ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, SINGING BULLET

FIRST RACE

GUICK was an easy winner when dropped back down in class to break his maiden at Belmont, and he had no chance trying that tougher race last time with Phi Beta Express making a fast pace en route to posting a strong final figure (93 Beyer); drops back down for trainer having a strong meet. DRIVEN BY THUNDER turf-to-dirt and turning back for Pletcher after failing to improve much on the grass; 82 Beyer earned back in April would make him tough, but that was at Gulfstream, and he didn’t run particularly well in his last dirt start. REEDINI dropped for the first time most recently and chased to no avail in a race that came back fast for the level (87 Beyer for the winner); tries again. LOOKIN AT BLESSING and HONOR THY FATHER both getting significant class relief for the first time on dirt; neither would be a surprise.

SECOND RACE

Much guess work to be done in maiden turf route for 2yos without much to go on as far as experience. TELECOMMUNICATION has a tough post to overcome, but he also has turf on both sides of his pedigree, and his trainer is strong with juveniles debuting long on turf (past five years, 2yo first time starter, turf route: 8 for 23, 35%, $4.20 ROI). SAY THE WORD a Sam-Som homebred debuting for Motion, who sent out a stablemate of this one to finish a good 3rd here last weekend; Motion solid debuting 2yos on turf. MARAUD a half to Grade 2 American Turf winner Arklow; tough post on the outside, however. OROSCOPO has a better post on the inside, and he is by Orb, who is off to a good start as a sire of turf runners; dam did all of her winning on dirt, but dhe ran fine in her lone turf try, and her best foal to date is a two-time turf winner.

THIRD RACE

FROSTY GAL isn’t a turf horse, and she has landed in a spot here where she needs to run well after trying tougher races on dirt since returning as a 3yo; finished behind BREE’S GOT HEART up here in the slop last summer after a miserable trip. BREE’S GOT HEART has only sprinted on dirt twice since posting that maiden win up here as a 2yo, and both of those races were vs. open company, including a run behind the talented Rose Tree back in May; turf-to-dirt and turning back. BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE earned figures two-and-three starts back that would make her very tough in this spot,

including a runnerup finish to her fast stablemate Cozzy Spring two starts back; nice spot catching several moving up in class. SHALAKO cutting in half off the claim for Linda Rice (past year, first off the claim, turf: 7 for 18, 39%, $4.10 ROI), and he really had no chance last time in fast race dominated up front by Glorious Empire last time; was on a good run up here last summer while keeping four-race win streak going with a pair of victories, and he has been in a little tough so far this year. DANCETRACK taking a big class drop for his second start of the year after landing in tough race off the layoff with a runoff early leader; hard on this field if he can still run. CAPTAIN MOSS has speed on the class drop, and he also has the back races to make himself very dangerous in this kind of race; one concern is that he seems to be at his best at Belmont.

FIFTH RACE

LUNAIRE wasn’t winning the Grade 3 Kent, but he got outrun in that spot after taking a bump at the break, and actually made a run to catch up around the turn before flattening out readily in the stretch; half to the very good turf horse Sadler’s Joy has improved noticeably on grass, and liked his effort two starts back when closing strongly to just miss 2nd/3rd behind the undefeated Bricks and Mortar. J. S. CHOICE third off the layoff now after pair of solid runs on the way back as a 3yo; he took a shot at Bricks and Mortar in that first one back before eventually fading late, and that was a tough spot last time with Black Tide racing away to a long early lead. BROCKTON GEORGE had no shot making his 3yo debut in the Indiana Derby, but like him switching back to turf for second start, as he was very impressive breaking his madien last year after a confident ride and a wide trip; tough post. Perfect trip or not, FUNTASTIC upped his game significantly on turf earlier in the meet; threat right back, but at a shorter price this time.

SIXTH RACE

BOURBON RESOLUTION made a promising debut while hanging in through the stretch with Hollywood Star, who returned to finish 2nd in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special, and he was way agaisnt a strong inside track while in a threewide trip on Jim Dandy Day; can do better with a fair trip. SLOT was in against an experienced stablemate when 3rd in his debut, and he also had trouble on the turn of that race, before just being allowed to finish up on his own in the late stages; prefer his experience over this distance. LIONITE finished ahead of BOURBON RESOLUTION in that 7/29 heat, but he also rode the gold rail behind the winner all the way; Asmussen does improve them through racing, however: past five year, 2yo maiden, second start, dirt sprint, Saratoga: 9 for 21, 43%, $4.08 ROI).

SEVENTH RACE

SINGING BULLET a 3yo facing older, but a talented one, and like his efforst sprinting despite what his pedigree indicates; lost all chance in the Amsterdam (also over that inside speed-favoring track on Jim Dandy Day) when drifting into the gap from the rail post at the start, now moves outside. GIFT BOX a talented runner just starting back for Chad Brown, and doing so over a distance that may be short of his best, by quite a bit; we’ll see. ALEX THE TERROR has been back in form since returning from a short layoff in April, and he is already a winner up here during the meet; Sciacca has been very good off the claim over the past two years with dirt horses: 6 for 30, 20%, $5.58 ROI.

EIGHTH RACE

THAIS was impressive winning that minor stakes in France prior to shipping over, as she was forced to go with a rival making a shapr run to the lead in the straight, and did it readily before strongly closing her down late; Chad strong first time with foreign imports on turf, especially at Saratoga (5 for last 10, $3.95 ROI). BROWSE the horse to beat exiting tough beat in similar race last time where she did all the hard work up front, and was only gunned down on the wire by a closer; has improved on turf, but has been unlucky both times. CREATE A DREAM just starting back for Chad, and may need a race to get back to her best, but she holds the upside as a new 3yo, and she was impressive winning that Chelsea Flower last fall at Belmont.

NINTH RACE

MR HAVERCAMP stepping way up in class here, but hard not to be impressed with his first two runs up in Canada, especially that turf debut where he just aired with complete authority; won’t be easy for him, but he may be a price this time as he faces tougher. BRICKS AND MORTAR undefeated on the way on, and he has been impressive winning backto-back stakes for leading trainer, including grade 2 Hall of Fame when he rolled over a couple of nice horses in the stretch; tough to beat right back. ROCKETRY also stepping up in class for tbhis, bit doing so at the right time following top figure win where he managed to get himself on top of the pace early enough to avoid being compromised; can’t give away too much early position if he is to Union Avenue Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 (518) 584-6200 Main track: One and one-eighths mile, oval. Mellon turf course: One mile, 98 feet. Inner turf course: Seven Furlongs, 304 feet. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,144 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 16% ■ Daily Double, Quinella, and Exacta wagering: 18.5% ■ Trifecta, Pick Three, Pick 4 and Superfecta wagering: 24% ■ Pick 5 wagering: 15% ■ Pick 6 wagering: 24% (15% on non-carryover days) designates graduate of Keeneland Sale out-kick BRICKS AND MORTAR.

TENTH RACE

SEPARATIONOFPOWERS did catch a strong rail earlier in the meet, but almost impossible not to be impressed with the way she rambled all over that field at first asking; faces only four others in Grade 1 Spinaway, and even though she gives away the experience to her main rival PURE SILVER, she may just be blasting off from the rail. PURE SILVER three-for-three with improving figures on the way in, and already a graded stakes winner for barn that excels with 2yos; horse to beat. MAYA MALIBU will have to really improve to go with the top two, but she did some good things while rating wide in her debut and then easily defeating that field; one to watch down the line.

ELEVENTH RACE

Tough to go against GUN RUNNER as he looks for fouth Grade 1 in Woodward that came up with a short field; never been better than he is right now after dominating both the Stephen Foster and the Whitney upon his return from Dubai. NEOLITHIC got in a nice prep for this while closing down the speed sprinting over the track; no match for GUN RUNNER in Dubai, but he can get the right trip in this race if his stablemate RALLY