ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, SHE’S LUCKY THAT WAY

FIRST RACE

LUCKY PEGASUS chased the pace and weakened both recent starts vs. better maiden-claiming company at Del Mar than he meets in this maiden30 at Los Alamitos. The six-start maiden drops in class, could be the speed of the field, and can be gone. FABRICATION improved second out, a fourth-place finish less than two weeks ago on this track. He probably benefitted from the slow fractions, but except for the top choice, this race is not exactly loaded with speed. He did not get any help at the draw; the inside post positions have been underproductive this meet in sprints. First-time starter SKAGIT RIVER got the worst of the draw. He debuts with decent enough workouts, but is stuck on the rail for the first start of his career. Sired by the good debut stallion Creative Cause, SKAGIT RIVER is the first foal out of a modestly talented dam.

SECOND RACE

First-time starter YA GOTTA WANNA has a solid workout pattern for his career debut in this maiden-40 sprint; trainer Phil D’Amato is 3-for-8 with older firsters at Los Alamitos. CHRIS IS COOKIN could be the speed of the field. Each start has been better than the start before; he finished fourth last time after pressing a fast pace in his first wearing blinkers. He has been based at this track all summer, and could pose an elusive target on the front end. I CRUSHED IT is another first-time starter with a workout pattern that suggests he is ready to roll. Sired by Dunkirk, he is a sibling to five winners.

THIRD RACE

SHE’S LUCKY THAT WAY looks like a standout in this $8k claiming N2L sprint. She has speed in a small field that lacks speed. Her recent form is solid, back-to-back thirds vs. claiming 3yos. She is drawn outside, could fall into the lead, and win with a front-running/pace-pressing trip. The knock is price. Her odds are likely to be low. PAPA MAMBO finished third two weeks ago in a Cal-bred N1X allowance, now she drops to below the $12.5k level at which she was claimed two starts back. The pattern does not exactly inspire confidence, but if she fires, she is fast enough to win at this level. SMIL’N FROM ABOVE rarely wins, but often hits the board. Her 94 starts produced 3 wins, 20 seconds and 19 thirds. She could clunk up to complete a miniscule trifecta payoff.

FOURTH RACE

Another first-time starter that appears well meant, MR. TOP FLEET gets the call off his string of solid workouts. Sired by Passion for Gold, ‘FLEET is a sibling to New York-based nine-time winner You Lie. WHAT’S INSIDE also makes his career debut. His workouts are good enough, this trainer popped with a first-time starter here opening week. MR. FULLERTON might be best of the familiar faces. He finished a long way back in his career debut at Del Mar, but at least he showed speed before backing up. With a race under his belt and a cutback in distance to five and onehalf furlongs, the gelding is likely to stick around longer. NEHEMIAH showed speed both starts, retreated both starts. Outside post, class drop, hot trainer, upset chance.

FIFTH RACE

PAPA TED meets easier than he faced opening day, when he dueled through a fast pace and weakened. He drops from Cal-bred maiden-40 to open maiden-20, is drawn directly outside his main pace rival, and can steal it. DIXIE REBEL raced wide and split the field in a creditable debut. That race may have been designed purely as a prep. If so, the drop to maiden-20 makes sense. It won’t take much more than his 55 Beyer to win. BEYOND WONDERFUL is the aforementioned pace rival for the top choice. ‘WONDERFUL improved a bunch second out, fourth after dueling between rivals. Easier bunch here, he will be one of the logical favorites. RICK’S DREAMS has the top figures, a series of 60-plus Beyers in sprint. He wanted no part of two turns either start at Del Mar, but now shortens back to a sprint and returns to the track on which he ran the best race of his career in July.

SIXTH RACE

FERNET ME NOT and POCO SUENOS are the only entrants in this maiden route that have run long. While both 2yo maiden-claiming fillies are quali-

fied, the edge goes to the one that has had fewer chances. That is FERNET ME NOT, who ships from Northern California where she ran well last out in a mile turf race. Making just the second start of her career, she finished fourth by less than four lengths. That was her comeback from a twomonth layoff, she is likely to improve second start back if she handles dirt. PACO SUENOS faced better maidens at Del Mar than the top choice met. ‘SUENOS finished sixth and fourth vs. special weight rivals; this maiden-30 represents a significant drop in class. She could start favored. HAPPY MAGGIE finished an okay fourth in her return from a two-month break. She stretches out, should be forwardly placed, and is likely to improve second start back.

SEVENTH RACE

Runner-up by a nose last out in an open $25k claiming mile on the Del Mar turf, LINDANTE drops significantly in class to face California-bred N1X/ optional $20k claiming at one mile. His most recent win was on this track at this level; he is entered for the optional tag while making his first start since being claimed by Jeff Mullins. Could be a standout, actually. SENATOR ROBERT has never won in dirt (16 tries), but his two most recent starts on dirt at Del Mar were solid. He was caught wide from post 10 last out, yet rallied to second while more than two lengths clear of third in a relatively fast race. This will be his first start at Los Al, and first since changing trainers. STORM COMIN THRU makes his first start of 2017. His efforts in 2016 would be plenty good enough to win again at this level. He won the first Cal-bred condition early last year, he returns while not eligible to be claimed. That is usually an optimistic signal. MR. ABILITY stretches out to a distance he should like. Upsetter second start back?

EIGHTH RACE

GONE WITH IT is 1-for-21, but he has faced much better and might be the speed of the field. Second start back from a layoff, down to an all-time low level, come and catch him. ARTHUR’S HONOR has an upset chance based primarily on the pace scenario. There really is not much speed signed up; his running style is to set or press. LION’S LUCK also drops in class, two weeks after a midpack finish vs. tougher. KENJI’S SAVIOR has run races that put him in the hunt.