ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, SMILING MASON

FIRST RACE

As we write this Friday morning, there is an 80% chance of rain on both Friday and Saturday (and Sunday for that matter). COOKIES ARE GOOD has never missed the exacta on a wet track. Need we go on? A nice confidence boost last out by the way. TERO has won on this dirt before. Current form is improved and he even has some tactical speed. GIANT’S VOICE has speed but it is turf speed. His last dirt start has fallen off the page so let’s just say that he is better now. If this stays on the weeds then there is some other speed and maybe, just maybe, this guy is actually better with a target.

SECOND RACE

There is no getting around FLYING ROCKET has has never run poorly including twice in the slop. Four of six sibs have won routing. Unless he bounces, it is his race to lose. MAJOR HIT has some speed and might find the front end as there isn’t a ton of zip in here. His last race came back key when 2 of 4 returned to win with Beyers of 56 and 67 (another placed with a 62 figure). Any chance this colt didn’t like a good track last out? CHEATING didn’t do much in his debut but we can forgive anyone’s first start. One of two sibs is a multiple route winner. WILD LIL’ KITTEN has two sibs that are multiple route winners.

THIRD RACE

Is TIGGER TOWN the speed? A tough distance off the layoff which was compounded when he hopped at the start. He has passed a runner before but we would prefer to watch him wire the field on a sloppy Joe track. WILD MONGOLIA got a 71 Beyer only four back. An off track three back and you just know how a horse reacted to that. That try two back was OK while stakes foes last out. WAR ARTIST has tactical speed but we think he will prefer to stalk in this spot. His wet record is a very good 4-1-1-0. At times, he is a huge price including 58-1 last out.

FOURTH RACE

FLASH JAK wants the umbrellas to come out as it will tilt the playing field in her favor. She exits a key race where 2 of 6 returned to win with figs of 77 and 71. Why can’t we see a race like that one only two back when second on a wet track while denied an early breather. SOUTHERN SIS is pure turf. She is bred to love it. If she can get a 72 turf Beyer as a 2YO then what could she do as a 3YO? She seems capable of firing fresh as she did win her debut. RASHETTE was facing some toughies before the layoff. A nice return try two back and then what... a bounce or a good track that tripped her up? She has won on an off track before.

FIFTH RACE

MATTHEWS MYSTERY might be the speed of the... there is no other speed. From the 11 hole, he just cleared off in a race with other front runners and that is while cutting back a half furlong. It wasn’t that long ago that he was wiring back to back fields on this dirt. Toss that try three back when he stumbled at the start. Would we have preferred for this to be at six furlongs instead of 5 1/2? Yep. A good price soothes our wallet. Wire please. GONE DEEP

has speed but we think he stalks in this spot as main speed foe looks quicker and he has passed a runner before. New barn is noted. LEMON ROYAL cuts back a full furlong and that will force an off the pace try. Third time with new barn can’t hurt. Penchant for less?

SIXTH RACE

JAIDEN’S BEST is your main track only entrant that just loves the wet. A pace profile is impossible if this comes off as there is no way to figure who stays and goes. Seven panels two back was probably too short. DEVISE has tried nothing but the grass and we always like to see that. Turf breeding is outstanding as that 361 Tommy can attest to. Any horse that can run a Beyer top versus first time winners is talented. Now this just needs to stay on. SILVER BEACH is another pure turf runner. This colt tried a turf route in his debut and nothing is tougher. New barn has a string of well spaced works. BENEFICIARY is the bomb.

SEVENTH RACE

QUENANE just ran well for his new barn. A soft pace certainly helped. Today’s pace looks a like his most recent. This gelding got a taste for winning four back and just liked it. Was seven furlongs a tad short two back? LEVERKUSEN has a long string of races without a break so it is nice to see new barn give this gelding a vacation. Plus, they are 42% off the claim. That one turn mile only two back tells us everything we need to see as far as local ability. GUN CARRIAGE hasn’t done much of late but does go third off the layoff. He found himself inside down the stretch last out and maybe he didn’t like it there. Here comes a nice price to entice.

EIGHTH RACE

NO DENIAL is pure turf. We love his debut where he was slammed at the start but recovered to beat half the field home. His follow up try was a nice win. His third start was actually a Beyer top but also versus much tougher. He spit the bit last out but that race was too bad to be believed. COMMAND PETER has some speed and an inside post to best use it. Bred to like the wet if this comes off. WHOOP TI DO is just a solid runner. Maybe he is just better around two turns. Wet track might be a plus.

NINTH RACE

SMILING MASON, today’s best bet, is by a 1 for 8 debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). His dam went 39-12-3-6 for 207K (3 for 13 on a wet track). Of 9 sibs to race, 7 won of which 5 of those beat winners. Two siblings finished second when making their 2YO debuts. Works are well spaced at the old Calder. This barn is 3 for 9 with debut maiden claimers. The rail draw is a small knock. WINKING AT THEDUDE is by a 12% debut sire. His dam went 61-13-1-0-6 for 101K (3 for 18 on a wet track). This is her first foal. Works are well spaced. NEW CHAMPION is by a 6% debut sire. His dam went 16-3-4-5 for 141K. Of 3 sibs to race, 2 won with one of those having beat winners (3 for 9: 56K). This barn is 3 for 7 with debut maiden claimers. RED CARATS is by a 15% debut sire. His dam went 8-2-0-1 for 35K and this is her first foal. MR. MORNINGSTAR is by a 2 for 9 debut sire. His dam went 19-3-0-3 for 68K and this is her first foal. LITTLE PLUMBER is by a 22% debut sire. His dam went 9-1-0-2 for 33K and this is her first foal.

TENTH RACE

WARRANTED did not do much before the layoff but was facing slightly tougher. A nice even effort in his return and that bodes well for today’s added half furlong. He exits a key race where 2 of 3 returned to win with figs of 56 and 67 (another returned to finish 2nd with a 62 Beyer). Slight class drop hints at the money run. ASK THE HEIR is by a 16% debut sire. His dam went 63-27-15-14 for 780K. Lone sib is 12-0-1-3 for 9K. This gelding might get lost on the tote. BRAVE REQUEST has some speed. He is just better of late. Kentucky bred cuts back a half furlong.

ELEVENTH RACE

ARTY’SBOURBONGIRL lost her iron last out and you can’t show speed when that happens. A Beyer top only three back. Where is the other speed in this race? Batista leaves for the rail runner but that’s OK as Figueroa rode this mare six and seven back which resulted in some real nice tries. An early breather would go a long way in this minor stakes race. SWEET TOOTH HAVEN got pace help last out and won liked she was supposed to. Her upside is best. If needed, she does have tactical speed. Presses our top pick? Mmmmaybe. LIRICA has won five times on this dirt. Current form is solid but race flow not so much.

TWELFTH RACE

LADY ALONDRA is the bet but only if this comes off. She did get some play in her debut when sent off at 4-1. This barn is 23% second out. The equipment change and added distance is a nice combo. MOXIE should like the grass and that was an OK try only two back. Second time this turf can’t hurt nor third off the layoff. MANUSCRIPT is the if this stays on the turf play. Her turf breeding is excellent. A better post today while debut speaks for itself.