ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, PAZ THE BOURBON

FIRST RACE

MORE THAN TREASURE back to try turf, this time on the drop, after facing better and, quite frankly, not running well in her only other try on the surface, though that race was also off a very long layoff; blinkers and lasix also going on, and she has speed based on her deceptively good debut last summer, which could be used to positive effect in this spot. RUN BLONDIE RUN dropping and cutting back to sprint for the first time looking for the right spot to break through; has run some good races in tha past without winning, but she did not run well at all when last seen, which makes this drop a little tougher to take. JULIA’S PRIDE a firster for a trainer who has made a positive impression from limited starters, and this filly has pedigree for turf, at least on the face of it (her two winning siblings were both dirt sprinters). CONQUEST LUCKNLOVE can win, but she never does, and she did not improve at all with a perfect trip when switched to the Servis barn last time.

SECOND RACE

TALKN TIL MIDNIGHT is likely a better turf horse, but her two most recent dirt starts have come vs. much better horses, and she may handle this mile distance better than some of her opponents here; like that she brought a bit more positional speed to the table last time, even if it didn’t work out for her in the end. DESIROUS won easily over a weak field traveling this course and distance back on July 4th, and she made a recent return from a short layoff to contest the pace and tire late sprinting in a race that went to closers. IWISHIRISH has improved results incrementally since arriving in NY, though her figures have not followed suit; took over from a weak field of maidens and was clear to the finish while racing a bit erratically in the stretch last time, now has to get an additional furlong.

THIRD RACE

AZAELIA may need this one off the layoff, but think she is better than she looks on paper after landing in a pair of recent races that did not suit her well at all, the first in GP stake that did not flatter closers, and then getting run out by the speedy Isabella Sings in a Grade 3; arrived with solid French form last year, and she was impressive overcoming trouble to win that race at AQU in November. PENJADE the horse to beat on the back off a pair of impressive wins to kick off her year, including that first one back when overocming a slow pace; still needs to work out a trip. SOMETHINGELSE caught yielding ground for first start with this trainer upstate, and she tired late after fighting it out for a while; was facing weaker in Florida, but she was improving through the summer and she has more positional speed than the top two.

FOURTH RACE

NEW JERSEY JOHN gave away early position to wind up far back in the field in his turf debut two starts back, but he raced on gamely late in that spot, and he was spun wide on the first turn while trying to get forward in that last one; can save ground from the inside post this time. SHAMCAT did not run very well last time, but that was a tougher field, and he is supposed to be tough on the class drop with his positional speed; logicalbut it’s not like he holds a big edge, and he will not offer much value. CALCULATED RISKER kept up with an honest pace for the level befroe taking over and finishing clear in the stretch while getting some class relief last time; logcial spot off the claim. NUTZFORBOLTZ back quickly after racing on the outside all the way eight days ago, which was not really the place to be on Saratoga turf at the end of the meet; had trouble two back as well, and this class drop is a positive.

FIFTH RACE

MISSIMPAZI contested a fast pace from the outside all the way before taking over, and she was gamely second-best to a good-looking closer in solid debut run; have to keep in mind that the wet track may have moved her up, but it was a