ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, HELDATGUNPOINT

FIRST RACE

SURPRISING SOUL has turned it around this year with three comfortable wins from as many starts; seems logical for high-percentage connections. SHOW COURT was no match for the top pick two back, but prepped for this with a game win over the flat 18 days ago; showed promise earlier this year. MOSCATO is a neck away from bringing perfect 3 for 3 stateside mark into this race and looked very good winning his last two.

SECOND RACE

OUT OF NOWHERE has already had too many chances, but she has also run all of the the best races in this field, including game effort for second to an odds-on favorite two starts back; sprints at this level on turf for the first time while in form. STARSHIP ROCKETTE raced a bit greenly without speed in her main track debut; switches to turf right away with a pedigree to improve as a half to a turf winner from a dam (also a winner on grass) who is out of a sister the the multiple Grade 1 winner Voodoo Dancer, who earned over $1.4 million on the turf. FANCY GEM had a bit of a trip after a stumbling start first time out, then raced freely on the early lead before offering no resistence to that 2/5 favorite last time; drops with speed, and this shorter distance may suit her. NEW CANAAN an interesting first time starter if she gets in, as she has pedigree being out of a dam who is a sister to three graded stakes winners; trainer has already sent out nine debut winners this year, though only one of those has come on grass.

THIRD RACE

COMBAT CONTROLLER got very rank while racing in behind horses in the early stages on slowpaced route two starts back, but he settled that race quickly once getting through on the rail at the top of the stretch, and he caught another moderate pace last time when once again getting rank behind horses; enough speed in this field to get away from him a bit early, which may allow him to settle better, and he was holding his own in some solid MSW races ealrlier this year. BUNYAAN dropping out of tougher race where he finished behind a couple of next out winners, including Phat Man who stepped up to take the Long Branch at Monmouth with a 93 Beyer; figures competitive at this level for trianer who excels with dirt routers up here (past two years, dirt routes, Saratoga: 9 for 26, 35%, $2.65 ROI, including a 1-2 finish in the meet opener). PROFESSOR SNAPE posted lone win in a race where the favorite bolted at the start and lost his rider, but he stumbled at the start of that race himself, and he just missed in a sprint when back to the main track last time.

FOURTH RACE

EMANCIPATION will attract plenty of attention based on pedigree (he’s a full to Derby winner Orb) and connections, but he has run legitimately well in hsi first two starts, including that last one when kicking in gamely to just miss closing down a slow pace; added distance figures to help, and while he is has shown a closing style to start, he has not been a one-run plodder in those races. Like EMANCIPATION, FAYEQ is lightly-raced with upside and a big pedigree (he’s a half to Rachel Alexandra) for top connections; stepped forward last time when taking over that race strongly off the turn and finishing clear of Uncle Mojo, who came back to win up here on Sunday with an 82 Beyer. BATTLE MIDWAY couldn’t overcome a speed-favoring track at Parx last time and settled for 3rd; hardhitting router has improved for this trainer, and has held that form over a long series of races. T R CREW ran well up here twice last summer without winning, and he recently improved to a new top figure while handling the $700k purchase BLAME US ALL at Parx; either one could factor here, as

could the recently improved HAMMERIN AAMER.

FIFTH RACE

FLYING POINT pulled an upset in turf sprint debut for her underrated trainer, but it’s not like she lucked into that win after getting trapped in behind horses in the stretch, before having to back out and alter clear, and still managing to find a finish to close that field down late; turns back and drops down in race lacking a standout. A DIXIE TWISTER getting a class drop for a top trainer, and she will likely fit better here after rallying too late in each of her last two turf sprints; enough speed in this field to set her up. RUBY DUSK took awhile to come around, but like that she was never dropped in class, and she has run the best races of her career recently; has already finished behind A DIXIE TWISTER twice, but appears to have improved since their most recent meeting.

SIXTH RACE

ASILIVEANDBREATHE a NY-bred with a pedigree being a Union Rags half-sister to four multiple winners, including the two-time stakes-winning sprinter Miss Narcissist; Nevin not a huge first out trainer, but she can get them to win, and has actually been pretty live over the past 12 months (2yo first time starter, dirt sprint, past year: 2 for 12, with winners at 19/1 and 20/1, and another one finishing a close 2nd at 20/1). TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR one of a pair entered by the hot Gargan barn, along with TAYLOR’S THE BOSS, and only one will start with Carmouche named on both. TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR a $225k purchase as a yearling, and she is a half to five multiple winners from her dam, including the stakes winning sprinter Flatterywillgetyou. SUPER STONE holds valuable experience, and she looked like a filly who might have needed that first start while chasing the pace and appearing to race greenly through the stretch; good sign that she took money to go off favored that day.

SEVENTH RACE

VOODOO SONG dropped off the trainer change to Linda Rice here last Saturday, and strongly wired a field with a big new top figure to go 2 for 2 on grass; faces tough distance stretch out if electing to wheel back just four days later, but Linda wins with this move from limited runs (past two years, 1-7 day layoff: 5 for 10, $2.13 ROI), and this is not a strong field. CLUTCH CARGO a former stablemate of the top pick making his first start for a new trainer while stretching out in distance; laterunning closer may see out the trip okay, and he has had some trips in his turf races, but he will have to improve if VOODOO SONG wheels back. Not a big fan of the form MAN OF WIREGRASS has been holding, but respect the job his new trianer does too much not to at least mention him, especially when he decides to stretch one out on turf. VINTAGE MATTERS a logical contender making second start back from a layoff; couldn’t close enough ground in that last one, which was taken wire to wire on a fast pace, but he owns valuable experience over this distance.

EIGHTH RACE

HELDATGUNPOINT bred to be a turf sprinter, and he improved immediately upon swithcing over when dominating a field of maidens at Belmont; cut a solid pace before getting closed down by the undefeated Crawdaddy in $100k stake last time, but went well once again in that spot, and think the shorter spritns up here will actually suit this horse. FREUD’S FRIEND was a debut winner up here last summer, and then came right back to finish 3rd in open company Skidmore in his nest start; made a solid pace with new blinkers last time before proving to be no match for that field, but he could easily improve enough to win here. ELENZEE wired a field going longer to break his maiden, then worked a good enough trip before coming up short last time; don’t mind him going shorter, as he ran pretty well over a similar distance in his debut despite getting in tight in the stretch while still in contention.

NINTH RACE

BY THE MOON facing tougher once again after putting together pair of solid wins recently as the favorite; has always held her own vs. the better horses in this division, and has come close to taking some major prizes, just needs the right trip. PAULASSILVERLINING the horse to beat after landing pair of Grade 1’s off the private pruchase and trainer change to kick off 2017; tactical speed a plus for mare who is always very sharp from the gate, and actually think she might be better over this distance, despite winning those bigger races going seven. FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM a half-length away from bringing undefeated sprint record into the Honorable Miss for an excellent trainer, and she is nicely posted outside with ample early speed; has been dominating weaker fields recently at short prices, but she showed that she can go at this level when tested in the La Brea last year.

TENTH RACE

PRIMA ATTRICE improved with blinkers two back, despite finding some trouble in the running, and she just couldn’t make up enough ground last time after being rated to last along the rail all the way into the upper-stretch; getting better, and she’ll be getting a big rider change if she’s in. SHE REMEMBERED just went evenly when switched to turf for the first time off the layoff, but she also improved a bit in that last one to close late ground while just ahead of PRIMA ATTRICE all the way; may be the horse to beat, but not sure how short I’d be willing to go. GRANDE BESO endured an uncomfortable trip similar to the one PRIMA ATTRICE had in that June 4th race for this level, then failed to fire a shot last time; blinkers back on for underrated trainer.