How to play the Pick 4

With three stakes comprising an early Pick 4 at Canterbury Saturday, here is an analysis and suggested ticket for sequence there that begins with race 2.

Race 2, Brooks Fields Stakes

A mile turf race for older horses, this race drew a number of entrants that were placed in the race for the chance that inclement weather might force it to the main track. And that is a possibility with a strong chance of rain forecasted. So stay tuned to weather updates and any key changes at Canterbury on Saturday. If this race stays on the grass, my choice is Hay Dakota (1), who is well drawn along the inside and four-for-nine at Canterbury on the grass. He also looks to get a favorable trip, rallying from behind what should be a lively pace – provided much of the speed remains in the field. As good as he looks on paper, others are not far behind. So in addition to using him, I will also throw Majestic Pride (9) and Patriots Rule (4) into the Pick-4 mix.

Race 3, Minnesota HBPA Distaff

This race also appears best played by going three deep if it remains on the grass. Ms. Bubbette (12) gets slight preference, having won two in a row this summer at Canterbury, and being five-for-seven lifetime on the local lawn. But she’s not so much of a standout that she warrants singling given that she seems to prefer firm to wet ground. Sweet Tapper (5) and One Last Shot (9) are also capable of winning on the grass, and also warrant inclusion in the Pick 4. The former was a stakes winner two starts ago at Canterbury before being beaten by Ms. Bubbette in an allowance, and the latter was a brave allowance winner at Delaware last out when stretched out to two turns.

Race 4 , Mystic Lake Derby

Two horses seem to stand above the rest in this mile race for 3-year-olds on the grass: Giant Payday (9), a last-out allowance winner at Ellis Park, and the speedy Siem Riep (1), who has won two in a row since being moved from turf to dirt. Giant Payday has the edge over the latter due to more seasoning.

Race 5 , Allowance

Here I will single Duke of Luke (8), who has rattled off three straight victories at Canterbury to improve his dirt record to 10 for 21. He has raced against cheaper, but he seems to fit quite nicely against this first-level allowance cast, a group that seems of modest ability.

The Play – A 50-cent Pick 4 in numerical order of 1,4,9 with 5,9,12 with 1,9 with 8 costs $9