ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, GIRL DOWNSTAIRS

FIRST RACE

One final drop to maiden-20 should be enough for SPINYATTA. She missed by a nose in a maiden30 last out, her speed figures tower over the field. Two knocks, however. She is not particularly quick, and her odds will be low. First-time starter WICKED OLD FASHION makes her debut in a shallow field, for a stable that can pop with this type. Trainer Bob Hess Jr. is 4-for-16 with maiden-claiming first-timers at Del Mar the past three years (summer-fall combined), including three ridden by Kent Desormeaux. ‘FASHION is out of a dam that produced four winners including stakes winner Curiously Sweet. Slow works are normal for this outfit; consider the filly “live” first time out. PRETTY EXPENSIVE broke slowly in her debut, produced no speed at all, and finished well on the far outside to miss by only a neck. Improvement is possible second out. CALIFORNIASUMMER has some speed, in a race without much of that.

SECOND RACE

Claimed from a runner-up finish for $25k, entered back for $16k, NEXT SPEAKER has a dubious pattern. Aside from the claim-and-drop red flag, the veteran gelding might be the “best horse” in the field. The Pleasanton race in which he finished second turned out productive: one nextout winner, two next-out runners-up. ‘SPEAKER is 11-for-42,with speed to be forwardly placed. AIRFOIL prepped in a $16k claiming starter, finishing an okay fourth while racing for the first time in nearly a year. He could improve second start back, dropping in for a tag. PEDRO CERRANO disappointed in his comeback, off the board without a visible alibi. That was his first start of the year; he could move forward second time out. Speed has been good recently at this six and one-half furlong distance. FRAC CANDY wired $12.5k claiming sprinters opening week, and was claimed. He is a threat right back.

THIRD RACE

The 5-for-22 pro GIRL DOWNSTAIRS enters this N2X turf route as the most probable winner on the Saturday card. She rallied to decisive win last out in a slow-pace N1X, her figures are consistently higher than her rivals, she has a versatile running style and she has a top turf rider in Corey Nakatani (one-two in 10 of 21 this summer on grass). Sharp mare with a finishing kick can fire right back. NODIAC is due for a good trip. She was blocked in the lane two back; she lost ground rallying wide last time and missed by only a half-length. The deep closer will be rolling late. Her rider Flavien Prat is due to break out. Among the top grass riders on the circuit, Prat this summer is 3-for-40 on turf (through Thursday), with 7 seconds and 8 thirds. Expect the second half of the meet to be better than the first half. SPACE CADET makes her second start back from a layoff. She was compromised by the “race shape” last out. She pressed the pace and backed up in a race dominated by closers. BARLEYSUGAR might be ranked too low. The comebacker runs well fresh, and likes the Del Mar turf course.

FOURTH RACE

RIZZI’S HONORS drops in class, adds blinkers, worked fast since raced and looks like the controlling speed. This is the first time she has raced at the bottom level for winners ($16k claiming N2L). Speed has been good at this six and onehalf furlong distance. Through Thursday, 8 of the last 9 races at this distance were won by a horse positioned first or second after the opening quarter-mile. SWEETWATER GAL ran well here last summer, and scored a decent maiden-20 comeback her most recent start in May. First start since, proven fresh, and speed to keep the top choice in her sights. YOU’RE THE REASON looms an upset

candidate. She bobbled at the beak last out, and did not get involved thereafter. With a clean start, improvement is possible. AMY JEAN drops to the bottom for first time.

FIFTH RACE

FOREST BLUE was hammered by bettors all three recent starts, and is likely to be hammered again. The gelding exits highly rated races at Santa Anita, his speed figures top the field, he has a forwardly placed running style and he is facing easier. Based purely on numbers, he stands out. The challenge is to reproduce Santa Anita form over the slower Del Mar surface. LOS BORRACHOS ships in for the ship-and-win bonus (30 percent purse boost), while dropping from better races in New York. He will be rolling late. Past performance trivia: LOS BORRACHOS previously was based in California; he finished second behind Melatonin in a Santa Anita maiden race in winter 2014, and later that season was unplaced in the G1 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. WHERE Y’AT JOE JOE moves up a notch following an okay runner-up finish for $20k. ALLEY BOSS is down a notch after an okay runnerup finish for $32k.

SIXTH RACE

SALIENT is poised to upset this turf sprint, Calbred N1X. His ninth-place comeback three weeks ago was much better than it looks. He broke from an outside post, was caught five-wide through the turn, loomed a threat into the lane, then lost his punch. Under the circumstances, he actually ran well to miss by only four lengths. He moves from post 10 to post 3, has a versatile running style, and could tuck into a ground-saving trip just off the speed. JET SET MAN finished second in the race the top choice exits. He chased the fast pace, rallied outside and got nailed by a head. Sharp gelding in good form, logical contender. A NEW TREND is pure speed, benefitting from a cutback in distance to five furlongs. However, he faces a tough pace rival in CHIEF HOSA, who set a blazing pace in the race the top two exit, and only got worn down late from the inside post, CHIEF HOSA probably is the one to catch. A NEW TREND will be breathing down his neck. VERSANTE adds speed.

SEVENTH RACE

Overanalyze is making a splash as a stallion; he already has a dozen 2yo winners in his first crop. BEYOND PLEASURE could be another. The debut filly capped her work pattern with a fast threefurlong gate work Wednesday that suggests she is quick. Racing five furlongs first out, the Hesstrained filly should come out firing. FANTASTIC GIRL debuts with a solid workout pattern for John Sadler. Sired by Pioneerof the Nile, she was purchased for $550k at a 2yo sale in March. SHE’S FUNNY is a Tapit first-time starter produced by 11-for-23 millionaire G1 winner Hystericalady. PIED BIANCHI might be ranked too low. She has something the top three lack. That is, a race under her belt. The second-start filly, another sired by Overanalyze, finsihed a creditable second in her debut. STEPH BEING STEPH has fast works.

EIGHTH RACE

A third-place finish in the Oceanside Stakes makes CARIBOU CLUB the one to beat in this first-level turf allowance for 3yos. However, FORTUNE OF WAR looms an upset candidate. He rallied wide and lost his punch in the Oceanside, which was his first start in nearly three months. He ran like a horse that needed a start. Now that he has a race under his belt, expect a forward move. He is reunited with Gary Stevens, co-leading turf rider this summer (6 for 19). KENCUMIN makes his U.S. debut with a solid workout pattern; HARBOUR MASTER broke from an impossible post (13) in the Oceanside, and finished last. That was his comeback; he has a right to improve. His rider is Kent Desormeaux, tied with Stevens as leading turf rider through Wednesday.

NINTH RACE

RUN AWAY worked well since his impressive score last month in the Santa Anita Juvenile. He is quick enough to establish position after breaking from the rail, and the one they all have to catch in this graded stakes for 2yos. Favorites won the last four editions of this race; 16 of 22 winning favorites since 1995. However, the romping last-out maiden win by SERENGETI stamps him as a worthy rival for the chalk. SERENGETI won by 11 lengths, trained fast since, and should be positioned close to the top choice. FLEETWOOD finished nearly five lengths clear of third in his runner-up debut. He and maiden-70 winner AN OCALA TEN are the only starters that have a race over the track.

TENTH RACE

KAZAN was well-backed in his debut early last month, and ran well. He broke slowly, lost ground rallying wide, and finished a respectable third. The maiden 2yo should improve, second time out. DATA CENTRAL finished fourth in the same race, and also is expected to move forward second out. Trainer Keith Desormeaux is loaded with 2yos this year. First-time starter BIG BUZZ is a full brother to stakes winner Big Score, who won his career debut here last summer. Both trained by Tim Yakteen. 2260 Jimmy Durante Blvd. Del Mar, CA 92014 (858) 755-1141 Main track: One Mile, oval. Turf course: Seven eighths mile. Distance from last turn to finish line: 919 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ WPS - 15.43% ■ Double - 20% ■ Exacta, Quinella - 22.68% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6 - 23.68% ■ Pick 5 - 14%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.