ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, CERRO

FIRST RACE

MOSCATO has made few mistakes since arriving stateside to race for top connections, and exits a strong win on a distance stretch-out vs. similar at Saratoga. NO WUNDER did not run his best race when behind the top one in a similar race early in the Saratoga meet, but he improved from there, and he was much the best when cut back to a shorter trip last time; has a win over this distance on soft ground from earlier in the year. MUTASAAWY has taken to jumping well since switching over this year; steps up.

SECOND RACE

9-year-old HINTERLAND making second start back from an extended layoff, and he may have benefited from that first run back, where he was unlucky to bump into a runaway winner; threat if back on his best. MODEM may be the one to beat, but he is in the midst of a 1-for-22 run following a pair of losses as the favorite at Saratoga; tries again. ALL THE WAY JOSE romped in new blinkers three starts back, and he held his own to get a piece in the Grade 1 Turf Writers last time while picking up a better rider.

THIRD RACE

REATA’S REWARD shows up with some good works from Delaware for trainer who sent out a 2yo debut winner here last weekend; by a winearly sire, she is out of a dam who was a debut winner before going on to win multiple stakes in her career. VIRADIA debuted sprinting on turf and failed to land a blow after getting outrun early; drops right away while switching to dirt for trainer who is most dangerous with maidens after a race. Interesting that GATA’S APPLAUSE pulls Velazquez for under the radar trainer; dam’s best foal to date is the stakes winner Channel Marker. NANNY ROCKS has speed on both sides of her pedigree for trainer who shipped in with first time starter Stoney Bennett to win for this owner last Friday.

FOURTH RACE

NONNA’S BOY chased the pace from the start and raced on gamely late without impacting in his return from a layoff; stretches out to a better distance for him as he goes off the claim for Levine. LUCKY LOTTO making first start for Diodoro outfit, who have been deadly off the claim with dirt horses since arriving in NY this year; couldn’t get involved from behind a pace that held together last time, but he is another who will appreciate getting a little more distance in this spot. MORNING BUZZ was an easy winner as an MTO entrant in his NY debut over sloppy going, but he failed to make any kind of run after bumping at the start in his first start off the claim; drops right away.

FIFTH RACE

While there are several interesting first time starters in what appears to be a loaded MSW turf route for older horses, I’ll stick with the experienced runners, for now. CLASSIC COVEY making his first start as a 3yo following a long layoff, and doing so as a new gelding; he will also add lasix for this start, after coming with a good finish in his debut at the end of last year, in a race where he had to steady in traffic on the turn. JAHAAFEL sat a nice trip all the way around and raced on gamely to earn a figure that would generally be good enough to win most of the races at this level while first time out, where he was out-finished by a Chad Brown first time starter; tough with a similar performance right back, though he faces another pair from the Brown barn here. One of those is NEZET, a $1.6 million purchase out of the mare Pure Clan, who was a multiple Grade 1-winner on turf in her career. Chad dominates with his 2yos debuting on turf at this track ,but he has not had

as much success with his older horses recently. KULIN ROCK and GO BIG OR GO HOME also first time starters with big pedigrees, the latter the first foal from multiple graded stakes winner Bizzy Caroline, who is a half-sister to Lady Eli. CERRO failed to fire a shot as the favorite last time, but that came over a track that had taken a lot of water midway through the card, and was playing to speed and the inside for the remaining dirt races; chance to rebound off the claim, as his races twoand-three back were strong. A FLEET ATTITUDE a hard-hitter off the claim for a dangerous trainer following game run for second last time; liked his win for this tag off the layoff, though he is facing tougher for the level here. LEX VEGAS dropping in class after failing to run up to his best in pair of Saratoga starts; has speed from the rail as he looks to get back to his spring form, which would make him formidable here.

SEVENTH RACE

FAIR REGIS took awhile to circle back to what was a promising debut run early in the year, but she did that over a track with some moisture in it two starts back, and she lost all chance at the start last time while in way too tough of a spot; drops from a nice outside post. LEAH’S DREAM drops another notch after pressing the pace of the eventual winner and proving to be no match in the stretch for $20k last time out; has speed. RAINY NIGHT tough to trust while returning cheap following an extended layoff, but she ran a couple of races as an early 3yo which suggest that she was cut out to be better than these horses; will have to show some speed from the rail.

EIGHTH RACE

IRON POWER hasn’t won a race in over two years, but he has mostly kept better company while continuing to race competitively, and he is supposed to be tough dropping to this level, after scratching out of a tougher race on Sunday; good try when coming wide from the back and just falling short tow starts back, and he just got in too tough last time. BIRCHWOOD ROAD an infrequent winner, but he tends to show up and run his race, and he is competitive with this kind; good effort taking pressure up front in a race that ultimately went to closers last time. HOBOE was one of the closers out-finishing BIRCHWOOD ROAD in that last one, but 3yo is improving with every start right now.

NINTH RACE

GREAT STUFF has long layoff to overcome, though he has run nothing but good races since arriving in NY, and it’s not like he faces a bunch of prolific winners in this spot; no class drop off the long break for trainer off to a good start at the meet. OSTROLENKA has the recency edge on his stablemate, and he had been holding good from for Jacobson since being claimed early in the year; good spot here after running very well for 2nd in each of his last two starts, which came vs. better. CANDID DESIRE has turned into a one run closer, which does not enhance his appeal, but he has been holding solid form over a long series of races for this trainer; coming gamely too late behind OSTROLENKA last time.

TENTH RACE

GRAND VALOUR had his debut rained off the grass and he lacked any early speed at all in that race, before coming wide and racing on with some interest through the stretch; half to a three-time turf route winner gets a little more distance to work with for trainer who excels with second timestarting maidens, though most of her success in that category has come with dirt horses. HEART IN HAND also making his second career start for Linda Rice, he after making a wide bit and flattening in the stretch upstate; well-bred gelding drops for second career start. TIZ WICKED already 0-5 on turf, but he has improved since concentrating on sprinting this year, and he just missed with a late run at this level last time.