ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, PINK SANDS

FIRST RACE

GOTHAM NEWS tried sprinting here two weeks ago, and he got out-paced right from the start before having to alter course around a rival going wrong on the far-turn; stretches back out with the back races to be hard on this field. IN EQUALITY ran a solid race while engaging in a hard duel and then finishing well clear of the remainder when dropped into restricted claiming company for his second start off the claim back in February, but he bombed in his next two starts and was sent to the sidelines; threat if bouncing back into form off the layoff. SOUTHERN UNION cut the pace and was ultimately no match for favored Holding Aces last time; speed projects to play well in this field, and he has improved for this trainer.

SECOND RACE

SAND DANCER got into some early trouble and never recovered in muddy debut upstate; half to six-time turf route winner Shock Leader can do better with that one out of the way, and he has not landed in the toughest high-priced maiden here, assuming he can turf. MAKE IT WORK sat a trip and took his shot before proving to be no match in strong MSW turf route at Saratoga; class relief significant for this race. HOARD has done little running in first two starts on the main track; dam is a sister to the excellent turf router Request for Parole (Grade 1 United Nations winner put over $1.3 million in the bank), so perhaps he can step it up a bit on grass.

THIRD RACE

MADEFROMLUCKY was languishing as an older stakes horse for Pletcher, but he appeared to find his calling when stretched out to crush Grade 3 rivals over a mile and a half at Parx last time, a field that included several of the horses he will meet again here; hard to go against on that Greenwood Cup evidence. TURCO BRAVO was once capable of a race that would give even the MADEFROMLUCKY of the Greenwood Cup all he wanted; likely claimed by sharp trainer with the thought of taking a shot in a race like this in mind. SCUBA set the pace and stopped in disappointing Greenwood Cup run last time, and he has clearly had a difficult time getting back to his excellent late-season form from last year; would be too much for this field if he could run one of those last three races from the end of 2016, but it getting more and more difficult to believe that he is still capable.

FOURTH RACE

INITIATE blew a couple of clear stretch leads over course and distance during the spring/ summer meet here, and while it’s not exactly to just forgive her for those losses and move on, it’s not as though she ran poorly in those races, and think she benefits from getting cut back for this race after taking pressure going longer in that last one upstate; one final chance. OVERNEGOTIATE has clearly improved on turf, and she handled the added distance when getting the better of KAHRUMANA after a stretch fight on August 3rd, only to get closed down by a last-to-first winner on the money; forget that last one in the slop, which was dominated by her entry mate. KAHRUMANA tried gamely before succumbing to the pressure of OVERNEGOTIATE two starts back, and she lost all chance when impeded and shut off in the stretch last time; can win but not sure I’d want to bet her as the favorite, which the morning line suggests she will be.

FIFTH RACE

RAPSCALLION has posted each of his last three wins over seven furlongs, but he is effective over this distance, as well, and he ran well last time after a bit of an awkward start behind frontrunning Abiding Star, who returned to win again on the rise. CAPTAIN GAUGHEN starting back from a layoff, but he is tough in this kind of race with his best effort, has fired off the layoff in the past, and he has held good form since joining the Servis barn this year; big class drop. TIZNOBLE making first start since being claimed by Jacobson 69 days ago, and he has been listed as a vet scratch in the interim, but he has speed and solid

turf form to point to, and he ran pretty well in that last one when contesting the pace over a sloppy track; threat if he can sprint on grass. PINK SANDS out of a mare who won a Grade 1 sprinting, but she appeared to want more ground while working hard chasing the pace throughout that sloppy track debut at the end of the Saratoga meet, before racing on gamely late; good post as she stretches out a bit, and Lasix goes on for the second start. NAVAJO came wide and finished gamely in her debut before just getting outfinished by an experienced rival who came clear to her inside; expect her to improve for that run for trainer who excels with second-time starters. MOCKERY made a game late run into a setup in her career debut, then brought more speed to the track second time out, only to prove to be no match for an impressive debut winner; can still do better, and she bred to handle the added distance. BIG BIRTHDAY debuting over a tough distance from tricky inside draw, but she brought a big ticket after working 10.2 back in March, and she is bred to route being a Mineshaft out of a dam who is a half-sister to It’s Tricky.

SEVENTH RACE

ALABAMA BOUND isn’t exactly a winning-type, but she has continued to hold her form - at least when they let her use her speed - and think cutting back to this distance can benefit her, as the seven furlongs still benefits the route-types; one more chance. SWEET AUGUST LADY won her turf debut with a game late run over this turf course, and while she didn’t go forward upstate, she may not be a true two-turn type horse, and she was never really in a position to make an impact in that last one when sitting last on the rail all the way around to the stretch. ROCK AVE. ROAD facing tougher here, but she has been in good form this year, and she ran into traffic in the stretch last time while perhaps still having a chance to make an impact; distance may push her a bit.

EIGHTH RACE

SIGNIFICANT FORM went greenly early in her debut, and her loss of concentration ultimately cost her a win after she interfered with several rivals heading to the first turn, but none of that distracts from the overall impression she made after recovering to flat overpower that field in the stretch; training strongly into Grade 3 assignment, for which she is a maiden on paper only. She will not have an easy time with the experienced and clearly talented ORBOLUTION, however, who enters at 2 for 2 on turf, with one win more impressive than the next; sat a perfect trip en route to stakes score last time, but she was impressive nonetheless while settling that race quickly once getting through on the rail; form ensures that a horse like SIGNIFICANT FORM has to improve to win this. AFRICA a new face making stateside debut with a trainer chance to Chad Brown; races in France have only been okay, but she is eligible to improve with distance and Lasix.

NINTH RACE

SOLID was at the back of that field for a long way after a slow start in his debut, but he put in a game late run while splitting horses into 3rd in promising debut; eligible to improve quickly with that one behind him. VITAL took the money for early season debut on dirt, where he tired after contesting the pace and then went to the sidelines; threat to improve with the time and surface switch, as his sire has been effective with turf sprinters early on, and VITAL is a half to the good turf sprinter Katie’s Kiss. Somewhat surprised that IMPACT PLAYER isn’t getting another chance on dirt after 79 Beyer debut, where he dueled with a heavy favorite for a long way before just falling short; no reason, however, that he won’t turf as a City Zip from a dam who is a half-sister to the great Candy Ride.