ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, PARADISE WOODS

FIRST RACE

First post 12:30 p.m. Saturday. PUBILIUS SYRUS is the one to beat in this turf route for 2yo maidens. Third in his California debut, he followed with an improved effort next out in a stakes race. He rallied inside, briefly threatened for the lead, and missed by only a length and a half. Good effort, albeit with a perfect trip. Class drop to maiden ranks, logical choice despite post 10. INSCOM was hammered to odds-on in his debut, but everything went wrong. Hopped and broke slowly, steadied on the first turn, pressed and cracked. It was a forgivable debacle. A sibling to G1 turf winner Lochte, INSCOM should handle the switch to grass. Tab for an improved effort with a less eventful trip. SHANE ZAIN set the pace and tired in a useful fifth-place debut. He also can improve.

SECOND RACE

BOLSTER came out firing in his California debut, winning a state-bred maiden-50 by more than four lengths with a number (79 Beyer) fast enough for this starter allowance. A full brother to G1 winner Points Offthebench and G3 winner Bench Points, BOLSTER can win right back with a forwardly placed trip from the outside post. SUPREME VENTURE is a legitimate threat from off the pace in a sprint with plenty of speed. This is his first start in nearly two months; he runs well fresh and likes the Santa Anita surface. HAWKS PEAK wired maiden-40s (open company) with an impressive display of speed. He and the top choice both are quick.

THIRD RACE

INSTILLED REGARD, a $1.05 million son of Arch, looks like a good one for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. The colt’s runner-up debut at Del Mar was promising. Off slowly, he closed ground and missed by less than a half-length in a race that looked like a schooling run. He posted three works since then over the Santa Anita track, and should move forward with a race under his belt. MOURINHO has looked impressive in morning works (viewed on XBTV.com). Trained by Bob Baffert, the son of Super Saver is likely to come out firing. PEACE debuts with workout pattern that suggests he is fit, although a host of gate works is a potential concern. He was sired by Violence, whose progeny have won at a 16 percent clip first time out according to Thoro-Graph.

FOURTH RACE

BIG BUZZ improved second out, fifth by less than two lengths in the same stakes race that race-1 favorite Pubilius Syrus exits. A full sibling to G3 winner Big Score, BIG BUZZ returns to the maiden ranks as the tepid choice to win from off the pace. SO LONG SAILOR produced speed second time out when he stretched out and set the pace to deep stretch before fading to fifth. Not bad. Turf should be okay based on pedigree; he was sired by Quality Road. The improving 2yo has more tactical speed than the top choice. FLEETWOOD drops in class after running in the two biggest races of summer at Del Mar, the G3 Best Pal and G1 Futurity. Two turns and turf are new, the main benefit is the class drop. PITCHING finished only two lengths behind Encumbered last out; that rival returned to win the Del Mar Juvenile Turf.

FIFTH RACE

Recent workouts by PARADISE WOODS suggest she will return to her top form of spring, when she romped in the Santa Anita Oaks. If so, this G1 is hers to lose. She had legit excuses her last two (pace battle Kentucky Oaks, severe bobble at start in comeback). The filly’s most recent work was super; she cut the corner rallying inside a workmate and drew away. The five-start filly may have more raw ability than her older rivals, she is more versatile than her front-running record suggests,

and if she runs like she trains, this race is history.

SHENANDOAH QUEEN switched to dirt and scored a sharp Del Mar upset last out in just her second start since a private purchase and trainer switch to John Sadler. She has speed, she can finish, and she also has trained well since returning to Santa Anita. She was 20-1 last out, but the race was not a fluke. Expect another big effort. FAITHFULLY will be chugging along late; she finished less than two lengths behind Stellar Wind two back before she regressed last out. She might prefer this surface rather than Del Mar. ROCKPORT BABE, a sprinter supplemented to this for $6k, will lead as far as she can. She gives PARADISE WOODS a target to chase. The pick six starts here. This N1X turf route is ripe for an upset by front-runner BUCKYS PICK. He set a fast pace last out at Del Mar, led to deep stretch, and finished second at 20-1. He stretches from a mile and a sixteenth to a mile and an eighth, over a turf course that generally produces more front-running winners than Del Mar. BUCKYS PICK looks like the controlling speed, and can be gone at a price. Can we get 6-1? That would be an overlay. If the pacesetter fades, that will be fine for lightly raced KENCUMIN, who was compromised by the race shape in his fourth-place debut. The pace was slow, the frontrunners positioned 1-3-4 dominated, and KENCUMIN rallied from next to last to finish fourth by two. Good effort, actually. Solid workouts continue; this French-bred colt can only improve. RITZY A. P. gets Flavien Prat for the first time, while re-adding blinkers and dropping from a sixth in the G2 Del Mar Derby. TROUBLEWITHATEE has improved since he was gelded prior to his summer comeback, though he was fortunate to win a maiden race last out. The runner-up had trouble and was best.

SEVENTH RACE

MOONSHINE MEMORIES was wheeling back just two weeks after her winning debut when she wired the G1 Del Mar Debutante last out. Now she has had four weeks between starts; the manner in which she galloped out following her debut suggests two turns will be fine. Simon Callaghan trains the filly, whose challenge is pace. That is because Bob Baffert entered two others with speed. They include JUST A SMIDGE, who was solidly bumped at the break in the Debutante, and backed up as the favorite. Her debut in late July was outstanding. Not sure how far she will run, but she is fast and probably will set the pace from the outside post. Her stablemate is ALLURING STAR, fast-pace debut winner four weeks ago. Two turns should be fine for her. Baffert has won this G1 for 2yo fillies 10 times in the past 20 years. PIEDI BIANCHI finished second in the Debutante; turf stakes winner TERRA’S ANGEL would appreciate a pace meltdown. She is the only entrant that has won around two turns.

EIGHTH RACE

BOLT D’ORO won both sprints at Del Mar, including the G1 Futurity, but he always trained like a colt that wants two turns. His win in the seven-furlong Futurity was solid; he broke slowly, lost ground rallying wide and won going away. Two turns should be ideal for the Medaglia d’Oro colt. However, the colt he defeated ran at least as well. That is ZATTER, who was wheeling back in 15 days when he set the blazing pace in the Futurity, fought back in the lane, and finished more than four lengths clear of third. Big effort by a colt that must use his speed from the inside post. He could have company on the front end, but if the temperature is as hot as forecast, and the track favors speed, ZATTER should stay the trip. SOLOMINI won his debut, a sprint. Sired by Curlin, two turns should be good. ENCUMBERED will rally late. He won a pair of routes this summer at Del Mar, albeit on turf. TEXAS WEDGE is the speed of the speed. Not sure how far he will run, but that question applies to most in the field.

NINTH RACE

AVENGE had an alibi for misfiring as the favorite last out in a G2. She got upset in the gate, jumped back and forth, and knocked a hole in the back of her left ankle. That explains why she faded and finished next to last. She also was compromised by the race shape; the 1-2-3 finishers rallied from the back of the field. This mile and one-quarter G1 should unfold at a tepid pace; AVENGE can rebound with a frontrunning/pace-pressing trip. GOODYEARFORROSES could go favored after runner-up finishes behind Lady Eli and Cambodia. She developed this summer into one of the top female turf runners in California, she handles the distance, and enters without a flaw. MAJESTIC HEAT won her comeback in August at Del Mar. The California-bred stakes winner is fresh and could get a good trip positioned right behind a slow pace.

TENTH RACE

CUPID won by “only” three-quarters of a length last out as the odds-on favorite, but he seemed to be goofing around in deep stretch after he hit the front. His dominating win two starts back in the G1 Gold Cup on this track stamps him the class of the field and an upset candidate next out in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. MUBTAAHIJ, G2 winner and multiple G1-placed, came around quickly since shipping to California and joining the Baffert stable. Solid works, blinkers on, he should come back firing. CURLIN RULES finished second to the top choice last out; if he can avoid a pace duel with MIDNIGHT STORM he fits on the front end.

ELEVENTH RACE

A challenging, wide-open turf sprint for 3yo fillies ends the card; LITTLE JUDE can win up front if she reproduces her fast-pace N1X upset going five furlongs at Del Mar. Six and one-half furlongs is a challenge, but she is a sibling to multiple G1 turf route winner Little Mike. KENDA has two wins and two seconds in four starts on the hill. She tried a pair of routes in summer at Del Mar, to no avail. This is what she wants to do, sprint on the hill. KATHY’S SONG had a brutal trip in the Del Mar Oaks, then wheeled back and defeated older N2X fillies and mares. Probably a parallel class move to this stakes for 3yo fillies. TAKE A DEEP BREATH is the strangerdanger, making her California debut for a productive trainer-jockey combo that is 6-for-15 since early last month.