ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MY BOY TATE

FIRST RACE

FRIEND OF LIBERTY has been facing much better fields out of town, including the multiple stakes winner Chanel’s Legacy going long two starts back, and Sister Kan, who has finished first in her last four starts including a blowout win at Indiana Grand on Thursday; dropping off the claim, but doing so as a four-time winner in a field where most of her rivals have only one, and as the owner of the top five Beyer Speed Figures in the field. MAKEALITTLELOVE’s top figure came in the slop, but her best performance came in that last start up here where she was whacking out a fast early pace in a race that ultimately went to closers; tougher if able to get more comfortable up there this time. GOBI was outrun early and trying to close behind MAKEALITTLELOVE last time, but was out-kicked by the 1-2 finishers before failing to get up for a piece; kept closer to a legit pace in that win at Aqueduct back in April.

SECOND RACE

MISS MO MENTUM improved when stretched out on turf for her second start, but bumped into a better horse in Orbolution and settled for a clearcut second-best; figures tough here unless one of the firsters can run. CASH OUT may not be the most fancied of the first time starters for trainer who doesn’t crank them up (Arnold 4 for his last 111 with first time starters), but she is a half to three turf winners and she is perfectly drawn down on the inside. KINGDOM’S QUEEN breaking from the outside, but it will only be post eight, at worst, assuming we are on the turf, and she has plenty of pedigree as a daughter of Grade 3 turf winner Ruff, and a half to Mr Gruff (multiple graded stakes wins down the hill at Santa Anita). Be no surprise to find NIGHT OWL showing some ability in her debut for Chad; Animal Kingdom already has a 2yo turf winner at the meet, and there is plenty of class on the damside of her pedigree, though it’s mostly dirt.

THIRD RACE

C ISLANDSURPRISE has been at her best in elongated one-turn races, especially in the claiming ranks; turns back a bit from a nice post for trainer who is 2 for 2 off the claim with dirt horses so far this year, including a win here with a 6:1 shot, also ridden by Saez. SHES A TRUE BEAUTY turf to dirt and cutting back after bit of a troubled trip on turf last time; went well on dirt up here as a three year old despite not winning. KELSOCAIT has so far not managed to last the seven furlongs, but she is dropping with dangerous speed in a race without much other pace signed on.

FOURTH RACE

TWENTY FOUR SEVEN just starting back off the layoff, but doing so for trainer off to a good start at the meet; liked the form he was in prior to hitting the sidelines, including that win up here last summer where she had to come wide to get a run before closing that race down. TUSK getting the right kind of drop after knocking out his 1x condition at Laurel; lack of early speed is the main concern in field without much speed signed on. HALLOWEEN HORROR was given the right kind of trip in race that was wired on a solid pace opening weekend, but that was still a nice effort to just miss 2nd in first start for this trainer; can keep himself closer to the front this time if the pace isn’t as fast.

FIFTH RACE

MY BOY TATE sprinting for the first time off a layoff, but he has displayed a nice turn of foot in his first three races going longer, and he was

badly compromised last time when trying to reach a front-running winner over an inside, speed-favoring track; six may be a bit sharp, but he looks tough in this spot unless one of the firsters can go.

DWIZARD seems most likely of those to be a talent as a half to the Grade 1 sprinters Dads Caps and Paulassilverlining; trainer does an excellent job overall but is 2 for her last 41 with older (three and up) first time starters. DEVILRY the first foal from a dam who went winless in seven career starts, but he still brought $75k as a yearling; good works on the way in for top connections.

SIXTH RACE

MO PROMISE turned back in what appeared to be a good-looking spot here on opening day, but she lacked speed winding up last on the rail, before having to try to do it through a bit of traffic in the stretch; did like her debut over this course and distance as a 2yo, so will give her her one more chance in race where the others fail to inspire, though would like to see her more forward this time. TIFFANYS FREUD improved to win on the drop two starts back, then backed that race up well when falling just short ahead in her next start with several of these beind her; can contend with similar stuff. LAURA’S PATRIOT has a late-running style that works against her more often than not, and she has been firing vs. some better fields since returning from the layoff with no wins to show for it; tries again. WANTAGH QUEEN outfinished LAURA’S PATRIOT on July 1st in a race that featured a nice set up for the closers; perfect trip last time but wasn’t quite good enough vs. a better group.

SEVENTH RACE

Something went wrong in that last one over in France, but PAS DE SOUCIS was an improved horse as a 3yo and ran the best race of her career to win that stake over a couple of these horses last October; Chad tough with foreign shippers on turf, especially when adding lasix over this track: 5 for 9 over the past five meets, 56%, $4.86 ROI. GALILEO’S SONG just starting back, and may want a bit more ground to work with, but she was a progressive 3yo who acquitted herself well in stakes company prior to getting break. NOW POWER showed her speed from the outside post but got hung up wide around the first turn before pressing/contesting the pace and tiring on opening weekend; appears to be in a race here where she can clear the front with little trouble. SPIGA got rank in her stateside debut, where she was no match for the talented Grand Jete anyway, then improved in her next start to close down a slow pace.

EIGHTH RACE

COPPER BULLET just 1 for his first 3 to start, but he has run well in all of them, and he got the best of the draw on the outside in race where he can put his experience into play; done in by an indecisive ride in the Bashford Manor, which allowed the talented winner of that race to get the jump on him. Not sure what he has been beating at Gulfstream, but DIAMOND OOPS overcame a slow start to easily power down an odds-on Pletcher favorite in his debut, and he came right back with an even better effort to win that minor stake last time from just off the pace; good test for him here. BARRY LEE could hardly have been more impressive than he was in winning his Laurel debut, where he flashed easy speed before running away from challengers who were stacking up to his outside early on; picks up an extra 3/16ths, but he may be fastest early in this field.

NINTH RACE

FIRST APPEAL three for three on grass since the claim, and she handled the shorter distance of the sprints up here just fine when closing strongly from off the pace 10 days ago; not sure she didn’t beat a better field in that one that she’ll be facing here. NOBLE FREUD an unknown on turf, and she is all dirt on the dam-side of her pedigree, but she’s a Freud and she’s clearly the best speed in this field; unlikely to be caught if she takes to the grass. SAME KINDA CRAZY wound up at the back of that field last time before racing on gamely too late; blinkers on for filly who won a race up here last summer while keeping closer to the pace.

TENTH RACE

ADMIRALS COVE made a deceptive run while wide to almost reach contention and then started getting in through the stretch in his debut, and just got outrun by the talented Cerise’s Prince in his second start; drops with blinkers on. DATA ROOM the horse to beat taking the drop for leading trainer; defeated as the favorite last time, but there was no pace in that race with everyone taking a hold early on; good post. STREET REVIEW failed to factor in his 3yo debut on turf, and he tried a pretty tough spot on the main track last time; back to turf on the drop, this time with lasix and blinkers on.