ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, SUBZERO PLUS

FIRST RACE

The win machine EMINENT FORCE seems capable of cruising on the lead in this 12-furlong turf marathon, and might never look back under regular rider Campbell. He was recently scooped up for $62.5K by trainer Catherine Day Phillips, who’s 0 for 1 first-time off the claim during the past five years. The turf millionaire KAIGUN is obviously the class of the field, and was a wide ninth last time out in a key optional claimer at Saratoga. He has seen better days, but should be a factor as an underlay. JOHNNY BEAR, the 2012 yearling sale topper, was in solid form prior to a 12-length loss in a one-mile optional claimer July 22, and could handle the rest.

SECOND RACE

SUBZERO PLUS displayed effective speed when third two back in an N1X turf route. Throw out her last race in the Passing Mood Stakes, which was taken off the turf at the last minute, and give her a chance to make all the running in this NW2 OS allowance/$40K sprint. PRIZED BOURBON filled out the exacta for the seventh time most recently after a tardy start in a similar spot. ROYAL KATY saved ground en route to finishing third behind the latter Aug. 6, which came on the heels of a victory over $25K maidens. Put ROXY RED in the super.

THIRD RACE

MELMICH, the leading older male runner on the grounds, sticks out in this event, which he won last year in a workmanlike manner. The deep closer seems in better form this year and has a little speed to chase here, even if EMINENT FORCE opts for the Halton. The latter is debuting off a rare claim by Phillips, after winning three in a row on the grass. FIELD OF COURAGE closed belatedly for fourth behind the mighty Pink Lloyd in a recent OS stakes sprint. A middle distance was once a suitable trip for the 5yo.

FOURTH RACE

SPRING TEMPEST pressed soft fractions en route to a game score over Gale Force in a nine-furlong N1X a month ago. She won the rich Muskoka Stakes on this night last year, and has worked encouragingly leading up to this engagement. SPARKLES’ GIRL dropped a neck decision after attending slow splits in a recent second-level optional claimer. Like the top choice, the 4yo won a stakes at 2. MISS SEA probably prefers the grass, but she’s no slouch on synthetics when she’s on her game, which could be the case here in her third race off the bench. Use TRINI BREWNETTE underneath in the exotics.

FIFTH RACE

LINE OF VISION took the long way home while closing from fifth to win her debut over this six and a half-furlong distance going away. The half-sister to stakes winner Pyrite Mountain has been saddled with the outside post in this bulky field, but she has lots of speed to chase and could be along in time. SUMMER SUNDAY should be favored off her unblemished record, which included a stakes triumph over Rosemere, who came back to run second in a maiden special on the grass. She’s drawn inside the other speed, however, and could get softened up in a frontend battle. HATCH GATE is adding Lasix off a first-out score going three-quarters, from which the runnerup exited to disappoint. DIRTY GIRL is probably better than her last dull effort in the Nandi Stakes would indicate.

SIXTH RACE

AHEADBYACENTURY missed the break before rallying wide for third on a track that aided frontrunners and stalkers when debuting in the Clarendon Stakes. The son of Midnight Lute should welcome the one-furlong stretchout to six and a half furlongs in this $200K stakes, which his trainer won last year with Lokinforpursemonee. ESKIMINZIN was bumped at the break before making up ground on the outside from fourth to finish second to the favorite in the Aug. 5 Clarendon. STORMFUHR graduated at first asking in a good six-furlong clocking a month ago. He could be an effective stalker with Ryan back in the saddle.

SEVENTH RACE

PINK LLOYD earned an average Beyer of 102 in his remarkable five-race win streak in stakes company at the meet. The powerful chestnut wouldn’t have to bring his “A” game to get the job done in this restricted contest, in which he drew ideally on the outside under Da Silva. JACKS ESCARPMENT is winless in six starts since capturing this event last year. His recent form is subpar, but he’s done his optimum running when forwardly placed, which could be the case here with blinkers on and Contreras aboard. RIVER MAID, the 2016 Canadian champion female sprinter, closed for second in this race last year. She’s been freshened since finishing a wide fifth among three next-out winners in the G3 Hendrie Stakes June 4.

EIGHTH RACE

COBRA SOPHIE got her number taken down in a controversial disqualification in a seven-furlong tilt for $25K maidens Aug. 4. This $40K event at the same distance came up light, and she could take the cake on a repeat of that last race. HEART RUSH is dropping off a flat fourth a key maiden special on the turf to try the Tapeta, on which she ran second in a seven-furlong sprint May 12. Husbands takes over for his main man Casse on the 4yo, who’s donning blinkers. TYPICALLY is stepping up off a lapped-on fourth and a claim by a high-percentage trainer, who’s 2 for 14 (14%) first-time off the halter switch going back five years ($1.72 ROI).