ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, ST PATRICK’S DAY

FIRST RACE

CAL CAL LI GOWCHIS can win this $16k claiming N2L sprint if he reproduces his runaway maidenclaiming win two starts back. He was only prepping last out in a Cal-bred allowance turf sprint. Back to dirt, the speed of the field, he can be long gone if able to put away HAVE SOME PRIDE. The latter finished second last out, more than six lengths clear of third. He will be forwardly placed, and he has something the top choice lacks. That is, a good race over the track. Comeback gelding GONE WITH IT shortens in distance for his return. He should put in an honest run late. AWESOME IMAGE fits off his runner-up finish last out, and/or his maiden win two back.

SECOND RACE

First-time starter RAG TOP has shown plenty ability in morning workouts; the 2-year-old Union Rags filly can fire first time out. Tough to win going two turns in a career debut, but trainer Bob Baffert has won 4 of 20 route races with debut 2yos the past five years. MAJESTIC AUTHORITY has an experience edge over the top choice. She ran well in her debut, a fourthplace finish at five furlongs. She was rolling late, as if the extra distance of this mile race will be to her benefit. GIA LULA has a pair of third-place finishes this summer including a mile turf race last out.

THIRD RACE

SPIN ME A KISS stretched out and scored a sharp Cal-bred allowance win last out, in her first try around two turns. She set a slow early pace, finished strongly late and should get a similar trip while moving up in class to face open N1X 3yo company. TONAHUTU is an interesting shipper from Europe, making her U.S. debut in a race that is begging to be won by a new shooter. Other than the top choice, this field looks somewhat modest. GOSEECAL tries a rider switch, third start back from a layoff. Upset candidate from off the pace.

FOURTH RACE

GIGANTIS and MORGAN S. are the principals in this N1X sprint for California-breds. The call is the comeback gelding on the rail. GIGANTIS won three straight this spring at Santa Anita by utilizing his weapon. That is, early speed. Freshened three months, working fast, proven fresh, the speed of the field, come catch him. However, MORGAN S. earned a big number (92 Beyer) in his debut victory two weeks ago. He worked an easy halfmile since then, and has enough speed to keep the top choice in his sights. MORGAN S. is likely to start favored. PRIVATE MARINI, a low-level claiming sprinter in spring, has gone up the ladder in recent weeks and enters off a smashing six-length win against $12.5k claiming company at Santa Rosa. He might be this good.

FIFTH RACE

HOLY GHOST ran better than the line looks in his fourth-place debut; the 2yo is the call to win second time out. He was not quick from the rail in his debut, lacked speed, made an eye-catching middle move through the turn, and then went evenly to the wire. It was a highly rated race; winner Zatter is expected to be a contender Monday in the G1 Del Mar Futurity and runner-up St Patrick’s Day is favored to win race 8. First-time starter SOLOMINI might want farther than six and a half furlongs, but he will be finishing. IT’S A NEW YEAR debuts with fast works, while BAHAMIAN was a mild disappointment in his fourth-place debut. He might improve second time out.

The pick six begins with a competitive allowance turf route. KLONDIKE CREEK finished in the money five times at this N1X level including a solid third last out over this course. Blinkers off, he is the call to rally from off the pace. SPANISH HOMBRE was claimed for $32k off his second good turf effort at this meet. Sharp gelding is a threat from the back. BRIMSTONED finished third last out in a highly rated allowance on dirt. He handles any surface.

SEVENTH RACE

SPECTATOR seeks her third straight as likely favorite in the G1 Debutante, following an impressive debut and a runaway win in the G2 Sorrento. She produced improved speed second out; she pressed/set a fast pace (blazing half-mile in 45.05 seconds) and ran away by more than five. The versatile filly showed in her off-the-pace debut she can rally. The sharp filly enters with an experience edge over her main rival. That is JUST A SMIDGE, whose debut victory was validated when runnerup Tyfosha returned with another highly rated runner-up finish. ‘SMIDGE trained super over this racetrack all summer, and might be this good. This G1 for juvenile fillies was won the last two years by second-time starters (Union Strike, Songbird); also three years ago by a second-time starter (Wee Miss Frankie). MOONSHINE MEMORIES scored a sharp debut victory two weeks ago over Tyfosha. After the wire, ‘MEMORIES galloped out super. The quick turnaround is a concern, but this filly is a good one. GAS STATION SUSHI won her debut impressively, but it likely to scratch; PIEDI BIANCHI will roll late. POETIC rallied to a sharp debut victory over a next-out winner.

EIGHTH RACE

Based on his impressive runner-up debut, ST PATRICK’S DAY enters this maiden race as the most probable winner on the card. A full brother to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah, ST PATRICK’S DAY ran super two weeks ago. He dueled on a fast pace and finished nearly four lengths clear of third while earning a big figure (81 Beyer) for a 2yo. He is quick enough to establish position from the rail. It will take a good colt to beat him. Two first-time starters have dropped hints they are good. MAJOR CABBIE debuts with a work pattern that suggests he is ready to fire first out. He shows back-to-back six-furlong works, capped by a half-mile gate work Aug. 27 that was the second-fastest half-mile work of the day. INSTILLED REGARDED was a $1 million purchase at a 2yo sale in March. ESKIMO ROSES finished a creditable second in his debut. He adds speed.

NINTH RACE

GOODYEARFORROSES, last seen giving Lady Eli a battle in a G1 three months ago, makes her comeback in a G2 that came up void of pace. Although the Del Mar turf course is kind to closers, GOODYEARFORROSES has both speed and a closing kick. Blinkers on, she runs well fresh and can either set or press easy fractions. CAMBODIA shipped to Southern California following a G3 win at Pimlico, and promptly scored in a G2 last month. Sharp filly, proven at the level, in the money all nine on grass, logical contender and among the favorites. DECKED OUT scratched Aug. 16 from a stakes race that was designed as a prep race for this. She returned to the work tab only three days later, and should deliver her patented closing kick while making her first start of 2017. Her only previous start on the Del Mar course was a runner-up finish last summer in the Oaks. INSTA ERMA makes her California debut for a stable that does well with these private acquisitions. Upset candidate.

TENTH RACE

JES JAA faces unrestricted $12.5k claiming sprinters after a highly rated N3L win that was validated when the third- and fourth-place finishers returned to win. Seven furlongs is possibly a reach after a win at five and a half, but he ran well last fall at this “specialty” distance. AIRFOIL won a four-horse claiming race last out with a good number; the veteran gelding he has fared well against similar. PROHIBITION makes his first start since being claimed in February by excellent firstoff-the-claim trainer Bill Spawr. The gelding will run under the name of Spawr’s assistant Darryl Rader. HE’SARULER is likely to improve first start since being claimed by Jeff Mullins; he will roll late. ALEX ROSSI shortens to a sprint after two decisive wins around two turns.

ELEVENTH RACE

Notwithstanding an eight-month layoff and the outside post, ICE KAT is the choice to win this maiden turf race at a mile and an eighth. He finished second both starts on this course last year, proved last fall in his fourth-place debut that he runs well fresh, and trainer Richard Baltas can get layoff horses ready to fire. COMBAT ZONE is gradually improving. His fourth-place finish last out was accomplished with an ideal ground-saving trip. KINEMATICO misfired last out, but back-toback thirds in two previous maiden-claiming turf routes puts him in the hunt. LUCKY WHALEN stretches out following a comeback sprint prep; he can improve at a price. COZMIC ONE will roll late.