ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 1, PISTOL PACKIN ROSE

FIRST RACE

PISTOL PACKIN ROSE was tons best last out when third in a N1X vs. older, an effort that stamps her the most probable winner Sunday dropping into an allowance for 3yo fillies. ‘ROSE was banged around at the break, got revved up and pulled while unrelaxed, raced wide the first turn, wide the far turn and fivewide into the lane. Despite all that, she missed by only a neck. She moves from post 10 to post 2, and switches riders to Drayden Van Dyke. This turf route is a split of race 4; this is the weaker half. CYNTHIANA was compromised by the “race shape” three starts at Del Mar, finishing fourth, fifth and sixth. She is a late-runner, and all three of those races were dominated by speed. She faces a similarly challenging pace scenario because this race does not have much pace, but she might be better than her summer form suggests. ZUZANNA is a pro that won 4 of her last 7. The claiming-caliber filly fits. TINK’S TWIRL has a forwardly placed style that could play well in a race short on speed.

SECOND RACE

FORBIDDEN COMMAND finished more than three lengths clear of third last out in a similar $8k claiming route. Good effort by a six-win mare with a versatile style that should lead to cozy trip saving ground right behind the speed. She was reclaimed last out by Steve Miyadi. OPTIMISTIC OUTCOME has an opposite running style. She is a closer; her runner-up effort two weeks ago vs. similar at Los Alamitos was okay. It was her first start in nearly three months. She will be running late. PAPERCOVERSROCK defeated the top choice last out with a pressing trip. That was her first start at the bottom claiming level (unrestricted). At age 7, this level is where she belongs. I’M NO PATSY and HONOR MAKER both have speed; they will keep it honest up front.

THIRD RACE

Second-time starter THIRTEEN SQUARED and fastwork firster PATRICIA’S RING are the keys in this maiden sprint for 2yo fillies. The call is THIRTEEN SQUARED. She chased a fast pace and finished third in her debut, a race won by her stablemate Alluring Star, who entered the G1 Chandelier Stakes (race 7) on Saturday. With a prep under her belt, early speed, and a post outside her main rival, ‘SQUARED can win if she moves forward. PATRICIA’S RING has been working fast for her debut. She is a full sister to debut winner/G2 winner Onlyforyou and stakes winner Dress the Part. Fast works suggest ‘RING is ready to fire; the inside post is a potential challenge for a first-time starter. The last time Mike Smith rode a debut winner for trainer Carla Gaines was 2015 with Curlin’s Fox. Coincidentally, the dam of Curlin’s Fox is Foxysox, whose first-time starter SUSPICIOUS SPOUSE (by First Defence) makes her debut for trainer Peter Miller. SECRET SPICE is likely to improve second time out. Her fourth-place debut was only okay, but the past three years, trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Rafael Bejarano are 9-for-23 with second-start maidens.

FOURTH RACE

This N1X turf route is a split of race 1; this is the tougher half. TWEETING was claimed for $62.5k from a solid maiden win at Del Mar last out. She has tactical speed, she can finish, and new trainer Bill Spawr is super first start off the claim. The past three and a half years, Spawr is 5-for-7 “f.o.c.” when he teams with jockey Mike Smith. TONAHUTU ran super finishing second in her U.S. debut. The pace was slow, the winner led wire to wire, and TONAHATU unleashed a final five-sixteenths in a blazing :28.82 to miss by a nose. Big effort by the Irish-bred, who is likely to get a legit pace this time. Lightly raced LITERARY CRITIC wired maidens despite pulling hard setting a slow pace. That was just her second career start; the City Zip filly has upside. INSTANT REFLEX led virtually gate to wire in her debut, a turf sprint. From the outside post (10 of 10), she has no option but to go. Come catch her. HELEN HILLARY returns to her preferred footing (turf) and will roll late.

FIFTH RACE

FLIP THE COIN JAN finished more than five lengths clear of third last out in a maiden-50 from which he was claimed by Doug O’Neill. The colt earned a solid figure for this level (64 Beyer), and should be the deserving favorite returning vs. similar. IT’S A NEW YEAR chased and faded in his debut, a special-weight sprint won by Solomini, who was entered as a contender Saturday in the G1 FrontRunner (race 8). IT’S A NEW YEAR is bred to run long, and facing easier company in this maiden50. CRAFT BREW finished a distant third behind the top choice last out, but that was the first route and first in California for ‘BREW. With blinkers and a race under his belt, he should move up. DARE TO ENTER finished more than eight clear of third in his career debut, a maiden-30 route. The secondtime starter should improve, although he is wheeling back in just 10 days.

SIXTH RACE

Third last out after setting a strong pace in the second start of his career, RAVEN CREEK is the one to catch in this maiden race for Cal-bred 2yos. He went fast on the lead last time going five and a half at Del Mar, worked fast since over the Santa Anita surface, and if he breaks running from the inside post could be long gone. MY BOO finished in front of the top choice last out, rolling from more than seven off the pace in midstretch to miss by a nose. The longer distance of this six-furlong sprint benefits the son of Ghostzapper. GRINGO STAR finished an okay second in his career. He is another likely to improve with a race under his belt. POWERFUL THIRST has zero speed, but he does finish. Blinkers are on.

SEVENTH RACE

The unlucky ITSINTHEPOST could have defeated HUNT last time at Del Mar, while seventh-place finisher UP WITH THE BIRDS did not have a clear trip in the same race and could have made it close. Those three are contenders in this G2 turf at a mile and one-quarter. ITSINTHEPOST did not break all that well last time, and found himself stuck in behind horses. He steadied at the three-eighths, then finished fast late along the inside to miss by less than a length. With a different trip, he could have won. As for HUNT, he creates his own good trips because he has tactical speed and also can finish. He won a pair of G2s this summer at Del Mar, and remains in top form. No knocks on the stalker/presser. UP WITH THE BIRDS looms the knockout. His figures continue to creep upward; he had nowhere to go from midway on the turn until deep stretch last out, yet still finished with run and was only two and one-quarter lengths behind HUNT at the wire. Bombs away with ‘BIRDS? CHICAGO STYLE gets tested for class after winning 5 of 6.

EIGHTH RACE

The inside post is a challenge for ANONYMITY, but she must be considered the filly to beat based on an outstanding debut in which she pressed a fast pace and came away. The fifth- and sixth-place finishers returned to win at Los Alamitos. The knock on ANONYMITY is moving from post 7 to post 1. DOMINATING WOMAN crushed maidens by more than seven lengths in February, then went to the sidelines. Among those she beat were subsequent stakes winner Kenda. ‘WOMAN returns with a series of fast works at San Luis Rey Downs, and an affinity for this track and for firing fresh. JUST A LITTLE HOPE is a “must use” from off the pace. She tried two turns both recent starts, but might be better as a closing sprinter. The top two choices both have speed, that leaves JUST A LITTLE HOPE as an upset candidate rallying from off the pace.

NINTH RACE

ABBEY VALE is a question nd mark. He was eased as the favorite last time, claimed for $40k and shows up for $25k. Not a positive pattern. But he prefers the Santa Anita turf over Del Mar, he can stay this mile and one-eighth distance, and should improve for new trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. RYE PATCH won at this level last out; his up-front style should play well in a long race that could unfold at a modest tempo. Not sure if this is his preferred distance, however. KRISTI’S COPILOT was wide most of the trip last time, and split the field. He drops from $32k to $25k.

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.