ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, TERRY O GERI

FIRST RACE

MIDNIGHT BOUNTY was pulled up and vanned off two starts back vs. a better field, which is her only start over her preferred fast dirt since claimed back in February; stretch out may push her limits, but she did win her lone dirt start around twoturns earlier this year, and this race is open to a rebounder like her. LA INESPERADA will win this if able to come close to one of her better races, which have been eluding her lately; drop off the claim fails to inspite confidence in a turnaround, but her speed plays, and she was a winner over this distance up here last summer. SHAKESPERIAN DREAM hasn’t won a race in almost a year, but she has been legged up on turf for her new trainer and will likely be a price in a where where the favorites aren’t exactly easy to trust.

SECOND RACE

MORE THAN A LEGEND went well to just miss up here last year while facing a better field, and she raced on well after a clean trip from off the pace in her first start back from a layoff; drops from a good post over this distance on the inner. Best to be forgiving of DYNAMIC WAR’s turf debut at Keeneland as she was very rank there after getting bumped at the start, and she went well to just miss when dropped to this level on opening day; tough post. LION IN WAIT has settled for second-best is each of her three turf starts to date, and there are no excuses to be had; tries again, this time for trainer who does a very good job, both overall and off the claim. ARTISTIC QUALITY faced better in her lone start earlier in the year then went back to the drawing board; did little running in that first one, but class drop can bring her closer to the action.

THIRD RACE

FIRST GOAL 0-2 on turf, but he has faced much better horses in those races, the first directly off his maiden win over a demanding seven furlongs at Woodbine, and the second in his seasonal debut at Gulfstream; like his speed in this field. ALASKAN PRINCE closed steadily after a clean trip and fell short of front-running Spectrolite in his NY debut for Weaver, but he earned his typical figure for that effort, and that is the kind of race that projects to make him tough in this field; benefits if FIRST GOAL gets hooked up on the pace. JEWEL HEIST has been best on fast dirt so far, and his form is a bit dirtied up by several off track races this year; an unknown on this surface, but like the Wildcat Heir’s sprinting on grass.

FOURTH RACE

PLAY BIG turning back to a more comfortable distance off the claim for trainer who is so far 6 for 14 off the claim in dirt sprints on this circuit (43%, $2.61 ROI), though he hasn’t so far managed to keep his strong downstate run going up here; form was improving prior to the mile attempt last time, and would rather take him than any of the four exiting that 7/27 race for this condition. HARD HITTER chased that pace right from the start and drove to a short lead in the stretch before getting nailed on the money in the aforementioned 7/27 race, which was contested over a wet, sealed track; tries again, as does STAR EMPIRE, who set the pace in that race, came back eight days later to rally into 2nd on a class rise, and now comes back to make his third start of the meet just a week later.

FIFTH RACE

CYRIELLE a $300k yearling by Animal Kingdom, who already has a 2yo turf winner at this meet, and out of a dam who could run on either surface; Motion strong with 2yo first time starters in turf sprints (past five years, 17%, $2.78 ROI). POCKET BOOK owns valuable experience, and she flashed good speed in her Gulfstream debut before getting

out-finished by a favored Pletcher first time starter at the end; tough here if coming forward off that race. LA CONTESSA the first foal from her dam, who is a sister to a pair of stakes winners, including four-time turf winner Ruff and Ready; Pletcher has already won a pair of these turf sprints for 2yos at the meet.

SIXTH RACE

TERRY O GERI won each of his first two starts sprining on dirt, including a top figure 83 when running by odds-on Horoscope on April 19th, which led to him getting a shot at the Mike Lee; tough trip losing position in traffic before being forced to swing very wide to the stretch last time. BENEVOLENCE has fallen just short in last three starts at this level, but he has had some nice set-ups in those races; closed gamely in his last two starts, but he can keep closer if the pace isn’t there. CERRETALTO was close to a fast pace ahead of BENEVOLENCE last time, as was the big longshot GAMING, before getting outfinished on the stretch; may land a more comfortable trip this time, though it’s hard not to prefer GAMING to him, especially if the discrepancy in odds in even close to the same this time.

SEVENTH RACE

SET ME UP was off slowly in fast-paced route in his debut as a 2yo, but he went first from the back of the field, and managed to carry his run a long way before getting out-closed by a couple of horses who timed their runs better at the end; 3yo debut comes off a layoff, but he can contend here with natural improvement. BARTLEBY made his lone turf start last year in a common race with SET ME UP, and they finished noses apart after they both encountered some early trouble; good trip when back to grass last time, but he couldn’t get to a frontrunning winner, and was outfinished by an in-form Hoboe for 2nd late. UNCLE CHESTER has run out of chances at the MSW level, where he has earned some figures that would make him competitive here, and drops back down from a tough outside post; has already finished first in a race, but was DQd from that narrow win last October.

EIGHTH RACE

STALLWALKIN’ DUDE was uncharacteristically flat in the stretch vs. graded stakes rivals last time, though he did take up a position closer to the early pace, a tactic which has done him in before; hardhitter was on a good run prior to that one, which even the trip to Dubai couldn’t stop, and he rates the benfit of the doubt as he seeks third straight Tale of the Cat. LOOSE ON THE TOWN stumbled badly at the start at Parx before settling for second best, which was his first start on dirt with lasix; talented horse has improved his figures on turf this year, but that is with lasix, his dirt form is solid, and he has run well over this track in the past. WEEKEND HIDEAWAY logical turning back out of dead game Commentator win over a mile when last seen, where he narrowly defeated Diversify, who came back to win a stake with a 100 Beyer; turn back works.

NINTH RACE

HIGH JINGO had speed in a couple of races that went to closers last year, and she returned from the layoff to once again contest the pace in a race that was won from the back of the pack; goes shorter switching to turf for the first time and may be able to shake free in field lacking for much in the way of other sprint speed. OBJECTIVE COMPLETE was away slowly vs. a much better field which included the multiple stakes winner Morticia in her January debut, and she failed to produce a finish in that race before getting more time to develop; will like this company nd much better as she starts back from the layoff for barn that has struggled up here. KINKY SOX sat a nice trip and wasn’t nearly good enough to prevail over a troubled winner in her open company debut; was flat in the stretch of turf debut vs. fellow NY-breds, but that race was over seven furlongs.

TENTH RACE

WEEKEND HOTTIE has been an overall disappointment, but she does appear to have improved for her new trainer, who is on a good run right now, and she did not have the greatest trip in the world when behind a couple of these in this condition opening weekend; chance to turn the tables. STORMY ALEXIS disappointed without excuse when dropped to this level last time, which has been a running theme for 5yo mare showing 8 runnerup finishes from her 13 turf starts; tough to have a lot of confidence in her as she tries again. CASHLESS SOCIETY prevailed after a perfect trip in her debut for leading trainer, and takes the drop right away after proving to be no match for allowance rivals after another nice trip last time; races so far don’t gove her any edge on this field, but expect her to be a short price regardless. SARATOGA BY DESIGN an intreresting longshot to use somewhere, as she has some races that would give her a look vs. this field, including a couple up here, and she has speed from the inside post.