ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, FIRST PREMIO

FIRST RACE

ALICE’S WAR raced wide throughout a month ago, when fourth beaten four and a half lengths. She was a much closer fourth the time before, and could prevail at a square price here while reacquiring blinkers. MOZAMBIQUE GOLD brings solid front-running form to this event, and should be the dominant speed with Da Silva back aboard. VIVA FOREVER could be along to pick up some of the pieces under Hernandez, who was up for her last triumph.

SECOND RACE

LAILAS PRINCESS actually crossed the wire on top in her last Tapeta start June 17, when she was disqualified for interference. She’s dropping to the lower maiden ranks from $16K, and doesn’t have much to beat. PASTURE CURFEW could crack the top three on the turnback to a distance over which she’s yet to compete. STORMBEAM is plunging from OS maiden special/$40K company to $10K off a layoff. Contreras is 3 for 9 at the meet for this barn.

THIRD RACE

VIVACITAS is strongly bred for the grass on the dam’s side, and the daughter of turf-negative sire Bernardini has been working over the turf training course. Several of her earlier Tapeta works were good, and the seven-furlong distance of this maiden special should be right up her alley. ROAD TO VICTORY, a $500K 2yo purchase by successful first-out sire Quality Road, has worked fast for leading trainer Casse. AUNTIE KATHERINE broke inward before saving ground en route to a sixthplace at first asking in the allowance prep for the Natalma Stakes.

FOURTH RACE

GINGER CANDY was a front-running second and an even fourth in her two tries at this level during the summer. She figures to give it a big speed try with Da Silva taking over, and could go all the way as the chalk. I’LL TAKE THE CAKE earned a career best 67 Beyer last time when a belated third under Contreras. BUCKDEN HOUSE filled out the tri in three of her last five outings. An awkward break and a wide trip led to her downfall against tougher in her latest. SILVER RING is halving in value.

FIFTH RACE

FLEETWAY led until the final stride last time in an optional claimer at Arlington, in his first try off a $20K claim. With the rail in the outermost lane 5, the steady 3yo could go coast-to-coast in this allgray starter allowance. SILVER SIDNEY is taking on the boys following a commendable second to Gamble’s Ghost in the Belle Mahone Stakes on the Tapeta. Her turf form is spotty, but a mile on the lawn seems ideal for her. The win-shy ARTHUR’S PASS is a must-use underneath in the exotics, in her first start off a $20K claim. Synthetic expert GRAY PHANTOM defeated the latter while winning the aforementioned key contest.

SIXTH RACE

OCTOBERFEST was bumped hard at the break in his two-turn opener before finishing a well-beaten fourth behind the upwardly-mobile Peppered, who’s the favorite in the G3 Grey. The half-brother to stakes winner Ultimate Destiny is sent out by a capable second-out trainer. AHEADBYACENTURY landed on the edges after a tardy start in each of his stakes excursions going short. This is his second race with Lasix, and the son of Midnight Lute is bred to run long. OROSCOPO has worked twice on the Tapeta since coming up empty in his debut on the Saratoga sod. COROT is a full-brother to the G1-winning turf miler Midnight Storm.

SEVENTH RACE

TRIPLE CHOCOLATE looks to be the main speed in this $20K NW2 turf route, and the daughter of Court Vision could go all the way under Rainford. GLIB MARYLIN worked extensively during her summer vacation, and didn’t run a bad one during the first half of the meet. MAXIMUM ENTROPY is another possibility, in her second start after an extended layoff.

EIGHTH RACE

PEPPERED blew away the opposition with an abrupt three-wide move on the far turn when moving out to a route in his second race Sept. 9, earning a fat 81 Beyer in the process. The son of Tapizar has since worked quickly on the training track, and should take some beating with money rider Contreras back in the saddle. PIVEN is stretching out off a narrow loss in a six-furlong stakes, with the pedigree of a router. His sire, Prospective, won this G3 fixture in 2011. ARCHAGGELOS is competing on short rest off a maiden victory on the Laurel lawn. Trainer Michael Dickinson, who invented the Tapeta surface, fared okay with 1-7 day comebackers in the past.

NINTH RACE

After getting away slowly, FIRST PREMIO rallied wide on his left lead to finish a close second in a recent six-furlong N1X. That was the European import’s first outing in about 10 months, and it should set him up nicely for this N1X route. AURORA WAY disappointed as the 7-10 favorite in an identical event Sept. 2, but he’s worked well since and could rebound as an underlay. LAPOCHKA beat out the latter for second then while putting up an 80 Beyer in his first start on synthetics. Use him underneath in vertical bets, along with CONQUEST CAVALRY.

TENTH RACE

SALIERI fought for the lead last time before fading to third in a grass sprint that contained three nextout winners. He could be less-aggressive and more effective here with blinkers off. ROBUSTIOUS is turning back to a suitable distance off a fading fourth going long, from which the runner-up exited to beat $32K maidens with a 67 Beyer. EXECUTIVE CRY is by the solid turf sire Victor’s Cry, who’s produced just 8% debut winners. Consider him for the bottom of all exotics, along with SILVER WINGS REVEN.