ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, MR. PETE

FIRST RACE

CODRINGTON came outside after a good trip and tried gamely before settling for second best to a favored Chad Brown firster over this course and distance last time; lone entrant with prior route try under his belt can use the experience to her advantage. PURELY LUCKY was favored for her debut sprinting and she got forward from the gate before winding up back off the pace, and then raced on through the stretch while over toward the inside; can do better as she stretches out for her second start from a nice inside post. MISTY FOREST caught some early traffic down inside before failing to factor in opening day sprint; stretches out with plenty of pedigree to handle it.

SECOND RACE

EYE LUV LULU has an admirable record over wet tracks, though it’s worth pointing out that he is just 1 for his last 7 over courses listed anything other than fast; thought he improved for Rudy following the claim back in February, and want to give give him one more chance on fast dirt following excellent Affirmed Success try where he did most of the hard work before getting closed down by the in-form Celtic Chaos. BUILD TO SUIT lightly-raced with upside, but he may have to improve again to beat this field for trainer who has struggled here over the past week or so; strong effort from off the pace last time. SAMADI SKY failed to impact first two starts off the layoff earlier in the year and went right back to the sidelines, but he was improving from start to start as a 3yo and ended 2016 with a top-figure win; may be able to make an impact at a price if he is ready off the bench.

THIRD RACE

SUNSET RIDGE facing difficult distance stretch-out here, but it may not matter whether she is a true router or not considering the apparent edge she holds over this field; looks loose on the lead, not that she needs a head start. BONITA BIANCA the most likely upsetter with admirable 4-for-6 record and a pair of wins already around two-turns, but she has her work cut out for her against the favorite. SOMEKINDASEXY was no match for BONITA BIANCA in the NY Oaks last time, but she is the only other entrant with a prior win on dirt.

FOURTH RACE

BARBAROSSA flashed good speed to duel the early pace before tiring in his main track debut; switches to turf with pedigree with a trainer change to Pletcher, and his speed coupled with the experience edge may make things hard on this field. SANDLOT STAR a half to a stakes-winning sprinter on dirt, but he has turf on the dam-side of his pedigree and Shanghai Bobby is the sire of the impressive turf sprinter March X Press, who has already won twice up here, including a stakes race; trainer having a nice year with his 2yos. BATTLE STATION by a precocious sire and his unraced dam is a sister to a Grade 3-winning turf sprinter; connections tend to have them ready to go early.

FIFTH RACE

MR. PETE blew the break badly when a rallying 2nd first time out, but he was better with blinkers on last time, and he came with a good finish to close down a not-untalented rival with little trouble; fits here, but a clean start from the rail is imperative. AVEENU MALCAINU was forced to chase a quick pace from the outside right from the start, but he came gamely to power that race down in solid debut run, for which he earned the top figure in this field; big threat right back. WHAT A CATCH was a clear-cut winner over a troubled MR. PETE first time out, and he then stepped forward with more speed to defeat

favored MORNING BREEZ in the Rockville Centre with a 20-point Beyer improvement; good post on the outside of the other speeds.

SIXTH RACE

NEW CANAAN will have to improve upon even debut run as she stretches out for her second start, but not by much, and he has the pedigree to handle the added distance of this race; class drop for top connections helps filly who was a bit green first time out. WISH UPON has had her chances already, but she has run well enough to win a race like this one more than once already; hard to have a lot of confidence in her, but she may be the horse to beat. HARDLY MATE got in late-season 2yo start vs. MSW company at Tampa before going back to the sidelines, and she was okay in that race while chasing the pace from the outside; drops for her return but this is a tough post to overcome.

SEVENTH RACE

FOURSTAR CROOK tough to go against as she looks for nine in a row following strong Grade 3 win out of town most recently; main competition may come from her improved stablemate ACK NAUGHTY, whom she flat overpowered under nothing more than strong handling in the Mount Vernon off the layoff. ACK NAUGHTY struggled to win races early on, but she improved toward the end of 2016, and she looked good rolling over that field of open allowance rivals once clear in the stretch last time; good effort of her own while no match for FOURSTAR CROOK in the Mount Vernon. BAR OF GOLD fine on turf, and getting in with NY-breds on this surface for the first time here, though doubt she finds things any easier in the face of FOURSTAR CROOK; could use some pace to run at, though she is unlikely to kick harder than the top two.

EIGHTH RACE

MISS MYSTIQUE stepping up for trainer who is underrated with 2yos following convincing debut win from off the pace downstate; appeared to get uncomfortable behind horses early on which forced her to give away position, but she still managing to to come with a good finish through the stretch in that first one, and she should find something to run at in this race. I STILL MISS YOU facing some interesting new faces here, but she is the horse to beat with the top two figures in the field on the way in; odds-on loss was initially disappointing in a short field last time, though the winner did come back to win the Grade 2 Adirondack with a Beyer of 84. TROUBLE FOR SKYLAR was no secret first time out, but it was nice to see her running to the whispers in dominant front-running score; good post as she steps up.

NINTH RACE

KHARAFA just missed in the West Point last year after very likely running the best race, and while he has managed only one win since, he continues to race in good form vs. strong competition; has some quality rivals to out-kick in the stretch, but there is going to be plenty of pace in front of them, and he is as good as any if he gets a trip. GET JETS has taken to turf nicely since switched over, and he held his own quite well in open company stake last time despite having some trouble working his way clear in the stretch; two-turn route up here a potential stumbling block, but see no reason why he wouldn’t be okay with it. OFFERING PLAN disappointed a bit behind GET JETS last time, but he came home strongly to kick down, among others, KHARAFA in career-best effort off the layoff; rebound threat.

TENTH RACE

TWISTED TOM has won four of his last five on dirt, with the lone loss coming in the Belmont Stakes, and he just defeated several of these horses while going with an early run to contention in the NY Derby at Finger Lakes; strong stayer has positional speed, and may have an advantage over this track and trip, where stamina is at a premium. MINSKY MOMENT has disappointed a bit so far, but he has some ability, and it is best to forgive his loss over course and distance as a heavy favorite last time where he was way against an inside, speed-favoring track; something to prove still, but too early to just give up on him. CAN YOU DIGGIT trailed that NY Derby field all the way before rallying into 4th late without threat; earned a competitive figure one start prior, and that Derby run may have set him up to take a step forward second off the layoff.

ELEVENTH RACE

LOUISIANA LADY running out of chances, but she is better than she looks after enduring a couple of trips along the way and she is better sprinting; no chance in that last one while stacked five-wide up the backstretch on a day when the rails were freshly down on the turf and the inside was strong. DAB was done in by moving wide over that strong inside track when defeated as the favorite two starts back, and he could only chase in the mud off the claim; looks tough coming back to turf considering his first two starts on this surface. SHADES OF BROWN switched to turf for the first time when last seen at Belmont, and he flashed some big speed to clear that field early and bring them down past mid-stretch before weakening late; figures to come out running once again over slightly shorter trip.