ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, MAIN ROAD

FIRST RACE

VALDOCCO has settled for second-best in four of his seven starts to date, but he has been facing good horses right along, and this race offers significant class relief as he switches to new trainer who has been making a positive impression from limited starters, so far; chased up close to a pace that fell apart in his NY debut, but his speed projects to play better in this field. RIVER DEEP also owns some early speed, and he drops another notch for this after proving to be no match for an even-money favorite up on the lead last time. QUAI VOLTAIRE has had enough chances already, but he is back down in class for this, can run from off the pace, and has hit the board in all five main track starts at this level. WHY GOD making belated debut for a tag; half to millionaire Zivo, who also raced for this trainer, won’t have to be nearly as good as his older brother to be effective here.

SECOND RACE

TIZ A CHANCE effective sprinting on turf, he just needs to stay at the right level, and this may be more like it after facing much tougher open claimers in his last three starts; closed into a fast pace for 2nd three starts back, but he doesn’t have to have that kind of setup to be effective. LONE TRADER at his best as a closing sprinter on turf, so this cutback works for him after trying the mile to no avail last time; needs some pace to set up his run, but he often falls short even when he gets it. HARLAN’S QUEST went back to back when cut back to sprint on turf earlier this summer, and he has faced better in his last two starts; back to the right level for his NY debut, and he has some speed to put into play. Not sure how short I’d be willing to go on SALLISAW, who has the look of a horse who will take money in this race, but recognize that this class relief benefits him, and he is bred for turf.

THIRD RACE

AVERY ISLAND got bet for his debut at Saratoga, but he didn’t look anything like a sprinter while getting out-paced early, and he tired down the stretch to wind up at the back of the field; bred to do better with the added distance he’ll see here, and is eligible to improve quickly. BIBLICAL a half to the multiple Grade 1-winning dirt router Princess of Sylmar, and he will add blinkers as he stretches out for his second start, after getting away greenly from the gate and failing to make an impact first time out; picked it up in solid breeze leading up to this. FIRST WARRIOR debuted in the same race as stablemate AVERY ISLAND, and he was off slowly from the gate before putting in a mild wide run around the turn; well-bred colt in nicely drawn toward the outside.

FOURTH RACE

CRUZ DIEZ managed to avoid the stretch traffic that so obviously affected both LUNAIRE and FUNTASTIC in that 9/2 race for this condition upstate, but he gave away plenty of early position in that race in order to save ground from the far outside post, before racing on evenly late; likely to be too big a price once again, and he has run some good races on turf, including maiden win which was accomplished after he completely blew the start; finished close up to LUNAIRE in that tough 6/9 allowance here after another slow start. LUNAIRE may not have been beating the impressive Let’s Get Loud in that last one, but he was all jammed up in traffic in the stretch, before gamely getting up for 2nd late; solid turf form, but his trouble last time was hard to miss. FUNTASTIC may not get as much fanfare for his trip in that 9/2 race, but he never got a chance to run in the stretch after getting caught behind horses, and he was impressive with a better trip when winning his turf debut. VIA EGNATIA is interesting moving back to grass after failed dirt experiment behind Takaful last time; impeccably bred colt shaped with some promise on turf in Europe.

FIFTH RACE

FAVORABLE OUTCOME doesn’t have to win this as he starts back from the layoff, but he has flashed plenty of potential on dirt for top connections, and 96 Beyer earned for early season debut in winning Grade 2 suggests that he will be tough with any natural development. HARLAN PUNCH two for two off the Jacobson claim, with a pair of career-best figures to go along with the victories; worked out a nice trip from the rail in that last one, though he didn’t break particularly sharply, and he starts from down there once again. BEASLEY was off the layoff and going a distance that may be a bit short for him at Saratoga last month, but he overcame those things to gamely prevail in a solid 1x field; has flashed plenty of ability to this point, and he still has forward to go.

SIXTH RACE

MAIN ROAD didn’t pan out as a dirt horse despite running respectably on that surface; drops in class to make his grass debut for Maker, and he is bred to handle it as a half to three turf winners, including Jaipur winner Upgrade, who made over $500k on turf in his career; right kind of spot if he can handle the switch. CONSUMERCONFIDENCE sat a nice trip but was no match for starter allowance rivals in his first start with other winners most recently; drops right away with the top two turf Beyers in the field. SON OF MINE eventually prevailed after an outside trip in his turf debut, and he simply got in too tough vs. subsequent stakes winner White Flag last time; big class drop.

SEVENTH RACE

TAKAFUL impressed in his return to sprinting on opening day upstate, and he backed that race up quite well when rambling on a fast pace and staying gamely late over seven furlongs in the Jerkens last time; has the speed of EL DEAL to contend with here, but he is drawn outside that rival, and think the cut back to six helps him. EL DEAL blew out a weak Grade 1 field right on the front end last time, and earned a big figure in the process, but it may be worth noting that he was with an intensely inside, speed-favoring track all the way in that race, and he also caught a track that was kind to speed when winning at Monmouth in his prior start; has always been a talented horse, but he may be a bit dressed up off his three races since joining this barn, and he may be facing some tougher competition this time. STALLWALKIN’ DUDE was too close to a pace that took awhile to develop in the Forego, and he gave way in the stretch in what was a disappointing effort overall; concerned that he is not at his best right now, but he fits this race well with his ability to close, and his best race would give him a big look in here. MR. CROW has been impressive while hanging up strong figures in his last two starts, but he was beating up on much weaker horses in those races, and he is going to be facing much more pace that he has ever seen in this race; interested to see how he deals with it.

EIGHTH RACE

MARAUD was bet strongly for his debut toward the end of the Saratoga meet, and he did not disappoint while coming strongly to take that race over, and then gamely denying a challenge from the green Desert Stone in the stretch; professional colt can take the step necessary to handle graded stakes assignment right off that impressive win. VOTING CONTROL enters with top figure in the field earned for his debut win over this turf course just 20 days ago; looked good powering by that field in the late stages, though he did have a solid pace in front of him setting up that run. SEABHAC a maiden on the way in, but he was always down toward the inside in his career debut, before gamely getting up for 2nd, and he did not have the best of trips when shuffled back to last coming to the stretch and then finishing gamely late in the With Anticipation last time.

NINTH RACE

ELATE has finally started to deliver on her early promise for Mott, and she looks too tough to go against in Grade 1 Beldame that came up weak; showed that she belongs with the best of her generation when gamely second-best in the CCA Oaks, and she was dominant in the Alabama last time while earning a figure that her competition will have a hard time matching. ESKENFORMONEY not exactly a Grade 1-type, but she is rock-solid, and has been for a couple of years now for top connections; benefits from the return to one-turn racing here, as she is simply not as good around two, though this may not be her best distance. VERVE’S TALE will have no trouble with the nine furlongs after winning the Grade 3 Comely at the end of last year, and then narrowly prevailing over this trip at Saratoga last time; will have trouble dealing with ELATE’s good race, but she may be the most likely upsetter, if you’re looking to go against the heavy favorite.

TENTH RACE

MEKHTAAL arrived with solid group form from France, but he did not get the greatest trip or ride in the world when only managing to finish 10th in the Arlington Million; likes firm ground, and distance doesn’t seem to be an issue for 4yo who fits a positive trainer profile for Motion (past five years, first after trainer change, first time Lasix, turf: 20 for 59, 34%, $3.59 ROI). SADLER’S JOY may have moved too soon when blowing a clear lead in disappointing Bowling Green loss, but he made amends in a big way when timing it better to strongly close down the Grade 1 Sword Dancer last time; kicks hard, and he loves the distance. BEACH PATROL an unknown over this trip, but he is a game fighter who owns nice tactical speed, and he consistently runs races that will make him tough here; may be in the position of having to keep the talented 3yo OSCAR PERFORMANCE honest on the lead in this race.