ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, DO THE MATH

FIRST RACE

LEO’S TURN has worked okay on the Tapeta in preparation for his debut, and the son of good turf sire Leonnatus Anteas seems well-spotted in this $20K grass sprint. Campbell and trainer Paul Buttigieg are a combined 5 for 15 at the meet. HEAD HUNTER hit the board in both of his turf sprints. You can draw a line through his wide sixth two starts back going a mile on the lawn vs. $32K maidens. LAST WAN is plunging from OS maiden special/$40K company to where he belongs, while turning back from a route to six furlongs. BRAVE VOUKEFALAS is another first-timer by Leonnatus Anteas with some good drills on his work tab.

SECOND RACE

SWEET CITY WOMAN placed in three of her four outings at this level at the meet, and a tardy start led to her subpar performance most recently. Hernandez picks up the mount on the daughter of Giant Gizmo. PATMOS just missed in her penultimate start, and she went too fast up front before tiring in her latest. ZDENKA closed wide for second when cutting back to seven-eighths July 28. Use the 1 for 50 mare on the bottom of the exotics, along with SHEZTENTHEHARDWAY.

THIRD RACE

PRINCESS NIIGON is taking a noteworthy drop from $40K to this $20K NW2 turf sprint. With blinkers on, she could be the dominant speed for a trainer who’s having a productive first half of the meet. KATRINA’S WAY is back at the price for which she was claimed off a fade job for $40K. Her trainer has a 25% strike rate second-time off the claim over the past two years ($3.04 ROI). KHAWLAH could challenge from off the pace on the turnback from a mile and a sixteenth. Use her underneath in the gimmicks, along with DONNAS SWEET HEART.

FOURTH RACE

DANCEFORACOZ was in poor form when he went to the sidelines in the fall, but the 5yo figures to be rejuvenated off a long layoff, in his first try for a trainer with impressive stats with new shooters. A hot Contreras will ride him for the first time. NEVER WORN is back on the surface over which he graduated in June after running lukewarm and cold on the grass. His inside draw isn’t ideal, but he’s among the more likely ones. BOYS CLUB is plunging to the lower conditioned ranks off a lackluster turf experiment, and wouldn’t be much of a surprise. Toss EASTER GOLD in the super.

FIFTH RACE

HEADS ‘N TAILS improved from fourth to second at second asking July 22, when she dueled up front before giving way in the last sixteenth. She’s worked five-eighths in the interim, and might be on the brink of a breakthrough. DILLY DALLY DARBY didn’t show much when returning from an extended layoff in the aforementioned event, a race the stakes-placed filly probably needed. Her trainer has respectable numbers with first-time blinkers. JUPITER’S EAGLE placed in half of her six outings. A wide journey led to a subpar showing most recently. FORESTELLA is another candidate for the lower rungs of the exotics.

SIXTH RACE

CRUMLIN QUEEN romped in a NW2 OS allowance on the Tapeta on a Wednesday night a month ago. She was overmatched just 11 days later, when fourth in the 10-furlong Wonder Where Stakes on turf, and is meeting easier on fairly short rest once again in this OS stakes on the main track. LISTENLINDALISTEN set slow fractions on an uncontested lead en route to a daylight score two weeks ago in the seven-furlong Passing Mood Stakes, which was taken off the turf at the last minute. She’s trying a two-turn distance for the first time, and could make most of the running if HAILEY’S PRIZE leaves her alone up front. KADLEY is coming into this acid test fresh off a closing third on the grass, and could pick up some of the pieces. MISSY CRISSY is another fresh runner who could have a say in the outcome.

SEVENTH RACE

CLEVER SOUL pressed the pace en route to a narrow loss in a turf route at this class and distance July 7. He’s out of jail while competing off the claim by a trainer who possesses excellent numbers first-

time off the halter switch. ROCKET PLAN is back on the surface over which he graduated following an improved third-place finish behind the two favorites on the lawn. Contreras knows him better now. Firsttime gelding LEOPARD CAT is descending from $40K for his first non-turf start, and should be in the hunt with leading rider Da Silva back in the saddle.

EIGHTH RACE

DO THE MATH faded to fourth behind a winner who came back to double up vs. $16K opposition (76 Beyer) in a recent $12.5K seller. He’s descending to the $8K level at which he was claimed, and his red-hot trainer has won at a 26% clip second-time off the claim during the last five years ($2.08 ROI). GENTLEMAN JACKSON rallied wide for second behind the dropping favorite two weeks ago in his best performance since his victorious season opener. KAYEZ ran two solid races against conditioned company in July. Contreras inherits the mount on him from Boulanger, who’s sticking with the comebacker GRAND MIXTURE.