ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, HOW’S MY BUD

FIRST RACE

CRACK YOUR WHIP is a value play at her 6-1 morning line in the opener. She gets a pass for her last two starts, first when outclassed in a second-level allowance and then when racing on turf, a surface on which she isn’t nearly as effective as dirt; beat DELUSIONAL K K over this track in June late in the spring meet. DELUSIONAL K K is usually about 3-4 lengths faster than the top choice to the first call allowing her to stalk the pace in most of her starts. That should be an advantage in a race not having much speed; honest, but expecting regression off that last-race 76 Beyer, which came at Belterra. FIVE STAR NAP moves back to dirt after a decent third against Illinois-bred allowance horses on the Poly at Arlington; on the board in 6 of 10 this year and 2 for 2 at Churchill.

SECOND RACE

I wanna a WHOLE LOTTA LUCK... He is dropped sharply in class after an exiting an ultra-live allowance at Ellis - though never a factor in running last of 12; back to his preferred surface on dirt after racing on the turf. Both his wins came on this track in just four races locally. HANDY CANDY fits off form and figures, but hard to like him from a value perspective as the favorite - coming here from Canterbury, a ‘B’ level track. WHATEVERYBODYWANTS, a stakes winner at 3, was given a short freshening after a seventh at Arlington Aug. 6 on the grass; didn’t work for nearly a month after the race, but has breezed swiftly twice in September.

THIRD RACE

This is a puzzling maiden $20,000 claimer in which few have shown much to encourage .... MOSCA gets the ever-so-slight edge, dropping from the straight maiden ranks, though he has yet to race on dirt; quick dirt work for the move from grass to the Churchill main track. GRANDPA FRANK looks quite similar to the top choice in that he is going turf-to-dirt after twice being unplaced on the grass at Ellis; adds blinkers and Lanerie for highpercentage trainer Brad Cox. TAKEDOWN failed to beat anyone in a six-horse field when unveiled at Ellis Park in august, though he made have needed a start with that being his debut; owners are willing to run him for just $20,000 after buying him for $120,000 a year ago.

FOURTH RACE

AS I PLEASE should improve with experience and Lasix after rallying for third in a maiden race at Ellis Park last month; is the only horse in the body of the field to have run - the others are all first timers. QUEEN MUM is a debuting runner by Paynter that worked a bullet half mile in 47 2/5 seconds Sept. 5 and some near-bullets before that; acts quick. Like QUEEN MUM, BOOTSY’S HADENOUGH is by Paynter, a promising young sire; fast works at Keeneland after selling earlier this year for a modest $65,000 as a 2-year-old in training; lands Lanerie.

FIFTH RACE

This $10,000 nonwinners-of-two claimer is a head scratcher...giving the nod to class-dropping ARCELOR, who starts for the winning Brendan Walsh barn; perhaps upside with a cutback in distance after showing speed and fading in routes. DOMINANT CLASS weakened against better in a Sept. 4 comeback at Ellis Park after making a wide, middle move; should exhibit more staying power in her second race of the year. TIMIDO is speedy and has made the majority of her starts against better, but concerned about her not having any published works since July 29 and being 6-0-0-1 on dirt; seems to run a little more effectively on synthetic and turf.

SIXTH RACE

After running poorly first out in the fall of last year LIFEFULLOFREINBOWS has been competitive in all four races this year; he was fourth in May, followed that with a second and third in two starts in June, and then was second at Ellis; hot-riding Brian Hernandez Jr. up. FOCUSED managed to grab sixth in her debut after a slow start when racing against straight maidens at Ellis Park; get a little more distance and has a flashy pedigree, being by Distorted Humor and out of a Grade 3 winner. TRUE BOOTS has hit the board in 3 of 5 races on dirt, but hasn’t raced since a fourth at Keeneland in April, and the time on the sidelines puts her at a likely fitness disadvantage.