ANALYSIS BEST BET: RACE 7, KENZIES FLAIR

FIRST RACE

J J BRAZZ looks OFF form and he might be but what if he needed his return try? Then he tried to push the pace going 6 1/2 furlongs and faltered. Needed that race also? Those foes were tons tougher. He drops in class and sheds the blinkers all while cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs. We are all for doing something different at this level especially if any kind of a price. MAN OF VALOR gets some pace to chase but might not need it as current form is that good. He saves his best for this dirt. DANCE CALLER is feeling good. This 11YO is easy to root for and this barn knows him well.

SECOND RACE

FLASHLIGHT has gotten turf figs of 77, 70, and 83 in his last three turf starts. The lone not so good try came with trouble. He drops in class for this and gets good race flow. The Ramirez barn is 24% with new runners. T’ CADEAU is speed with more speed. Sounds like a problem. This gelding can run hooked and is feeling good. This barn is 38% with repeating winners even if the sample size is small. RUSTON VOW got an 82 Beyer on this sod only two back. He returns to that distance today and race flow is fine. A good price for sure.

THIRD RACE

LORD REDDING might be the best speed. He draws inside main pace foes. If Castillo will gun early then we think he gets an early breather. That is how this guy won only two back. The move to two turns might help front end chances. ANDY MAN is the value. He hit the board in both distance tries. We like this post to save some ground and he ran OK second off the layoff in Oklahoma. SPOTSBACK has some speed but seems capable without a breather. What was wrong with most recent? Combine that with OP route tries and you can kinda see that he likes two turns.

FOURTH RACE

BUBBA RAY’S SUN is bred to like the turf even if two prior turf tries don’t suggest it. Eramia stays put and that is the first clue. The blinkers come OFF and that can only help. Let’s say he needed his turf start three back as it was off a layoff. His other turf start came versus straight maidens at the Fair Grounds. Maybe seven furlongs was too short last out? WRECK EM is the one to beat off recent turf starts with matching 51 Beyers. No cinch to put three good ones together but you could make the case that he is a new turf horse. ALARMING PLEASURE seems a tad better on the sod. Solid tries of late, right? STORM IS DUE is by a 0 for 18 debut turf sire. His dam missed the board in lone turf try. Three sibs failed to win on the green but one did hit the board. CLEVER JEWEL is by a 2 for 10 debut turf sire. His dam went 1-0-0-0 on the weeds. One of two sibs won on the sod with the other hitting the board.

FIFTH RACE

GUM CREEK popped and stopped in his debut and is now a gelding. Rosier stays put and this guy catches a race without much proven zip. BUTTA GOT UNCS BAC gets a positive jockey switch from Smith to Guerrero. We rather liked this guy’s debut as it was nice and even. This barn is very good with their dirt runners in maiden claiming races. ARTEMIS TALENT is by a 10% debut sire. His dam went 22-2-3-1 for 19K. Both sibs won with one having beat winners.

SIXTH RACE

MISS LILLY gets great race flow as there are plenty of speed types in here. Her last two grass starts were solid and now she drops into restricted foes. This post hurts a little but you can’t have everything. BACK STAGE BONITA is stuck outside but still figures a good stalking trip behind all the speeds. She has won on this sod before and is just better of late. FLASHY SHOES ran OK two back when given some pace help. That happens again today. The equipment change is an 0 for 11 move for this barn but that sample is small. GUNNITE GRACIE is OK. BIZZARRINI is by a 0 for 27 debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced. One of two sibs won on the weeds.

How unlucky is KENZIES FLAIR to draw the rail in his first three starts? We can forgive anyone’s debut and this guy caught a wet track. We really thought his second start would be much better as he was dropping to the bottom. He did beat over half the field home but still. Here comes another jockey switch. One of these days this guy is going to break better. One more time. STAR TIME ran better on the class drop in his second start. Isn’t that how thing are supposed to go? Yep. LONELY AND RAPID ran OK in his debut and is now a gelding. He showed a little speed in his debut so we expect an off the pace trip today. What? Yes, an off the pace try for a horse that just showed some speed. Trust us.

EIGHTH RACE

SUMMERS BACK gets back to the turf and that is what she does best. Notice that connections find a spot where this mare can’t be claimed. Just enough pace to keep things honest up front but her A game wins this no matter the pace. BEAUTIFUL HONDURAS is a new turf hose. She just missed a Beyer top last out. She does get in light. DEBBYZ WINGZ is feeling good so the class jump is actually a good sign. We see these types do well in this spot all the time around here. SO SILLY LILLIE is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam never tried the green. All 3 sibs failed to hit the board on the sod.