ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, RED COTTON

FIRST RACE

Lots and lots of rain in the forecast so we’ll keep that in mind as we H-cap for the day. TOIKIN has speed and that won’t change whether this comes off or not. The rail draw is a plus and this gelding gets in light to help sharpen his speed. IGO FORGREATNESS just ran a Beyer top on this grass and now goes third in current form cycle. Dirt tries aren’t so hot just in case this comes off. POLICY PORTFOLIO is the best of the rest. Things would be best if the 1 and 4 duel early.

SECOND RACE

It is impossible to get excited for this race. In our mind, we have already hit the ALL button in the multi race exotics. R WAY TO ESCAPE has some speed and has won on the dirt before. We think she holds a class advantage to boot. This barn is 21% turf to dirt. Alas, the price will be next to nothing. CINDY’S CANDY often gets play and we can see why. Distance tries 1 and 3 back certainly fit here. Lack of speed hurts as there isn’t much pace in here. CASE DISMISSED didn’t face much last out and only got a 39 Beyer but won she did. We don’t think the added distance is going to be a problem and she did break her maiden at seven panels.

THIRD RACE

STAR GALA is the value, right? We like this filly on the wet or the green. She is bred to like the green but only half of her turf starts have been around two turns. Let’s say she needed that grass effort off the layoff four back OR N1X were too tough. She won two back at 16-1 and got a nice 76 Beyer. Not sure what happened last out other than the girls just throw in a bad one here or there. Race flow is fine as we all know who is going to the front end. SISTINE SISTA is feeling good and goes form one good barn to another. Tactical speed to chase the speed. Speaking of which, TIUNA is the one to catch. A Beyer top last out but was it too good? She won’t be 18-1 again. This barn is only 8% with repeating winners. We spy a couple of others that won’t let her slow this down too much.

FOURTH RACE

CARUCA is by a 2 for 14 debut sire (all sire stats are for 2YO’s only). Her dam is 22-1-0-2 for 13K. Lone sib is 9-0-3-1 for 12K. Works are solid and connections find a logical spot. Trainer stats are tops across the board. TONI ANN’S MIRACLE is your race favorite. Class drop and tactical speed are part of it. A much better post today. HERE’S KELLY broke dead last in her debut but still beat over half the field home. A good shot to improve second time racing. INTACTUS is by a 16% debut sire. Her dam went 19-4-3-2 for 121K. Of 5 sibs to race, only 2 won (29K and 59K).

FIFTH RACE

HOPETOWN gets good race flow. Second time with new barn is a plus. This horse got a taste of winning three back and liked it. TIL THE END is bred to love the grass and proved why on the green at Mountaineer. Current form isn’t very good but those were all on the dirt. A more experienced rider today so that and a return to the green could blow up the tote. If this comes off then trouble. ALBERT CHARLES goes third off the layoff and wants to pass runners. Big odds of late and that should carry over to today.

SIXTH RACE

RED COTTON goes from a 4% barn to a 26% barn. This gelding even has some back class. We think an elongated sprint is a good fit. It would have been nice to see a recent work but we are more than willing to trust new barn. We wouldn’t be shocked to see some tactical speed from this attack post. D. SHIFFLETT should get a good trip even if we don’t care for this post going this distance. This gelding loves to finish 2nd and 3rd. PLAYERS LUCK is your race favorite. Before you bet those rent monies ask yourself why does this colt take some time off? Why the class drop? He should be the speed but we spy a couple others that will keep things honest in the early going. Favorites win a

ton here but they don’t all win.

SEVENTH RACE

A Beyer top in the slop for BENEFICIARY so if this comes off then the playing field tilts in his favor. We think the turf speeds probably declare out if the umbrellas come out and that only helps this gelding that much more. The other MTO is solid also. ADIOS NARDO didn’t fire last out but he took some time off as if something went awry. This gelding is very consistent on this turf notwithstanding prior effort. In fast, his Beyers are 86, 84, 86, 88, 85, 86. How does that not fit here? Race flow is fine if all stay in. TWO STEP TIME escapes stakes foes for this starter allowance. Not sure what happened last out. It is nice to see a recent work while barn is top shelf.

EIGHTH RACE

FEARLESS DRAGON is feeling good, goes third off the layoff, goes second time with new barn, and lures Zayas. He has won on a wet track before. This gelding did run well going two turns at Gulfstream Park West (the old Calder) so maybe today’s added distance won’t be a problem. PRINCE TITO is proven around two turns and dare we say it might prefer it. This 3YO doesn’t have much speed but neither does anyone else. WARREN’S JOE T. has been OK of late but we think he is better around two turns. Form cycle hints at better and this barn shows a flat bet profit with their claimers.

NINTH RACE

RUN VICTORIA RUN showed a little promise at Tampa just before the layoff. Then she comes here and runs 2nd at almost 6-1. Maybe she just loves it here? She gets in light again and could improve second time this green. AUGUST LILLY has hit the exacta in 5 of 8 tries at this distance. She missed a Beyer top by two points in her most recent. Zayas stays put. SU SU’S KITTEN got some pace to chase last out and ran much better. She even went favored. She did face some decent ones at Tampa. Today’s race flow is OK if the 3 doesn’t gun but kinda quick if she does. MISS MASERATI is by a 6% debut turf sire. Her dam went 1-0-0-0 on the green. Two sibs are a combined 2-0-0-0 on the sod. Turf Tomlinson is a decent 316 though.