ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, ZENS SECRET

FIRST RACE

FASTBOX ran evenly in her debut and beat half the field home. That’s decent for a debut. This barn is 21% with second time starters and they show a healthy flat bet profit. A jock switch to Mora is noted (14% J/T). RIVER SIDE RUN beat over half the field home in her debut even though it was washed off the green. It didn’t help matters that she broke second to last. If able to move forward in her second start then you might get some value as she was sent off at 26-1 in her debut. LITTLE DIXIE K dropped in class previously but didn’t fire and didn’t get bet that hard either. With Eramia up and another class drop that will change today.

SECOND RACE

JENJIBRE goes for a barn that is over 20% with their second time starters and overall turf runners. This filly ran well in her debut even though it was two turns on the turf. One of three sibs won on the grass. Class drop looks like the money run. JACINTA is the other half of the entry and we like both of them. If one were to declare out then that would be fine with us. This filly has a sire that gets 6% debut turf winners. Her dam went 3-0-2-0 on the green for 19K. This is her first foal to try the green. This barn has wanted the grass for their charge in both starts to date but both were washed off. ULM just ran great when first on the turf. Any move forward makes her tough. PRINCESA POMASANE is by a 1 for 9 debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Lone grass sib is 4-0-2-0 for 5K. SPLENDID LADY is by a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. Both sibs won on the green. CARELLIE’S CANDY is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam went 7-1-1-3 for 25K on the green. Four of ten sibs won on the weeds.

THIRD RACE

MISS MISSISSIPPI has the best Timeform early pace number and we agree that this filly is quickest. Allowance speed is often quicker than restricted claimer speed. A jock switch is noted. CAROLINE CONQUEST drops in class and has won on this dirt before. Was elongated sprints of late too far? She goes 5 1/2 furlongs today. EASE ON WEST got good race flow two back and won nicely. First time winners a tad tough last out but that is normal. She does have some upside.

FOURTH RACE

PEREGRINO is bred to love the grass and he did make a nice middle move last out before spitting the bit. Eramia gets a leg up today as this gelding goes second time turf and second with new barn. BAYOU BLADE has won twice on this lawn while last few were solid also on this lawn. He draws nicely and might get some pace to chase. KISS HIM TWICE did run better last out at 44-1. He doesn’t have to beat much to get the show dough here. Efforts for this jock 1 and 3 back were encouraging. Not sure what happened with Kevin Smith up two back other than trying to force the pace.

FIFTH RACE

GONE LUCKY actually ran OK two back when trying seven panels off a layoff. He beat over half the field home and closed ground inside the 1/8th pole. Maybe he just doesn’t like the turf which helps explain most recent. This barn is 21% turf to dirt. A weight break is noted. ROOSTER J might show some speed on the drop down. Current form looks poor but he has never gotten an early breather. Maybe that changes today. LONELY AND RAPID ran OK in his debut and his upside is better than all. Can you have upside at this bottom level though? Why not. First time gelding is noted and maybe he will like this outside post more. GUM CREEK is by a 8% debut sire. His dam went 9-1-3-2 for 38K. Both sibs failed to win.

SIXTH RACE

SPEEDY HUNTUR has tried the turf twice and run well both times. Win rider returns in Austin. We spy two with some speed and a few others on the stretch-out so pace should be decent. PIRATES PARLAY has some back class. Let’s say he needed that return try and notice that he went off over 9-1. INDY’S CODE ran OK in his turf debut last out. He has some speed and draws inside. There is a decent chance that no one runs early with him. OR maybe he is better with a target which often happens when a runner goes second time turf.

SEVENTH RACE

ZENS SECRET has gone favored in both starts. He was rank in his debut but still ran well. He put it all together in his second start. We like that he can pass runners. Today’s pace will be faster. Any chance for a decent price for this up and comer? WAR ANTHEM just ran a Beyer top. Toss that turf try three back and he looks better. The half furlong cut back should put him in stalk mode. STAGE SHOW has speed but so do others. Still, if Morales guns, he could clear off and get that all important early breather.

EIGHTH RACE

WAVE GOODBYE ran OK on the green only three and four back. A nice confidence boost two back and then allowance foes a problem previously. Win rider returns in Meche. Any chance this gal is a new turf horse? TAKING TIPS stretches out and tries the green for the second time. We can’t resist that. Turf breeding is OK. DEBBYZ WINGZ goes for a 3% turf barn but that didn’t stop this filly from finishing second beaten only a length in her turf debut. Maybe she is just better around two turns? We call that a new route horse. Another good turf try and we can add new turf horse to that.