ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, TYFOSHA

FIRST RACE

The “first-time starter” SOUTHERN THUNDER may have raced, and run well, on the unrecognized Utah bush circuit. That would give him a license to upset this maiden-claiming sprint. ‘THUNDER entered the Beaver Derby on July 24 at Canyon Breeze Training Center (CBT) in Utah. Results for CBT races are not published, except as “workouts” in past performances. ‘THUNDER was given a 1:29.60 work time for seven furlongs on July 24, second-fastest of four works at the distance. In all likelihood, the work was a runner-up finish in the four-runner Beaver Derby. He ships to Del Mar for his career “debut,” meets a weak field of locals, might have more experience than a typical first-time starter, and can post an upset. BUCKY GOLDSTEIN drops from maiden-40 to maiden-20, adds blinkers, makes his second start back from a layoff, and has enough speed to be involved early. HOPPITTY showed speed and faded in a route, and now shortens to a sprint.

SECOND RACE

PRIME ISSUE is on a roll, seeking his third straight in this N2X sprint. He set blistering fractions and crushed claiming and N1X foes his last two. He gets in light with apprentice rider Evin Roman, ‘ISSUE is the speed of the field. They must catch him to beat him. He is trained by Peter Miller, who also entered DISTINCTIVE B. The latter dueled on a fast pace at this N2X level last out, and finished a clear second. He and his stablemate could make it a parade. LORD SIMBA is a G3 winner with a sharp work tab for his return. AMERICAN PASTIME misfired without a visible alibi opening week. Perhaps he deserves another chance. His previous races were strong. TAMAN GUARD is back doing what he does best, which is sprint. COASTLINE will be outrun early, and rally late in a race that could unfold in favor of his closing style.

THIRD RACE

An evenly matched field entered this N1X turf mile; RECORD HIGHS ran better last out than the sixthplace finish suggests. Previously a front-runner, he rallied from behind, was stalled in traffic into the lane, missed by only two and one-half lengths, and galloped out big past the wire. Good effort, better than it looks on paper. EL TOVAR wheels back in 13 days and stretches to a mile. He might be best as a closing sprinter, but in his sharp form might stay the mile trip. FRITZ JOHANSEN exits the same race as the top choice. ‘FRITZ got briefly stalled in traffic, then appeared to be passively ridden through the lane. His form might be better than it looks. AT EASE will rally from the clouds; CALVERT STREET has speed and might be the one they have to catch.

FOURTH RACE

Third last out in a restricted $25k claiming sprint, SPECIAL STORY drops to rock bottom ($16k claiming, N2L) with speed to be forwardly placed. AEON returns from a layoff of nearly six months, while taking an even bigger drop than the top choice. Third in two of his last three starts in maiden-40 starter allowance races, he is racing at the bottom for the first time. MT. LEINSTER returns from a five-month layoff, first off the claim by Bill Spawr. The gelding is an automatic contender on the trainer angle. TRUE RANGER finished in the money seven straight at this level. He will be picking up the pieces again.

FIFTH RACE

AUSSIE FOX ran super last out in his first route, third by a half-length, and is spotted for a maiden win in this turf route. He was “used” from post 11, set the pace in a strung-out field, battled the length of the lane, and only tired late. Big effort by the improv-

ing colt, who landed the rail this time and should tuck into a cozy trip forwardly placed while saving ground. He will not need to be “sent.” LUCKY SOUL finished a modest third last out. It was just an okay comeback, nothing more. He will roll late in just the fourth start of his career. LANGHAM was always well-regarded, but the $460k yearling has been unable to get his career off the ground. He finished second in a promising debut here last summer, then disappeared. He returned in March, ran flat, and disappeared again. This is his third try. Good works, bad post, but his runner-up debut a year ago was solid and makes him a contender. CASCADE ROCK pressed the top choice, and finished a halflength in front of him. Beaten only a nose, ‘ROCK might be placed too low by this handicapper.

SIXTH RACE

The first leg of the pick six begins with the most probable winner on the card. TYFOSHA looks like a “single” based on a pair of highly rated runnerup finishes. She finished behind next-start stakes winner Surrender Now in her debut, then returned opening day at Del Mar with another runner-up finish in a highly rated maiden race won by Debutante-bound Just a Smidge. Unless one of the firsttime starters has above-average ability, TYFOSHA should win at a short price. MOONSHINE MEMORIES, a $650k yearling by Malibu Moon, makes her career debut for a stable having a big summer. MAPIT flashed speed and backed up in her debut; she can improve. First-time starter CROWNSTONE has a solid workout pattern but drew the rail. Sired by Street Cry, she is a sibling to G1 winner Bandini.

SEVENTH RACE

ITSINTHEPOST can regain his ranking as top longdistance turf horse in California in this mile and three-eighths G2. He won similar races in spring, then ran below expectations his next two. Perhaps he had alibis. Two starts back, he was racing a distance (mile and quarter) shorter than preferred; last out he got revved up early, engaged in a pace duel, and finished fifth. The horse he dueled with (Beach Patrol) returned to win the Arlington Million. ITSINTHEPOST drops in class, and if he avoids a similar pace skirmish, can win with a pressing trip. Favorites are 7-for-11 in this race since 2006; the highest win payoff that period is $11. Up-andcomer HUNT provides the main challenge to the top choice. He earned a career-best figure last out winning the G2 Eddie Read; he acts like he can stretch out another quarter-mile. He faces a tougher group than last out, but is sharp now and making just his third start of the season. Fresh horse on his way up. UP WITH THE BIRDS ran better than the line looks in the Read. Far back early, finished with run, he benefits by the added distance. ASHLEYLUVSSUGAR might be ranked too low by this handicapper. He has been among the top turf runners in California for a long time; five starts on the Del Mar turf produced one win, four seconds. MR. ROARY and PRIME ATTRACTION are the front-runners.

EIGHTH RACE

COLLECTED gets the call to upset stablemate ARROGATE, while the last-out romp by ACCELERATE stamps him as a legitimate contender in an interesting Pacific Classic. COLLECTED won all three this year including a 14-length romp last out, and trained super all summer over the Del Mar surface. This is his first try at a mile and a quarter, same as first-time-mile-and-quarter Beholder and Shared Belief, Pacific Classic winners in 2015 and 2014. A sharp horse in peak form, COLLECTED acts like he will deliver another smasher. As for ARROGATE, his best races are faster than his rivals. But he misfired dramatically here last month; his current form is uncertain. He probably would win he runs his best race, but could be questionable over a surface he may or may not not care for. ACCELERATE added blinkers and crushed the San Diego by more than eight lengths while running the race of his career. A Del Mar horse for course, he has taken his game to a new level this summer. DONWORTH looms the upset candidate, third start back from an extended layoff. HARD ACES will roll late, could sneak into the trifecta if one of the favorites misfires.

NINTH RACE

EDWARDS GOING LEFT was blocked the length of the lane last out in a Cal-bred stakes; BIG LEAGUE dueled on a blistering pace and finished a betterthan-looked second last out in a $50k claiming sprint. Two sharp sprinters tough to separate in this N1X sprint. AMERICANIZE is likely to improve second start back, while TELL ME A STORY returns to a sprint and adds speed.

TENTH RACE

The Del Mar Oaks is the deepest race on the card; lightly raced and improving MEADOWSWEET is poised to upset. Each race better than the one before, her N1X win last out was more impressive than it looks. She was distracted by a passing train at the quarter pole, lugged out and looked like she would be swallowed by her rivals, then re-rallied to hold off a good rival. Solid effort by a versatile filly that should get a good trip positioned just off the speed. Best of all, she should start at a hint of a price. Promising filly on her way up. DREAM DANCING has been facing top 3yo turf fillies on the East Coast; her in-the-money finishes this spring at Belmont and Churchill Downs put her in the hunt. Three of the last four Del Mar Oaks winners shipped in off races at Belmont. KATHY’S SONG looms the upset candidate. An improving allowance filly, she has trained exceptionally well since being sold and transferred to California. BEAU RECALL finished a creditable sixth last out in the G1 Belmont Oaks; these rivals are easier. VEXATIOUS should appreciate a switch to turf. She certainly is bred for the surface, with a running style that suits the closers-friendly profile.

ELEVENTH RACE

MEET AND GREET drew a tough post for a firsttime starter (rail), but her works are solid and this field of Cal-bred maiden fillies and mares did not come up that tough. It looks like the Tribal Rule filly is ready to fire, first time out. The upset candidate PAULA WITH A P finished with run in her sixthplace debut at Pleasanton. Up in class to statebred special-weight, stretches out in distance, will roll late at a big price. LAYNEE could go favored off her okay runner-up finish last out. Slow pace in that race however, yet she squandered a length and one-half lead in the stretch. Respect her ability, but she is far from a cinch in this spot. WARM IT UP has speed, and a longshot chance to steal it.