ANALYSIS

FIRST RACE

MISS KENTUCKY has been going well on dirt to start her career but she is bred to handle the change over to turf sprinting as a half to two turf winners, and her second dam was a very good turf sprinter; has enough speed to make the front. BATTLEMENT has disappointed since arriving stateside, but she did pick it up a bit when cut back to sprint on turf last time, though she had a fast pace to close into that day. FIRST CHARMER picked up some tired behind BATTLEMENT in that fast-paced sprint two back, then stepped up into a much tougher race last time; better fit with this group.

SECOND RACE

OISEAU DE GUERRE made a pretty impressive debut up here as a 2yo despite shortening late after an eye-catching early move to the lead, and he was just taking on more than he could handle in the Pilgrim in his second start, though he didn’t exactly have a perfect trip in that race; interested to see what he has starting back off the layoff. MOHICAN just fell short in his turf debut as a 2yo, then came with a game wide run in his next start behind Cowboy Culture, who is not a graded stakes winner on turf. PEACE SPEAKER improved in his turf debut while finding more speed, and he stayed stubbornly in the stretch of that race before succumbing to his entry-mate in the late stages; tough here if he can back that one up, especially if the top two need a race on the way back.

THIRD RACE

STAY FOND going to stretch it out as she switches back from turf, and she may have enough speed to make the pace in this race if she gets an aggressive ride; liked her win over a mile off the layoff, and her last two dirt starts have come in the the Grade 2 Gazelle, which was run over a speed favoring track, and that allowance race on June 1st which featured subsequent Mother Goose winner Unchained Melody and Indiana Oaks winner Overture. MOANA was no match for Unchained Melody in that Mother Goose last time, but she was close to a strong pace when tiring late in the Balck Eyed Susan before that; class relief a big plus and she should be close to the pace throughout, if not on the lead outright. SMILE BIG is okay on either surface, and she won’t be compromised no matter how the pace develops in this race. BLENHEIM PALACE isn’t lacking for pedigree to handle the switch back to dirt, or the distance of the race, and she did finally break through with a win last time, but her overall form leaves much to be desired, and it’s not like she’ll be some kind of price in this race.

FOURTH RACE

SHANE’S JEWEL caught a sloppy track in his debut, and he was bumped at the start before chasing the impressive winner of that race, and then tiring in the stretch; drops for second start in field full of first time starters. TOM’S MUSIC debuting for Lukas, who doesn’t win first out any more, but is off to a good start here, and this colt is a half to three winners from this dam, who was herself a stakes winning sprinter, and a debut winner, as well. DUNCASTLE enters with something of a spotty tab, but he blew out sharply over the main track here on Thursday, and his trainer has already sent out nine debut winners this year, six of them in maiden claiming races.

FIFTH RACE

SHADOW ROCK has been a rock solid turf sprinter for a long time while racking up 11 career wins, and he showed he still has what it takes when keeping closer to the pace than usual before driving that field down two starts back; drops in class and finds a field with a little pace signed on to set him

up. STARSHIP WILDCAT was racing in good form in Florida over the winter, winning three of his four starts, before taking a shot in that tough Grade 3 last time; better fit here with plenty of early speed.

AKTABANTAY did have a fast pace to run down two starts back, but he has found himself as a turf sprinter recently, and he will appreciate this class drop after getting into a tough spot last time in a race that has come back strong.

SIXTH RACE

BELIEVE INDEED acquitted herself quite well in a much tougher spot when returned to NY back in May, and she came right back to close down claimers in much cozier spot in her very next start; back down to a better level here after trying tougher in her first two starts off the claim. CHARMING CLARE posted lone career turf win with the benefit of a perfect trip behind a fast pace at Indiana Grand last summer, but she has faced better on this surface right along, including a start vs. 14-time winner Daddy’s Boo last time; drops for the first time and is perfectly drawn inside. In a race where trips may be paramount, MY GOOD VENEZUELA will need one from post ten, but she fits this race well with her best race, and she may have needed that last one off the layoff when getting out-kicked from behind by a longshot.

SEVENTH RACE

Not sure how good MINSKY MOMENT actually is, and he does have to stretch out here, but it’s hard to argue with this spot for 3yo who earned a layover figure two starts back, and his last race, while cutting it close at a short price, came against a horse who may turn out to be pretty good. WINSTON’S CHANCE in from Finger Lakes with three wins under his belt already, including a pair around two turns; makes some sense and likely to offer some value. ROYAL EKATI has so far diappointed in his three starts this year, and he is no cinch to improve with added distance, but his maiden win last November was solid, and he may not have to build upon that one too much in this spot.

EIGHTH RACE

HEAVENLY SCORE may be in a bit tough here, but she has actually run well in all of her starts sprinting, and she handled turf last time despite being hard-rated to take off the pace in a race where her speed may have played; giving her one more chance at a price. MORTICIA four for four sprinting on turf, and she rated kindly off a speedy rival last time before running that horse over in the stretch; game win two back while exchanging a couple of bumps in the stretch. LADY ALEXANDRA was flat two starts back behind MORTICIA, but her overall turf form is solid; goes shorter off the trainer change after working a perfect trip to close down allowance rivals over seven furlongs last time. INDIA MANTUANA an overachiever who has held her own vs. some solid competition, but the value in that is mostly gone for new connections; game try trying to close last time in race that was holding together up front.

NINTH RACE

DAB has made first two starts this year on turf, and he’s run well on that surface, but worth remembering that he made a promising debut vs. a good field on dirt up here last summer; drops with blinkers on. LAKE SURPRISE goes for trainer sending out nothing but live first time starters lately, so it might pay to take this one seriously; dams first three foals are all winners, including the multiple stakes winner Freudie Anne. SOUPER COLORS got bet for his debut at this level in Maryland, then went out there and never landed a blow after getting outrun early, which makes the ship in to Saratoga for his second start somewhat interesting; adds blinkers for second start. Union Avenue Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 (518) 584-6200 Main track: One and one-eighths mile, oval. Mellon turf course: One mile, 98 feet. Inner turf course: Seven Furlongs, 304 feet. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,144 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick 4 and Superfecta wagering: 24% ■ Pick 5 wagering: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering: 24% (15% on non-carryover days)