ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, DANZING CANDY FIRST RACE

DREAM POLICE can rebound after he misfired in a similar N3L claiming route last out. The gelding found himself in an uncomfortable spot, hardheld and not relaxed while inside and behind a slow pace. He appeared unhappy, gave little late, and finished a distant fourth. It was a step back from his sharp runner-up finish vs. unrestricted $16k claiming company two back. DREAM POLICE moves inside to outside, and this time figures for a pressing trip while racing in the clear. Minor upset? QUE CHISTOSO was perhaps in too tough in a Cal-bred N1X last out; he pressed and tired to fourth. He drops in class to N3L claiming, and figures as a contender if he reproduces his dirt races from early this year. REAL BIG DEAL finished more than five lengths in front of the top choice last out, while benefitting from a comfortable trip pressing a slow pace. The fractions are likely to be quicker this spot. Nonetheless, logical contender.

SECOND RACE

ANITA G. wheels back in 10 days and shortens to a sprint after she was compromised by a pace battle and virtually eased in a route. Though she finished second in a route two starts back, sprinting might be her best trip. First off the claim by Steve Miyadi, shorter distance, pressing trip likely, tab for a rebound. MAMA’S SUGAR opened up by three in the middle of the stretch last out, then weakened to second. That was her first start since last fall, she shortens to five and one-half furlongs, and must use her speed from the inside post. Stretch-runner EMPRESS DEELITES drops to the bottom class level ($16k claiming N2L) for the first time. She needs a pace collapse to flatter her closing rally. She just might get it. MAGICAL LUCY has been showing speed and fading in route races. Like the top choice, MAGICAL LUCY might prefer this shorter trip.

THIRD RACE

This is the first try in a turf sprint for G Q COVERGIRL who proved last out she handles grass, and is already proven in sprints. Last out, she set a fast route pace, and tired. Her previous races were main-track sprints including three straight wins. Shortening up, staying on grass, she will be forwardly placed and the choice to win with a front-running/pace-pressing trip. MISS LOUJEAN runs her best races on this course including a runner-up finish by a nose in a similar N1X turf sprint last out. She has speed, but can rally from off, and figures as a contender based on her recent runner-up finish. MERRILY MERRILY will roll late. She moves up in class to open company after a turf-sprint win against Cal-breds. The knock is the filly she beat (runner-up Winemenow) returned Wednesday to finish a lackluster third against Cal-breds. LATE ‘N LEFT returns from a six-month layoff, first try on turf. A 5-for-13 pro, she will be among the leaders. SHEZA CHATTYKAT also is first-time turf. Also-eligible ANGEL ALLIE looked good winning her debut.

FOURTH RACE

First-time starter EXUBERANCE has trained like a 2yo filly that will fire first out. A full sister to graded sprint winner Toews on Ice, EXUBERANCE posted a sharp series of works for trainer Ian Kruljac including a five-furlong gate work Aug. 13 (viewed on XBTV.com) in which she outworked two rivals. Should fire first out. TRUE ROYALTY finished a solid second in her debut; her bullet work early this week suggests she came out of the race in top shape and might move forward with a race under her belt. TRUE ROYALTY is the first filly to run back out of the July 30 race won by Del Mar Debutante-bound Poetic. SAINT TROPEZ is a fast-working first-time starter sired by 18-percent debut sire Midshipman; FANTASTIC GIRL had a pair of “B-” workouts into her scheduled debut on Aug. 12. She scratched, but returned with two sharp workouts thereafter.

The pick six starts with a maiden-50 sprint for Calbred 2yos. Second-time starter LUCKY ROMANO is likely to improve. He broke slowly and finished sixth in his debut, but came back with a sharp half-mile gate work Aug. 18 while adding blinkers. Moveup expected by the second-start maiden. TIME FOR CIOPPINO drops in for a tag, following a good fourth in a special-weight for Cal-breds that turned out productive. The one-two finishers returned to finish two-one in a stakes; the seventh-place finisher returned to finish second; and the eighth-place finisher returned to finish second and then win. The point is, TIME FOR CIOPPINO faced a good field, and ran well. His 50 Beyer puts him in the thick of it vs. maiden-claiming company. HANDSOME SWEDE flashed speed and tired in his debut. He drops in class for his second start; trainer Mike Machowsky is having a big summer with 2yos (five winners). First-time starters ROYAL BAR and LUKE’S ON FIRE debut for outfits that win with first-time starters.

SIXTH RACE

How good is OREGON? The improving turf horse followed his sharp maiden victory with another impressive win in a N1X. Good works since, closing style that suits the course profile, one more class hike to N2X within reach. NEWSMAN finished second in back-to-back races at this level, and will be one of the favorites. No knocks. CIMPL MAN was favored last out under similar conditions, but misfired without an apparent alibi. Perhaps he deserves another chance? Rafael Bejarano stays aboard. CONQUEST TYPHOON might be ranked too low by this handicapper. Runner-up last out in a mile and three-eighths N2X, he shortens to his preferred distance. He is 4-for-7 at one mile. Deep race, lots of contenders.

SEVENTH RACE

The lightly raced GATO DEL ORO, highly rated N1X winner last out, can post an upset over graded winners KLIMT, BATTLE OF MIDWAY and GORMLEY. The win last out by GATO DEL ORO was his first try around two turns, and first try against winners. He turned back a late challenge from sharp older horse Giant Expectations to win well. The runner-up was ore than eight lengths clear of third. Sharp works since; lightly raced GATO DEL ORO can upset his seasoned, stakes-established rivals in this mile stakes. KLIMT ran super in his comeback, runner-up in a G2 at Los Alamitos won by Travers-bound West Coast. KLIMT won both starts at Del Mar last summer (G1 Futurity, G2 Best Pal). BATTLE OF MIDWAY, third in the Kentucky Derby, broke slowly, rushed and tired in the G1 Haskell. Blinkers on for his local comeback. GORMLEY, Santa Anita Derby winner and unplaced in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont, also adds blinkers. This is his first start since the Belmont. He runs well fresh, and won a maiden race here last summer.

EIGHTH RACE

A creditable runner-up finish by POPYHOWUSPELCUPCAK in his California debut stamps the lightly raced gelding the one to beat returning at the same class level/turf route. It’s been a good run for trainer Bill Morey and jockey Rafael Bejarano. Over the past year, nine starters produced five wins, and three seconds. Also-eligible WALDORF rallied wide and scored a decisive maiden-62.5k win three weeks ago. Tough post, but if he does scratch in, he will drop out early and rally wide late. KONA DREAMS faltered as the favorite last out. He will be forwardly placed, in front of the top pair, but not sure how far he really wants to run. BEAUMARCHAIS sped off to a five-length lead and paid the price. He switches riders to top apprentice Evin Roman.

NINTH RACE

DANZING CANDY is the most probable winner on the card. The speedster scored back-to-back graded wins in fast time including a courageous win last out in a G2 at this seven-furlong distance. He dueled on a blazing pace, shook off his rival, and turned back a challenge from Ransom the Moon, who came back to win G1. DANZING CANDY worked well for his first start in nearly two months; trainer Bob Baffert has won this race seven times. GIANT EXPECTATIONS ran well last out, runner-up to Shared Belief selection Gato Del Oro (race 7) while finishing more than eight lengths clear of third. The class hike from N1X to G2 is a challenge, but GIANT EXPECTATIONS is sharp and might benefit by the cutback from one mile to seven furlongs. SILENT BIRD returns from a five-month layoff with a solid workout pattern for a stable having a big summer. Trainer Mark Glatt 12-for-48 this summer (through Wednesday), second in the standings. MR. HINX is undefeated in sprints (5-for-5) including a fast stakes win last out vs. Cal-bred 3yos.

TENTH RACE

The turf route for California-bred maidens is a tough way to end the card. BOLD PAPA was probably second-best last out; he finished fourth while in severe trouble into and through the lane. This is his third start back following a long layoff, should be his best race. BOTTLE SERVICE, in the money six of seven on turf, finished in front of the top choice last out. LOVELY ANZI, stablemate of the top choice, makes his first start since changing trainers.