Elate can get good position in Alabama

NEW YORK – Arrogate, the world’s best horse despite his mysterious non-effort in last month’s San Diego Handicap, looks to rebound in Saturday’s biggest race of the day, the Grade 1, $1 million Pacific Classic. The Pacific Classic, the high point of the Del Mar meet, tops a card that also includes the Grade 1, $300,000 Del Mar Oaks and the Grade 2, $250,000 Del Mar Handicap.

The main event at Saratoga is the Grade 1, $600,000 Alabama Stakes, supported by the Grade 2, $300,000 Lake Placid.

Alabama Stakes

There is a lot going on in this race. Let’s talk about some key members of this field in post-position order.

New Money Honey is the most accomplished 3-year-old turf filly in the land, having won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last fall and the Belmont Oaks most recently, but this will be her first attempt on dirt.

Holy Helena beat 12 males when she won the Queen’s Plate and 11 fillies when she won the Woodbine Oaks in her last two starts. But it’s an open question if she beat anyone good in those wins, which came on synthetic, not dirt.

Lockdown stumbled at the start and had no pace to rally into when second in the Mother Goose. But she might not get pace this time, either, and might not want the Alabama’s 10 furlongs.

Unchained Melody was a decisive winner of the Mother Goose after enjoying an easy, uncontested early lead. She not only stretches out to two turns for the first time but also stretches out significantly in distance.

Salty ran very respectably in the Coaching Club American Oaks and Kentucky Oaks despite tough trips in both races. That said, 1 1/4 miles seems like a big stretch for her.

Elate was a narrowly beaten second in the CCA Oaks to leading 3-year-old filly Abel Tasman, but it’s unclear if she ran well because she’s improving or because she had a better trip than Abel Tasman or Salty.

No one should be surprised if Unchained Melody gets loose early in Saturday’s race, like she did in the Mother Goose, and rides that advantage to another score. But I view the Alabama’s distance as an equalizer, and I’m going with Elate.

I like that Elate, who could have been placed first in the CCA Oaks after being put in tight late by Abel Tasman, comes off a sharp effort going two turns over Saratoga’s main track and showed enough early foot that day to put her in a good early position Saturday.

Del Mar Handicap

At first glance, it might appear that Itsinthepost has slipped from the sharp form he held earlier this year with fifth-place finishes in his last two starts. I suggest giving him another look.

Itsinthepost made an ill-advised four-wide move into the second turn in the Charles Whittingham Stakes two starts back, and engaged in a ridiculous speed duel with Beach Patrol in the United Nations last out. Beach Patrol rebounded from that bizarre encounter to win last week’s Arlington Million, and I’m anticipating a similar rebound from Itsinthepost.

◗ Value comes in many forms, and if Arrogate’s closing odds are close to his evenmoney morning line, he would, in my eyes, represent real value. That is because as sharp as Collected and Accelerate are right now, if the real Arrogate shows up, he will crush them, especially going a 10-furlong distance that he adores. Arrogate, one of the best horses seen in years, is just that much better than anyone else.

Put another way, if you think it’s better than a 50/50 shot that the real Arrogate will show up in the Pacific Classic, then odds of even-money would be generous.

Play the King Stakes

This juicy turf-sprint feature at Woodbine has a Chad Brown horse (Tombelaine), an interesting turnback (Conquest Panthera), two local sharpies (Calgary Cat and Tower of Texas), and the perfunctory Wesley Ward representative (Hootenanny). But I like Dowse’s Beach.

Dowse’s Beach was claimed three starts back by trainer Brad Cox. And he didn’t merely win his two subsequent starts, he did so in strong fashion, earning successive career-best Beyer Speed Figures. Moreover, Dowse’s Beach projects to control the early pace, just like he did in his first two victories for his new connections. Wire to wire.