ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, MANOLETE

FIRST RACE

LITTLE BABY BELLA went down as the favorite in her latest but she didn’t break well and she was closing well late; today’s added distance should work to her advantage. SHES GOT THE LUCK rallied some in that last one despite mild splits up front; clearly prefers this surface. LEAVING DIXIE adds blinkers and figures to be a pace factor from her inside post; improvement expected.

SECOND RACE

PUT THE BOSS BACK was game in defeat in his first start against winners, dueling for the lead from the start and yielding only late, and he could be the controlling speed in this seemingly paceless race; Beyers also fit well. KNOCKOUT RANGER was a remote 2nd in his latest but he earned a respectable figure, as the race came up very fast for the class and distance; needs to stay close early on. FLYING ROCKET draws inside and has the early zip to stay close, which could prove to be a considerable edge.

THIRD RACE

TWO STEP TIME ran a sub-par race in his most recent but his prior Beyers fit very well here, and he should be in position to run to those figures if he gets a clean trip behind a quick, contested pace; back from a short freshening but the barn does well with this type. DREAMING OF GOLD is another who stands to benefit from the expected pace scenario; should be rolling late under Jaramillo. Outside of his most recent try, ADIOS NARDO has run races which have resulted in steady, solid figures; easy to like if you can overlook that last one.

FOURTH RACE

PRINCE TITO failed his turf test last time out but he returns to the main track today and he was running well in his most recent dirt tries — he middle moved two back, and he was against the race flow three back; looking to close, but he should get some help up front. FEARLESS DRAGON stretches out, and the barn does very well with horses moving from sprints to routes; he’s been away a few months and those stats are also solid (24%). JAIDEN’S BEST has speed and could be the one to catch; could get brave if able to set his own pace, as he did in his latest.

FIFTH RACE

SOMETHING JAK is out of an unraced dam but she produced six winners; trainer Gilberto Zerpa wins at a high rate with firsters, and does well with horses debuting on the turf and with first time starters in maiden claimers. L. A. HOUSE ran the best race of her short career in her latest, and a similar effort puts her squarely in the middle of this; tactical speed a big plus. GRAN TOMCAT is out of a stakes-placed dam who produced a pair of minor winners; latest breeze was her best yet.

SIXTH RACE

SCOTUSCARE had trouble in his debut, checking sharply down the backstretch, but he recovered enough to run a solid race for the show; obvious threat here with a clean trip. XOM WIIL is the first starter from the dam, and while this barn doesn’t have great stats with firsters this colt does have some decent works showing; could offer some value. NONSUCH has speed and the rail, and competitive Beyers; four losses at short prices dampen the enthusiasm some, however.

SEVENTH RACE

GO CRISTIAN GO is winless on the turf but he ran well in defeat in his last two, both sprints; this certainly appears to be his best game at this stage, and he’ll be tough today if he runs to those last two

starts. BARROOMBOUNCER makes his first start on the grass and his first start off the claim; barn’s solid record with new faces (31%) and decent rate with turf sprinters (17%) make him easy to like.

WALTERJEEP weakened late time after dueling for the lead, and while there wasn’t a lot of speed in there he could be the main speed in this one as well.

EIGHTH RACE

MANOLETE drops in class and has a clear and decided Beyer edge, which makes him the one to beat; likely to be a short price but he’s tough to go against, as he’s going to be a handful if he’s able to run to those figures. QUENANE posted a 76 Beyer in that last one, and if he’s able to run to that one he’ll give the top pick a run for his money; that race was run in the slop, and it could be an aberration, but he has to be respected. EYE OF THE LION closed some ground in his first start vs. winners and he could pick up some of the pieces late.

NINTH RACE

Whether it was the Lasix or the surface change, MONEY FACTOR moved up dramatically in that last one, when she added the medication for the first time and moved to the grass; clearly a big threat today on the strength of that running line. SAMURAI’SFIRSTLADY also jumped up and ran a big race in her first start on the green, and she’s the main threat to the top pick; moves inside after breaking from post nine in her latest, which should help her as she tries to make the early lead. MAURAS FOREVER was behind the top pair last time out but she can move up here if she gets a better set-up in terms of pace.

TENTH RACE

GRUBERED makes his first start off the claim for a barn which is winning at a 30% rate with same, and that makes him a threat by default; trainer Angel Rodriguez also wins at a solid rate with turf sprinters. LITTLE MATT cuts back to a sprint and makes his first start for a tag; clearly has credentials to win this despite inexperience under these conditions. IGO FORGREATNESS is an obvious threat today after a near-miss in his latest; certainly aided by the quick pace there but he could be the main threat once again today.