ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, SPANISH HARLEM

FIRST RACE

YOUR SECRET’S SAFE getting major class relief and a turn back in distance for the opener; will be a short price, but is supposed to be tough vs. these horses. ONE MORE ROUND fast enough to make this spot too tough for even the top one, but he apparently has his issues, as he had major trouble getting back to the races after shipping in from California, being entered and scratched several times, before finally showing up and completely bombing; threat, assuming all is well. BRITISH BULLDOG never wins, but he has run some of his best races when turning back from route to sprint, as he does here.

SECOND RACE

TIZNOBLE lands in $25k claimer with no shortage of other speed, but he has been effective from a stalking position before, and his overall form makes him a player in this race. SLIM SHADEY still looking for first turf win in forever, but he generally will fire even if he doesn’t get there first; fell a little flat off the claim for dangerous trainer last time, but he can rebound here for a piece. Graded stakes winner AZAR taking big class drop after failing to pan out for top connections; catches field with some pace to set him up, just needs a trip from outside post.

THIRD RACE

LIBBY’S TAIL didn’t necessarily pan out following an very nice debut win as a 2yo, though she did get herself Grade 1 placed when just missing in the Frizette; fired her best shot fresh last year, and like her starting back sprinting. DANCING ALL NIGHT appeared to have no excuse when failing to finish up after a good trip in one turn mile last time, but liked her prior two starts, and don’t mind her cutting back for this; recency edge on the top one. DAWN THE DESTROYER had no excuses in that last one over a wet track, but she was off a layoff there, and she did improve to a new top figure; can improve again second time back in race featuring several question marks.

FOURTH RACE

DOUBLE DOSE turf to dirt and dropping signifi- cantly in class after getting outrun by the fleet Animal Appeal over a yielding course last time; good effort two back in off-the-turfer vs. a way better field, and she was an easy winner in her most recent start on the main track prior to that one. SLAM CHOWDER sat a trip and took her shot before being denied on the class drop in Kentucky last time; endured a long layoff after a solid start to her career, but she has appeared to come back okay. MIDNIGHT BOUNTY cutting in half after being vanned off last month downstate, which is a major concern, but she caught a pair of wet tracks prior to that one, and her overall form makes her competitive in a race like this - assuming all is well.

FIFTH RACE

COVENANT flashed good speed and earned a solid figure while settling for second-best to the talented Salty in her early season debut in Florida; 86 Beyer she earned for that one is above par for the level, and gives her a clear edge on this field. GIFTED LADY chased COVENANT to no avail in that last one, but she is also eligible to have developed during the down time; $725k purchase went well in her career debut behind a couple of talented horses. CONSPIRING lacked early speed but tried to race on late in the slop first time out, and she had little chance when at the back and behind horses in paceless turf route last time; turf to dirt and turning back for top trainer.

SIXTH RACE

LITTLE DIPPER was sharp when dusting next out winner Beaux Arts in her career debut; switches to turf for second start with plenty of pedigree behind her as a half to the Grade 2-winning turf sprinter Bye Bye Bernie. SLY BEAUTY had some trouble in a strong field when off the board in well-bet debut, but she flashed big speed when switched over to turf to defeat the boys last time, and she kept finding through that long Woodbine stretch. GOODBYE BROCKLEY a NY-bred stepping

up in class, but she moved forward on turf last time, just as her pedigree suggested she would, and she projects to have plenty of pace to run at here.

SEVENTH RACE

SPANISH HARLEM was in with a look at the top of the stretch of the Mother Goose last time, but she isn’t that kind of horse, and wound up fading back to last; can’t get too excited about her near 30-length romp over just two others in the slop, but she showed something in her two-turn maiden win, and her positional speed will projects to play well in this field. BLUE PRIZE lacked any early speed at all before rallying for second in her stateside debut; tough to evaluate those graded raced in Argentina, but she looks like a threat here is she can avoid losing contact this time. JC’S SHOOTING STAR lacking a winning profile at 3-for-25, with an additional 13 in the money finishes, but she is equally effective on turf and dirt and she will get this distance.

EIGHTH RACE

BLUE BAHIA getting stiff class test in loaded Caress, but she has made no mistakes sprinting on turf for the best of trainers, and last was her best yet when rating and then running to settle the Blue Sparkler quickly in the stretch; rating ability will serve her well in this race. FAIR POINT and MISS ELLA not easy to separate based on pair of meetings over this distance last year. FAIR POINT was unlucky when missing the break in their Keeneland meeting, and think she benefits from this slight cut back after flattening out a bit late last time. MISS ELLA didn’t run her best race over Woodbine’s synthetic track last time, but it’s hard to care too much about that race, as she is clearly better on turf; no chance in that race two back behind a winner who got loose, but she was game there.

NINTH RACE

FOX STRIKE interesting first time starter with pedigree as a Lonhro half to a pair of turf winners, including the fleet Fox Rules, who broke his maiden over Saratoga turf. JOE’S SMOKIN GUN owns valuable experience in field full of first time starters, and half to the Grade 1 grass horse Miss Temple City improved in his turf debut last time. FAIR ARCHER may ultimately want more distance than this, but he is bred as a half to the graded stakes-winning turf horse Brilliant, out of a dam who is a sister to Bernard Baruch winner Furiously.