ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, HARASAN

FIRST RACE

LITTLE JOHN W got a contested pace in his most recent but just couldn’t quite get up as the favorite. Today’s pace is solid and this gelding figures a bit more fit second off the layoff. The jock switch to Zayas is a plus as he is 50% when riding for this barn. BIRD HUMOR is feeling great. He has tactical speed to help his trip. It took a few races for this guy to find his turf form but found it he has AND he is bred to like the weeds. REGAL KITTEN cuts back a full furlong and maybe that helps? Not much pace last out yet he only lost by 2 lengths. Today’s pace is just better and this guy has always done his best on this sod.

SECOND RACE

Did AUSABLE just learn to pass runners in his most recent? Or is he just feeling that good? His turf breeding is only OK yet he just won on the green at almost 7-1. The Kassen barn is 21% with repeating winners. Added distance could test this guy’s ability to sit and pounce but there is other speed in here. If anywhere near 10-1 morning line then this guy is the value. INASWAGGER does like this distance and now goes third off the layoff. One of many with some speed. You can’t knock a runner that has won 10 times in only 28 starts. MAL GUAPO has the best last race Beyer. Big figs in two of his last three starts. When Zayas last rode this gelding they won by 12 plus lengths and it was only three back. Before betting those rent monies, are you sure he likes seven panels?

THIRD RACE

If this comes off the grass, then first time starter MY NIECE LUANNE is the play. Her sire is 15% with debut 2YO runners. Her dam went 25-3-5-3 for 50K and this is her first foal. This barn is 29% with debut runners and 25% with debut maiden claimers. HONEY HEARTS is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam went 9-0-2-2 for 14K on the green and this is her first foal. This filly ran great in her debut and it came on an off track. We like this filly if this comes off or stays on the grass. TEQUILA N TACOS just ran OK on this lawn. She gets in light and puts the blinkers ON so a front end try is more likely than not. ITS ABOUT ME is by a 6% debut sire and a 19% debut turf sire. Her dam went 24-2-2-3 for 36K (26K on the grass). This is dam’s first foal. DUTCHES OF SPARKLE is by a new turf sire. Her dam went 2-1-1-0 on the green for 9K. Both sibs failed to win on the sod. LITTLE VICTORIA is by a 0 for 30 debut sire and a 1 for 25 debut turf sire. Her dam was un-raced and this is her first foal. LEAVE IT TO BEBE is by a 11% debut sire and a 1 for 11 debut turf sire. Her dam went 4-0-0-0 with 3 of those on the grass. This is dam’s first foal. FUN AND GAMES is by a 0 for 2 debut turf sire. Her dam went 7-0-0-2 on the green for 5K and this is her first foal.

FOURTH RACE

NIKKI BELLA went favored in her debut and won nicely. She got a 66 Beyer and that was as a 2YO. What if she is more mature now? Works are well spaced and we think connections might have a good one here. Notice that they find a spot where this filly can’t be claimed even though she only cost 4K. WORTH AVENUE has only run poorly once and that came with some time off before and after (3 back). She puts three races together now so problems are behind her. She is feeling good and seems capable on an off track if the umbrellas come out. FERGIELICIOUS lures Zayas and drops in class. A more manageable pace today.

FIFTH RACE

MY LIFE FOR YOU is good whether this stays on the turf or comes off. Her sire gets 7% debut turf winners. Her dam never tried the green. One of three sibs won on the grass (26-6-5-5 for 178K). The time off is a bit scary but works are perfect. Her upside is great and we like it that Zayas gets a leg up (21% with this barn). RIGHTEOUS RUTH has tried nothing but the grass in her short career and that is a plus. She is improving by the minute. Race flows is fine as long as the 3, 5, and 6 stay in. PAT M’S IMAGE ran OK off the layoff but maybe she needed that race to some extent? It was still a Beyer top. This mare is just a hard trier and she gets some pace to chase today.

SIXTH RACE

STUDY THE STARS popped and stopped in her debut but that was on the turf something she isn’t bred to like. The Thomas barn is 21% turf to dirt. There isn’t that much pace in here but of course we don’t know what the first time starters are going to do. If near 10-1 morning line, then this pace play is the value bet. LUCKY STIFF ran well in her debut and got bet at 2.8-1. Both sibs beat winners. Added two furlongs help, right? This barn is 0 for 32 with 2YO’s. DESPOENA is by a 2 for 11 debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. Of 8 sibs to race, 6 won and 5 beat winners. Trainer stats are very good even if this is a tough debut distance. CAITLIN’SATTHEBAR is by a 0 for 30 debut sire. Her dam was un-raced. One of two sibs won. LEGGENDA is by a 11% debut sire. Her dam went 22-2-6-8 for 215K. All 3 sibs won and 2 beat winners including a debut 2YO winner. DON’T CHARGE IT is by a 18% debut sire. Her dam went 3-0-1-0 for 4K and this is her first foal.

SEVENTH RACE

There just isn’t much pace in this race and maybe that helps LASSELL the most. He has tactical speed and that alone might put him on the engine. The good news is that he doesn’t have to have the front end to run well. He missed a Beyer top by only two points three back. Class drop can’t hurt. ABTAAL does have some back class. New barn has this horse feeling good. A wet track might tilt the playing field in his favor. Lone knock is that he has only tried 8 furlongs twice. TELLING TONY is a little better of late. Lone distance try was a W. New barn is 19% off the claim and they lure Zayas.

EIGHTH RACE

HARASAN ran well in his debut and even got some play. He goes from a 3% barn to a 12% one. Two of three sibs beat winners. We love the fact that this guy has worked three times since said debut. Most runners improve in their second start and this colt gets blinkers to help sharpen his speed. HOPPIN’ MAD did get a 50 Beyer in his debut and that was with him tiring late and losing to a repeat winner. That was also at a tough 7 furlongs. Then he tried the grass and did next to nothing. Two of three sibs beat winners. Now he gets much easier and at what might be a really good price. BARROOMBOUNCER got a 65 Beyer in his debut. He was stuck on the rail in his second start and on a sloppy Joe track. Class drop is big but is it too big? Trainer stats are very good across the board. CAPTAIN CORBIN is by a 7% debut sire. His dam went 2-0-1-0 for $1,815 and this is her first foal.

NINTH RACE

This race is wide open. SHACKLEFORDS STORM figures a good trip today. He seems to like his new barn or is a new turf horse. Did he learn to pass runners in his most recent? Plenty of pace to do the same today. As always, he figures a good to great price. STONE HEART got a little break and maybe that will help. He is proven on this sod and likes to pass runners which fits with today’s solid race flow. CITY ROC showed speed last out when winning first time turf and at a big price. He is actually bred to like the green. Although he just won gate to wire we think others are quicker and he may have to settle for a stalking trip. BLINDING is by a 11% debut turf sire. His dam never tried the green. Lone turf sib is 4-0-0-0.

TENTH RACE

NICK THE CARDSHARK might be the speed of the speed. Form cycle hints at better and he goes for a high percentage barn. He gets more time between starts than his previous race. DANGEROUS BEND cuts back a half furlong to a distance that he has never tried. That’s just weird as this is only six furlongs. His return try was sharp and maybe he will be better as a 4YO. BLIND RUCKUS is feeling good even if facing maidens. Sometimes a horse likes this gets a taste for winning and likes it. A stalking trip off the speeds works for us.

ELEVENTH RACE

SHES GOT THE LUCK just ran better and it was her first on the grass. That makes perfect sense as she is bred to like the green (unlike many of these). Second time on the grass is a plus as is two turns. BRIDGE OF SIGHS gets first Lasix and does have turf experience. We though her debut at Tampa was better than it looks as she was stuck in the 10 hole. The fact that Zayas takes the call says volumes. ASHLEY’S ROSE is better of late and it came with the surface switch. Last chance for a good price?