ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, OUR FROSTY

FIRST RACE

LADY FRIEND might prove quickest from her two post while going second time on the green. Maybe she needed both of her return tries at 7 panels. You have to admit that there isn’t much pace in this race. Class drop for good measure. CHANGEFORATHOUSAND is by a 7% debut turf sire. Her dam went 16-41-1 for 78 on the green. This is her first foal. Eramia lands here and that means the money pours in. IM A ROYAL TAMER is by a 10% debut turf sire. Her dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green. One of six sibs won on the grass. We think her last two starts at EvD are OK.

SECOND RACE

BLUSHING DREAMER is feeling good and draws the attack post for this 7 furlongs. This gelding is just better of late and that coincides with the barn change. Sometimes, a runner just needs a change of scenery. MOSTLY SUNNY is knocking on the door. He looks a tad better if you discount turf try from two back. Route speed comes in handy on today’s cut back .ROLLWITHIT loves to finish second. Not sure what to make of that recent field if this colt was 3/2. Still, he is more than capable of a Beyer in the mid to high 50’s. First time this dirt is the X factor.

THIRD RACE

TAP THAT WORD catches a race with no speed. We don’t think he wants the front end but stalking a slow pace is almost as good. His most recent was only five points below his Beyer top. Now he goes third off the layoff and even gets in light with the apprentice up. ADAMO is just a solid turf runner that wins from time to time. Good prices of late and he puts races together for the first time since last summer. BROADWAY KING might find the front end at a big price. Outside post won’t matter if he breaks well and finds the front end. We rather like the jock switch to Rosier. Gun, gun, gun, and then gun some more.

FOURTH RACE

MIDGE’S MAGIC catches a race that is all speed. She is the only true closer in the race. Plus, she cuts back 1 1/2 furlongs. Is five furlongs too short? New barn doesn’t think so and they show a flat bet profit with new runners. BOOGIE GAL hopped at the start last out and we love these types in their next start. Speed with more speed is tough and all but at least this filly draws inside. ELLE LES YU is the big X factor. She faced tons better before leaving Broberg. New barn drops her to lowest of levels. Let the guessing game begin.

FIFTH RACE

OUR FROSTY is bred to love the grass. She won her turf debut last out and did so nicely. We like that connections give her some time between starts. Other speed would seem to be a problem but we don’t think we have seen this filly’s best. REINE DES ANIMAUX just ran a Beyer top. That 84 Beyer is the best last race figure in the field. She even gets good race flow. HALF FAST ROSE can pass runners something we weren’t sure of until her most recent. Once again she gets a contested pace to chase.

SIXTH RACE

FLASHING ARKIE ran OK in his last three and that includes a recent turf try. He is more than capable around two turns. Third or fourth choice in this field? We see value for a runner that might get better race flow today. EAGLE RISING has a little speed and gets back to the dirt. Penchant for less? A little early on that call. Let’s see what turf to dirt can do for him. SHINGUARD has a nice even running style that might bode well for today’s stretch-out. He did beat over half the field home three back when routing. And that was off a layoff.

SEVENTH RACE

I’LL TAKE IT ALL is by a 11% debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green. Three of five sibs did win on the grass. This filly has never run a poor one and finds a spot that isn’t very tough. If she likes the grass, then she is definitely the one to beat. SAINTLY BALLAD ran great when last seen in a turf sprint and it came in New Orleans. Current form is fine as she ships in from EvD where the grass course has been closed for the meet. MISS HALOACTIF has won three times on this sod. She will have to come from well off the pace today with the cut back to one turn.