ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, FIRE AWAY

FIRST RACE

MUTASAAWY a recent convert to jumping, but he appears to have taken to it quickly based on his first two attempts; logical spot for him to take the next step. KREMLIN switched to jumping off the claim for top trainer last year, and he improved right along before notching initial win over hurdles two start back; drops into easier race after facing tougher in his Saratoga debut. ANY GIVEN ROYAL dropping out of that same tougher race to face two-life rivals and reuniting with rider he has had success with in the past.

SECOND RACE

POWERFUL ALLY stretched to this distance for the first time on opening weekend and made a strong run around the outside from last to be 3rd in a solid field; managed to keep closer early in his first two starts, and he may not be facing as tough a field this time. D’AMBROSIO finished behind his stablemate SPIETH when they were sent the one-turn mile on July 3rd at Belmont, but he made an early move to the lead after failing to break sharply in that race, and think that cost him at the end; can cut the pace as he stretches out to tougher distance while picking up Castellano. SPIETH sat a nice trip in that race before picking off D’AMBROSIO for 2nd while making his first start off the layoff; good sign for him that he earned new top figure in his 3yo debut.

THIRD RACE

FIRE AWAY stretching out after finishing gamely to just miss 3rd in the Lure here 11 days ago, but actually prefer him over these longer distances based on improved form as a 3yo once he got some additional ground to work with; good sign that he is back in regular racing this year after missing the majority of 2016. MUQTASER received an excellent ride with Bravo sensing the slow pace and taking early control here on opening day, and he gamely held on to his advantage through the stretch; better turf horse, and he comes right back in another spot where he is supposed to be tough. STREET FASHION and HOLIDAY STAR form a solid entry for Motion, though only one will start with Ortiz named on both. STREET FASHION seems more likely to go and to be effective, as he has the recent races underneath him, and he was a winner going long up here last summer. HOLIDAY STAR is the better horse, but hard to think we’ll be getting his best race after nearly two years on the sidelines.

FOURTH RACE

LADY DEVIL has been concentrating on turf this year, but she’s not very good on that surface; switches back to dirt off the trainer change, and while there is limited form on this surface to go on, she did run well up here in her debut as a 2yo, and her only recent start on dirt came in her return from an extended layoff. Good race for a horse like her, and it seems likely that her entrymate will scratch for a similar spot on Thursday. LADY CONSTANCE drops back down and turns back in distance after cutting the pace and just missing over a mile at Ellis Park last time; has had her chances already, but has been facing better horses for the most part, and six furlongs may be her best distance. B THREE has made her last four starts going long on turf to no avail; faces claiming company for the first time on dirt as she turns back in distance for her second start off the claim.

FIFTH RACE

TEN EYCK facing some experienced rivals as he makes his career debut from the outside post, but it’s not as though any of them are very scary based on what they’ve managed to show so far; not much immediate pedigree to go one as the first foal from an 0-9 dam, but he is bred for turf on both sides

for a trainer who can win with a firster, and his second dam is a sister to The Name’s Jimmy, a graded stakes winner on grass, MY MR. WONDERFUL probably the experienced most deserving of another chance as he showed speed and just failed to last while hanging on his wrong lead in debut that was rained off to the main track; Violette aces with 2yo first time starters, but is just 4 for his last 42 ($0.84 ROI) with second time starters who are still maidens. LAKE PARTY debuted in a solid field on dirt at Belmont, and raced on late without threat after getting out-paced early; switches to turf for second start. JOE’S SMOKIN GUN has the advantage of a prior race over turf, which is the surface he is bred for, though he didn’t run a particularly compelling race there while managing to finish 2nd.

SIXTH RACE

SARATOGA WILDCAT has made last two starts over turf and mud, neither of which are his preferred footing; has run well over this track at each of the last two meets and was re-claimed out of his last race by Rudy, for whom he has won five of ten starts over a couple of different stints dating back to last year. OLD UPSTART turns back after winning last two starts, and three of his last four, going longer; capable sprinter defeated $50k claimers over this distance up here last summer, and his new trainer is solid off the claim. PADEN closed in too late over this distance last time, but he owns a versatile running style, and will likely stay closer here in race featuring little confirmed speed; win two back came in race scheduled for turf, but he earned that one while repelling multiple challenges.

SEVENTH RACE

COMMEND turned back to post strong win while overcoming dynamics two starts back, and he simply got in too tough vs. the likes of Green Mask in the Highlander last time, though he still ran his race; prefer him over mate VICI, though they form a strong entry. ZOOT SUIT improved through the winter for underrated trainer before finally breaking through with a second career win two starts back; took advantage of an easy pace scenario to post new top figure on dirt last time, but he’s better on this surface and his tactical speed may play in here. AMELIA’S WILD RIDE drops after failing to run well in his last two starts vs. better horses, but his first start back from that long layoff wasn’t terrible, and he has races from 2015 and early last year that would likely be too much for this field; expect to see some speed out of him if he can still run.

EIGHTH RACE

Not sure why NO TEXTING, who has speed, was last early in race that was holding together up front on June 29th, but he had little chance of making a big impact on that race after swinging clear in the stretch; can go with this field if returning with one of his better turf efforts, and he should be forwardly placed this time. MOBRIDGE got forward and into a perfect trip tracking a longshot leader while NO TEXTING sat last in that race, and he dug in gamely to see off an odds-on favorite with momentum in the stretch; logical here even if he’s not a very interesting bet at a short price. DAMAGE CONTROL the third entrant exiting that 6/29 race, and he simply wasn’t good enough there after an inside tracking trip while making just his second start on turf; Irad apparently opted for him over stablemate NO TEXTING.

NINTH RACE

MARCH X PRESS facing better in Bolton Landing following debut win here two weeks ago, but she was impressive winning that one from last-to-first after a slow start, and ndafter only getting fully clear outside the eighth pole; interesting right back in race that is not lacking for pace. SLY BEAUTY one of the likely speeds after grabbing the front and staying on through that long Woodbine stretch to win her turf debut over yielding ground; went favored over the talented Dream It Is in her first start up there. LIFE TIME CITIZEN a wildcard transferring to capable trainer and switching back to turf for NY debut; put away an odds-on favorite before kicking away to a big win in her lone turf start to date. Didn’t love debut win from FAIRYLAND at Keeneland, which came on the main track, but she prevailed there before heading over to Ascot for Wesley Ward; blinkers back on for her return.

TENTH RACE

IRST never panned out after a somewhat promising debut up here last summer, though in his defense he hasn’t really managed to put races together for Pletcher; nothing on turf last time, so turns back on dirt and drops in for Pletcher, who has strong numbers with this move (past five years, MSWto-MCL drop, turf-to-dirt: 10 for 21, 48%, %3.83 ROI - 6 for 13 in races scheduled for dirt and not turf rain-offs). BORSA VENTO was terrible on the drop here nine days ago; has better races than that in his past, and will need to bring one of those to be competitive this time as he drops again. HEADLINER has failed to factor in first two starts at the MSW level vs. good horses; drops for the first time and has apparently been gelded since his last race. Union Avenue Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 (518) 584-6200 Main track: One and one-eighths mile, oval. Mellon turf course: One mile, 98 feet. Inner turf course: Seven Furlongs, 304 feet. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,144 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick 4 and Superfecta wagering: 24% ■ Pick 5 wagering: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering: 24% (15% on non-carryover days)