ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, PIONEER SPIRIT

FIRST RACE

NOMINAL DOLLARS finished well behind a frontrunning winner when turned back to sprint in May, and he improved upon that effort when powering around that field of three-life claimers last time; facing tougher, but doing so while in form, which isn’t necessarliy the case with some of the others in here. WILL DID IT got into career-best form once turned back to sprint last summer, and he carried that run through the winter before getting a break; couldn’t close into that race last time while trying gamely all the way, but returns in short order for trainer who does good work off the claim (Gullo, past 2 years, first off the claim in dirt sprints: 14 for 44, 32%, $3.22 ROI). SCARLY CHARLY was claimed out of a win here almost exactly a year ago, and returns to Saratoga taking a pretty steep drop following 0-10 run since; was never a prolific winner for his prior connections, but he always held his own in some tough spots. SAMMY WONDER STONE has won each of his last three starts vs. claimers, and he went well vs. tougher horses two starts back after a tricky trip; do wonder where he’s been in the 100 days since his last start, but his new trainer has done good work off the claim from limited opportunities.

SECOND RACE

Like the race GET THE FACTS is exiting, which featured a fast pace and an expeirenced, frontrunning winner, and he raced greenly in there while kept over behind horses for much of the stretch run; hoping he can come forward for the experience for barn that has really struggled up here. AIRTOUCH a full-brother to Sweet Loretta, a debut winner as a 2yo for Pletcher last summer who then arrived here to win both the Schuylerville and the Spinaway; tough distance for a firster, but Pletcher manages it well (past 5 years, 2yo first time stater, 7 furlongs, dirt: 11-38, 29%, $2.31 ROI). BASE COMMAND figures tough if able to build upon his debut, where he took some money before rallying into a wicked duel to get 2nd; well-bred colt has drawn a nice post on the outside. Like Base Command, FIXEDINCOME LARRY was outrun by that fast pace in his debut, before racing on late for 3rd; trainer having a good year with his babies.

THIRD RACE

PIONEER SPIRIT appeared to be okay after a promising debut with a figure, but he has had trouble putting races together since, and was finally dropped in class last time; turf form holds up, even that last one where he stumbled after the break before chasing a loose winner in a race that had no closing going on, and taking it as a positive sign that he returns quickly in a protected spot for trainer who is on a good run off the claim with turf horses: past year, 7 for 16, 44%, $4.30 ROI. SPACE MOUNTAIN the horse to beat as he drops to a more manageable spot and picks up Castellano; good effort when getting class relief two back, though he really had no excuse there after sitting a trip and making the front ahead of the eventual winner. ROMANS PARADISE needs his best, and also needs some pace to develop, but he has run some races that would give him a chance in here, and he is going to appreciate getting to go longer after sprinting in his first two starts of the year.

FOURTH RACE

LIMITED VIEW was purchased for just over $5k and has little pedigree to speak of, but that stuff mattered not when showing good speed and then going on to an easy score in her debut at Laurel; scratched from the Schuylerville on opening day to await this one, and will have to take on an additional 3/16ths, but she really did run well first time out for trainer who does good work with his 2yos. PURE SILVER two-for-two to start for Pletcher, including game front-running score over a 1:5

favorite in restricted stake last time for which she earned a 78 Beyer; speed from the rail. SLY ROXY was entered for turf first time out but stayed in to race over that sealed track and flashed speed before powering clear in the stretch to a goodlooking win; unclear how much the wet track may have moved her up, but well-bred filly appears to have some talent. SOUTHAMPTON WAY stepped forward in her second start to get a win over the track on opening day, but she worked hard for it and will have to improve again, as will STAINLESS, who rallied from the back for a no-threat 3rd in the Schuylerville.

FIFTH RACE

GHURAIR never had a real chance off the claim in fast race that was dominated up front by classdropping Glorious Empire (103 Beyer), but he did mid-move in there before racing on while down inside all through the stretch, and he also had no chance two starts back when trying to close from last into a fast fraction; drops with plenty of races that are good enough, just needs a trip in wide-open race. MADE IN DETROIT appeared to be taking a negative drop in class when shipped back up to NY for that last one, but he looked no worse for wear while blowing that field out on the front end and approaching his career best figure; like his speed in field lacking for much of same. AZAR handled MADE IN DETROIT with little trouble two starts back, then failed to get involved in a tougher race on Belmont Stakes Day; prior graded stakes winner over this course taking big class drop for this. HUSBAND’S FOLLY may not be good enough, but he’s a big price from a good post, and he ran two good races in a row when finally back to turf earlier this year, before trying to go longer in a pace-less race, and then getting rained off last time.

SIXTH RACE

HAVE AT IT is out of a dam who was a sprinter, but she was a good one who won a graded stakes race on turf, and he is a Kitten’s Joy, anyway; Clement aces with 2yos debuting in turf routes, especially up here (4 for his last 11, 36%, $7.03 ROI, including a 6:1 winner last Sunday). LONE SENTRY a homebred with a big pedigree being a half to four turf winners, including Grade 1 Gulfstream Park Turf hero Lukes Alley; trainer doesn’t have much of a history with first time starters (2 for 30 over the past five years with all firsters) but does a solid job overall. CHANNEL CAT went greenly in his sprint debut before failing to close down a front-running winner who held an experience edge; stretches out. SPORTSWEAR a Frankel colt debuting for Chad Brown with distance pedigree on the dam side.

SEVENTH RACE

COAL TRUTH debuts for Chad Brown, who does good work with his first time starters, and this one lands in a field where the few experienced runners fail to inspire; dam is a sister to a Grade 1 winner on turf, but this is the family of top dirt horses Stellar Jayne and Starrer. WYATT’S TOWN has a race, and he tried to show some speed from the rail in that shorter sprint but just wasn’t fast enough, before getting into a bit of a tight spot late; distance can help him, as can the experience as he breaks from the rail once again. COLTANDMISSISSIPPI drawn outside with long series of works showing in lead up to his debut for Pletcher; $400k weanling purchase should be fit enough to go the seven, and his dam did win the first three starts of her career. MY CHINUMADO goes for low-profile connections, but he brings solid-looking line up of works into his debut, and he has some pedigree behind him being out of a mare who is a sister to a pair of Grade 1 winners; some things to like and what figures to be a big price.

EIGHTH RACE

ALL IN FUN finds stakes comapny too tough, but she fits well at this level, and thought she went deceptively well last time on a pace that was not slow, before failing to hold closer Bar of Gold and the talented Grand Jete at the end. OFF LIMITS was unlucky more than once while disappointing a bit last year, but she appeared to take a step forward in her return from the layoff, and she may have been best last time, as well, after a wide trip into a slow pace. SHAKE DOWN BABY was a couple of photos away from putting together a three race win streak in stakes company as a 3yo; makes second start back after even finish through that long stretch at Woodbine off the bench.

NINTH RACE

CERRO returned to sprinting on dirt and won both starts off the layoff out of town, the first with an impressive late run from off the pace, and the second with a pace-tracking style; wet track helps but he doesn’t need one, and he ran well twice up here last year without winning. GIFT BOX never quite panned out as a 3yo, and this does appear to be an odd spot for to start back in six-furlong sprint, but he has shown flashes of real talent, and he fired a big one off the layoff last year, albeit going longer. LEWYS VAPORIZER got caught up in a fast pace and was nowhere when trying stakes company up here last summer; owns dangerous speed in more manageable spot, though there is some other pace for him to deal with.

TENTH RACE

BALLAGH ROCKS received a clever ride to pick up graded stakes win in the Poker last time, but he was placed close to a solid pace before taking over and prevailing, and he was improving right along leading up to that win; not so sure he didn’t run every bit as well as AMERICAN PATRIOT in that Keeneland Grade 1 back in April, and he may offer value in well-matched field where trips may come into play. WORLD APPROVAL disappointed in the Manhattan after getting off to a good start to the year; like him cutting back to this shorter trip, and he has enough positional speed to get right up close to a likely over-matched pace-setter. TIME TEST arrived with a reputation, but he gave away a win without excuse in the Fort Marcy, and he would have won that Manhattan last time if he was as advertised; don’t mind the cut back for him, but he’s tough to want at any short price. DISCO PARTNER will try to go the mile vs. a tougher crew, and around two-turns, after passing distance test last time with a solid figure; interesting if he can keep it going.

ELEVENTH RACE

GRAND VALOUR lands in good field for a first time starter, and he is a full brother to a three-time turf winner; trainer 8 for 19 with first time starters in maiden claiming races so far this year. DAB was done in by vacating the gold rail when dropped in class here last time and settled for second-best at the end; repeat of lone start sprinting on turf makes him hard to beat, though that was over seven furlongs. SHADES OF BROWN needs some scratches to get in, but would be willing to give him another chance after setting that fast pace in his turf debut last time.