the 4yo is dropping to $32K for this mile and a sixteenth event on turf, a surface for which he’s bred, top and bottom. WILSHIRE STAR came close to breaking through last time in a similar spot. His trainer has a 23% strike rate second-time off the claim over the past five years ($2.94 ROI). TOO STORMY saved ground on the turn before checking in third behind WILSHIRE STAR June 30. Use him on the bottom of the exotics, along with LAST WAN.

SIXTH RACE

SWEET GRASS CREEK never fired after breaking outward last time in the G2 Highlander on turf. He was previously second and third in a pair of stakes on the Tapeta behind the unstoppable Pink Lloyd, Canada’s top sprinter. FIELD OF COURAGE dueled for the early lead before drawing clear and then held sway to prevail in a longer sprint at this level July 2. MAJESTIC SLEW won three in a row before finishing a distant fourth behind the latter July 2. Hernandez replaces Campbell, who’s sticking with SWEET GRASS CREEK. Belmont shipper PULLING

G’S might need one on the Tapeta before putting it all together.

SEVENTH RACE

MECHANICAL stalked a lively pace before fading to fifth in a recent $12.5K starter going seveneighths. A less-aggressive approach should make him more effective here in the third race of his form cycle. CUMMINGS ROAD was too sharp while pressing a slow pace and then tired late in a recent route experiment. The Tapeta expert is turning back to a more suitable sprint distance while changing surfaces, and has performed well on the grass in the past. UNCORKED SPIRIT is shortening up off a second going a mile on the lawn. His hot trainer has scored at a 21% clip second-time off the claim during the last five years ($1.28 ROI). Use FOREST BROTHER in the tri and super.

EIGHTH RACE

GLAMANATION chased the promising Dream It Is home when second in her debut and fourth in the open My Dear Stakes, during which she rallied three-wide into contention on the turn before tiring. She’s adding blinkers for this stakes for Ontario-breds, and could break her maiden in style. MEGA MONSTER beat OS maidens at first asking traveling four and a half furlongs June 17, and has worked thrice in the interim. Her dam was a precocious stakes winner, and her trainer has won this event twice, most recently with Caren in 2015. MO BIG CAT broke awkwardly before closing four-wide to land a six-furlong maiden special on turf in her second race July 8. Her stablemate, MOKA LATTE, another daughter of Uncle Mo, notched her five-furlong debut on the Tapeta in a slow clocking.

NINTH RACE

SWEET ROSE is by an excellent grass sire, Hat Trick, and her dam produced a stakes-placed runner on the lawn. Her Tapeta form is solid, and she could take to the turf like a duck to water. BLACK CANARY has been idle since ending up seventh among three next-out winners in the G1 Natalma last September. She graduated firsttime out in a turf sprint at Saratoga, which is an indication that she can run big while fresh. MOST INSPIRING was a stalking third off a long break in her first try for trainer Kevin Attard July 1. She’s ditching the blinkers, and Da Silva retains the mount. Put SPECIALCNSYDRATION on the bottom of intra-race bets.

TENTH RACE

ETHANATOR is a full-brother to the rapid sprinter Altius, who placed in several stakes. The son of Old Forester has worked quickly on occasion, and commences his career with blinkers and Lasix. SILENT JIMMIE placed in each of his last three outings, all in open maiden special company. He’s faced the likes of Mill Road and Circle of Friends, and is meeting easier in this hybrid race for OS maidens/$40K claimers. BEN LOMOND came up empty last time in his first turf start in a restricted stakes. Consider him for the lower rungs of the exotics, along with RAYREADY and DARK ALE.