Little Brown Jug Analysis

For the first time since 1980 only eight horses entered the Little Brown Jug. The low number will result in all eight horses racing twice, first in a $188,928 elimination and then in the $401,472 Final. It should be interesting to see if some of the horses elect to “take it easy” in the elimination to reserve some firepower for the final. Of course, where you finish in the elimination decides your post position for the Final, so you donʼt want to finish too far back.

1 – FUNK N WAFFLES could be an interesting play in the elimination if driver Corey Callahan gets aggressive and refuses to yield. Iʼd be looking for odds in the 12-1 range to take a shot.

2 – FILIBUSTER HANOVER is another potential early speed player starting from an inside post. He never looks particularly fluid with his gait, but the turns on this half-mile track are more kind than most.

3 – FEAR THE DRAGON is probably not 100% after missing four weeks of pari-mutuel action, but he might just be in the right spot if uncoupled stablemate Down by the seaside elects to be patient early on. I see a grinding first-over trip for the leading horse in North America and that tends to be a winning trip over this surface. Plus heʼs already proven he can overcome taking air.

4 – MISO FAST has a pretty good burst of speed at times and could find himself sitting second over behind Fear The Dragon. That potential trip makes him dangerous at a price, though cover trips often donʼt pay off at Delaware.

5 – DOWN BY THE SEASIDE is absolutely the horse to beat in the 72nd Little Brown Jug Final, but I have some major reservations in the elimination. If the goal is to win the Final, why would driver Brian Sears gun his horse off the gate to go for the lead in the elimination when he can take it easy and make the Final with a decent mid-pack post regardless? Maybe Iʼm wrong and heʼll leave hard off the gate, but I wonʼt be betting on it.

6 – BOOGIE SHUFFLE has won three straight and has the early speed to take a shot at the lead. Iʼve seen worse plays at between 20 and 30-1.

7–RJP has been pretty good since the barn change. That said, I just donʼt see a way he can be a threat in either the elimination or Jug Final. 8 – CHIP WALTHER is overmatched on paper starting from post eight.