ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, SURPRISE TWIST

FIRST RACE

HAZIT brought $430k following :10.1 breeze at OBS March and was turned over to Pletcher who, while just 2-for-9 with his 2yos debuting on dirt at the meet, is generally reliable with firsters; dam was a good sprinter sprinter in her day, winning multiple stakes including a Grade 3 in Southern California. HIGH NORTH a half-brother to Grade 2 sprinter Benner Island, who also races for these connections and was last seen finishing 3rd in the Grade 1 Acorn at Belmont; dam was a graded stakes winner herself, and her first two boths both won at first asking. GOOD MAGIC one of two entered for Chad Brown, who has already sent out a pair of 2yos to impressive debut wins sprinting on dirt at the meet; this one brought $1 million at auction, and may want more distance down the line, while his stablemate ROAD TO MEATH, with whom he has a couple of works in common, lacks much in the way of pedigree but still brought $140k as a yearling. VICTORY LANE an expensive Tiznow colt from a dam who wound up Grade 1-placed at the end of her career, and her first two foals are the stakes winners Donworth and Con Te Partiro.

SECOND RACE

SURPRISE TWIST impressed breaking his maiden in his second start after a difficult wide trip in his debut, and he wound up losing all position right from the start last time when stuck behind a rival who was rating the break; still came with a strong finish into a fast fraction in that last one, and he holds most of the upside in this field. MEMORIES OF PETER an infrequent winner, but he is capable over a distance of ground, and he has run well enough vs. a pair of better fields in his last couple of starts; projects to be forwardly placed once again, but he does not need the lead to be effective. FOCUS GROUP was okay behind a pair of strong winners in first two well-spaced starts, but he really appeared to appreciate getting stretched out when erasing a stretch deficit with ease last time; threat right back for trainer who keeps them going.

THIRD RACE

STRIKE ME DOWN gives away experience in turf route for 2yos, but his trainer is capable with first time starters, and he is from a typically solid Sam-Son family on the dam-side as a half to graded stakes-winner Golden Sabre out of a mare who won multiple graded stakes herself; vulnerable to one of the experienced runners improving here, but it’s not like any of them was particularly impressive first time out. HE TAKES CHARGE may be starting on turf for distance reasons, as he has a huge pedigree for dirt and routing, but thought he finished with some interest after a stumbling beginning in that first one; trainer strong with 2yo maidens second time out in turf routes (past five years, 8-28, 29%, $3.40 ROI). Same stat applies to stablemate NEEPAWA who finished gamely just ahead of HE TAKES CHARGE in that August 5th race after working out an inside trip; moves to far outside post this time. ANOTHER debuted on opening weekend and sat a nice trip for trainer who is live with his first time starters on turf at

the meet, but he was no match for a troubled and apparently pretty talented Untamed Domain; threat right back.

FOURTH RACE

LEX VEGAS missed time following a very nice debut win and it took him awhile to come around again, which he eventually did to win back-toback sprints in the spring with improving figures; returned from a short layoff to press the pace on the outside, which has frequently not been the place to be on the main track, before getting outfinished by THREEFIVEINDIA and a rail-skimming Tale of S’avall last time; can contend at a bit of a price with the right trip. THREEFIVEINDIA improved for Chad as a 3yo to get his shot at the Grade 1 Cigar Mile at the end of the year; can make some excuses for him so far this year, but he has yet to return to that good 2016 form, and he is likely to be the favorite this time. OSTROLENKA has a pleasing running style and fits this race well, though he really had no excuse after a perfect trip in the Morrissey last time; tries again. STICKSSTATELYDUDE a big threat if firing off the layoff, which may not be the plan for horse who likely has route races in his future; appears to have trained well down in Kentucky leading up to this.

FIFTH RACE

Stakes try didn’t work out for CERISE’S PRINCE last time, but he improved quickly once moved to turf, and his win two back is better than it may appear after powering along on a solid pace over a very wet course and then staying gamely to last while clearly tired; has some other pace to deal with here from difficult outside draw, but he has looked good so far, and may not be the worst thing for him if the pace stretched out allowing him to settle in. CLOONTIA another who likes to be part of the pace, but he settled nicely off a runaway leader last time before coming for that rival in the stretch and then gamely keeping the closers at bay; keeps improving for master trainer. Who knows what we’ll get from SYCAMORE LANE off the 783 day layoff, but he was getting good prior to disappearing, and will handle this field if he can still run; any pace that develops helps his cause. RAY’S THE BAR has disappointed overall since arriving stateside, but he has run some good races, including a win over this course last summer, and he is a new gelding for this after getting very headstrong off the layoff.

SIXTH RACE

Not of a fan of FOREVER UNBRIDLED’s light campaigning, but she came into her own last year as a 4yo to win a couple of Grade 1s, and her effort behind SONGBIRD in the Distaff was underrated after a very conservative ride; win off the layoff was accomplished on her own power, which appeared to be by design, so wouldn’t put too much emphasis on the low figure, but she will have to be at her absolute best to defeat SONGBIRD this time. SONGBIRD way the horse to beat with a decided pace advantage in this short Grade 1 field; thought her return in the Phipps was just about perfect while allowing Paid Up Subscriber to challenge and then doing just enough to put her away, but she did not run her best race race at Delaware while looselined from a long way out and working harder than expected to defeat an overmatched field; think we’ll see the good version here. GOING FOR BROKE stretches back out in the right kind of spot after getting in a perfect prep sprinting off the layoff, but she will really have to improve if the top two bring their best; has a win over course and distance, but still think she might be better going a bit shorter.

SEVENTH RACE

Ballerina a Grade 1 sprint with very little pace on paper, so trips will come into play. CARINA MIA had trouble improving as a 3yo after pair of impressive one-turn wins in graded stakes early on, but she spent much of that rest of the year trying Songbird going longer; liked her win when back to sprinting off the trainer change last time, and she is versatile enough to run her race with any kind of trip. PAULASSILVERLINING the one to beat as she goes for fifth win in a row, and third Grade 1 of the year; holds almost no edge on this field based on figures, and she is probably at her absolute best over six furlongs, but she has already managed this distance twice this year, she wants to beat you, and she can be placed anywhere in a race. BY THE MOON talented and versatile in her own right, and she may be more comfortable with this distance than her former stablemate, but think PAULASSILVERLINING is the better horse; ran well in this race last year after a perfect trip, but needs to catch some breaks to come out on top as she looks for first Grade 1 score. CURLIN’S APPROVAL enters with a big figure and some fast works, but she has much to prove at this level and vs. these horses. HIGHWAY STAR a longshots chance, as she continuously outruns her odds while doing nothing but show up and run.

EIGHTH RACE

TAKAFUL turned heads in impressive debut romp that was faster than the other division of maidens on that card by two full seconds, but his bandwagon emptied quickly following trio of flat performances routing; finally cut back to sprint again last time and never gave that field a chance while flashing easy speed en route to top figure win, and he may be fastest early in strong running of the H. Allen Jerkens. PRACTICAL JOKE sat a trip and once again did his best in the Haskell, while once again proving that he just can’t finish over longer distances; looks tough here after rolling over weaker from behind a modest pace to run his one-turn record to 4-for-4 in the Dwyer one start prior. Like TAKAFUL, AMERICAN ANTHEM disappointed over a distance of ground for a top trainer, but he is 2-for-2 since cut back to sprint, including dominant Woody Stephens score where he kept a fast pace in range and easily closed it down; nice post on the outside once again.

NINTH RACE

DIVINING ROD proved that he can go at this level when just missing in the Cigar Mile last year, and he is wheeling back quickly while stepping right back up after returning from a long layoff with facile romp in the mud two weeks ago; appears to be very comfortable around one turn and he can trip out in Forego lacking for much in the way of pace. MIND YOUR BISCUITS was a Grade 1 winner at the end of last year, but he has been even better for this trainer so far in 2017, as he has dominated both the Golden Shaeen and the Belmont Sprint in convincing fashion; will likely have to close down a couple of good horses from behind to win this, but won’t be surprised to see him do it; horse to beat. DREFONG went 4-for-4 as a 3yo with a pair of Grade 1 wins, though it wasn’t always easy to tell just how good he was after having all the best of it along the way, including easy King’s Bishop score here where he was allowed to walk on the lead; got off to a late start this year, and his return was clearly not ideal, but he may be loose once again.

TENTH RACE

SADLER’S JOY appeared to be on his way to victory after taking over the Bowling Green with his typical strong run from off the pace, but he could not hold on late after getting clear in the stretch in disappointing loss; in retrospect, he may have moved too soon in that race, so will give him one more chance over a distance that he is comfortable with. IDAHO started out with a pretty big reputation for top connections in Europe, but he hasn’t quite panned out, and has posted only two wins since impressive debut score while stepping down in class; fits here after facing a very strong field over a wet course in the King George last time, but don’t think he stands out in any way. MONEY MULTIPLIER ran great in this race last year, and may have made things closer with Flintshire if given a more clever ride; started back the right way with Grade 2 win at Monmouth, and he can pull a cozy trip in

this race, as can the hard-hitting and consistent BIGGER PICTURE. ERUPT defeated IDAHO after a perfect trip in last year’s Canadian International, which remains his lone win from his last 11 starts following a 4-for-4 beginning; tough to take as he looks to rebound from non-effort last time.

ELEVENTH RACE

CLOUD COMPUTING still one of the most lightlyraced 3yos in this crop, but he is already a classic winner, and want to give him another chance following disappointing Jim Dandy where he may have gotten too aggressive while attempting to not let ALWAYS DREAMING get away from him on the lead over a strong inside track; has the right post and think he can rebound with the right trip in wide open Travers. GOOD SAMARITAN switched to dirt for the first time in that Jim Dandy, and while he looked good powering through the stretch from last, he had that race handed to him on a silver platter after the other four in the race all got involved on a fast pace; still, he clearly handled the dirt, and he appears to be a very good horse on either surface. TAPWRIT was improving from start to start on the way to the Derby, and that is an easy race to excuse for him, especially when taking his strong Belmont effort into account; distance no issue, and he is handy enough to get the right trip. WEST COAST stepping up and stretching out off back-to-back top figure scores for Baffert; will find this field tougher than the two he just handled, but he may have traveled the 10 furlongs last time while being kept very wide into the track all the way around there, and he still finished in that race.

TWELFTH RACE

LADY ELI settled off a modest pace and came gamely to close down the Grade 1 Diana last time; horse to beat right back in Ballston Spa that Chad Brown appears to have over a barrel. ANTONOE broke through the gate prior to the start of the Diana, as did LADY ELI, and she was not in the most comfortable place while trying to close along the rail in the stretch, where she eventually did have to take up late; impressed in her first two starts stateside, and would appear to be a big threat to turn the tables on her stablemate here. DICKINSON has disappointed in her last two following strong win over LADY ELI at Keeneland; looking to rebound, and best chance may be to try to do it on the front end.

THIRTEENTH RACE

Thought MOHICAN went well in both turf starts as a 2yo, and he did not get the best trip/ride in the world in his only start on grass so far this year, which came vs. much tougher; drops for the first time on this surface. HERECOMESYOURMAN was rank and hard to settle last time which left him contesting the pace from a long way out, and it may have cost him in the stretch; has been his own worst enemy at times, but has run some nice races on turf without getting lucky, and this class drop helps. ADMIRALS COVE put in a bit of run between calls in debut that is not as flat as it looks, and he really had no chance last time in race dominated up front by the talented Cerise’s Prince; drops.