ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, DEEP SEA

FIRST RACE

WEALTH EFFECT didn’t make a real impact from off the pace in Saratoga debut, but she was racing on in the stretch in an effort it appears that she can build upon for top connections; slight class drop doesn’t hurt. MATTY’S MAGNUM has landed in a pair of tough MSW races to start, and she encountered early trouble in that first one behind Miss Grillo winner Significant Form; can certainly use this class relief to her advantage, as well, though her lack of early speed is a bit of a concern. SOLDIERS PRIDE didn’t encounter any trouble but failed to make a serious run in MSW race that featured a solid pace, before fading in the stretch to finish behind MATTY’S MAGNUM; can improve with that one behind her as she adds Lasix.

SECOND RACE

PENCE got into contention in the stretch of his debut before flattening out, as many firsters from this barn tend to do, and he didn’t run any worse in his second start while taking a run at the eventual winner on the lead and then weakening going longer; turns back in weak-looking field. FROST PROOF didn’t do much behind a front-running winner in his turf debut, but he improved to close into 3rd late when cut back to sprint on grass last time; shorter price this time, but he should be. DOOLEY has yet to make a serious run to contention on any one of his three turf starts to date; cut back to sprint may help.

THIRD RACE

SPLASH OF SASS back to her preferred dirt after failing to fire on grass for the fifth time in her career most recently; good effort to close down a modest pace over this track in early July, and she came right back to to take a game three-wide run to challenge before settling for 3rd in her last dirt start. MILAYA has been descending the ladder while losing her good form from early in her career; has made just one dirt start since claimed by sharp trainer, but was no match for SPLASH OF SASS that day. HOLD ON MOMMA was favored off the Gullo claim vs. similar last time, but she didn’t have enough in that spot while outfinished late by longshot Causeways Cutie; tries again.

FOURTH RACE

COURTMEWITHCARATS hasn’t improved in pair of starts off the claim for current connections, but she was contesting the pace with a better horse in Nisha (3-for-4 on dirt) last time, was up in class against tougher in her first start for these connections, and was contesting a pace that collapsed three starts back; should be sending from the start with blinkers on. CLAIRVOYANT LADY was no match for the top one three starts back, and has since faded down the stretch along with that rival in pair of starts vs. better horses; drops a bit looking for first win for these connections. SHESMYHEARTANDSOUL light on figures, but she has speed and her four wins in 2017 are just one shy of the total of all of her rivals combined this year; likes to go, but COURTMEWITHCARATS has speed right alongside.

FIFTH RACE

BELLE OF THE SPA looked good in first three turf starts over this course, including impressive win when able to track off a solid pace prior to heading upstate; weakened behind a few of these in that last one, but she was always up close to a pace that ultimately gave way, and she may own the best speed this time. STYLE DRIFT the one many will go to out of that September 4th affair for this level, and can’t argue with anyone taking that position as she encountered trouble at a couple of different points in the running that day; expect her to be tough third off the layoff, but also expect her to be overbet. LADY JOAN has no excuses in that last one after coming wide to take over the lead, only to be closed down late by the last move, but that was another solid effort for 3yo filly who has made no mistakes so far.

SIXTH RACE

TAYLER’S THE BOSS got bet strongly for her debut,

and while she tired in the stretch to finish off the board, she did not exactly have the easiest trip for a firster while chasing wide every step, and she didn’t have to love that wet track, either; one more chance as she draws to the outside once again.

MISS HOT STONES a full to Stretch’s Stone, who won two of his first three starts (winning Beyers of 84 and 85) before getting a shot in the Wood Memorial; trainer sent out a debut winner for this owner earlier in the meet, that one off series of similar Laurel works. MISSIMPAZI was part of that contested pace that left TAYLER’S THE BOSS chasing first time out, and she survived to get clear in the stretch before getting run over late by a closing winner; blinkers and Lasix going on for second start. TURN AND BERN a sister to three stakes winners from her dam, and she has been training right along over the past couple of months, while THE GIANT’S VOW is the first foal out of her dam, who is a sister to the very good dirt router Giant Moon, and the very good dirt sprinter Moonlight Song.

SEVENTH RACE

DEEP SEA will have to return to form in order to win this, but he has the back races to get to, and he has more speed than he managed to show in that last one; tough go when chasing wide in his prior start, and claiming from his prior connections, who wildly underachieve with dirt horses, has been a solid move overall (past five years, first after claimed from Casse, dirt: 10 wins and 8 2nds from 36 starters, 28% wins, 50% in the exacta, $2.77 ROI). BLAZE’N PROSPECTOR another with the back races to be tough here, and looking to return to form off the Rudy claim; think the two months since that last start, which was also off a short break, can benefit this horse. DELTA OUTLAW was plunged in class for his first start off a long layoff, but he looked good doing what he was supposed to do in that spot; not a bad claim for horse who looked no worse for wear off a break surpassing a full year, and his speed may be effective in this race.

EIGHTH RACE

BLIND AMBITION a 3yo facing some very hardhitting older horses here, but he has looked good since switching over to turf, and like him turning back for this after appearing to fail to see out the mile last time; will take his upside over horses like UNDRAFTED and TAKE COVER who, while both capable of a race that would give BLIND AMBITION no real chance, haven’t exactly been running to their best recently. UNDRAFTED did rebound to a better effort last time, but he needs appears to need a big pace to be effective these days. TAKE COVER got off to a promising start as a turf sprinter, but he hasn’t performed up to his best over the past year or so, and is looking to start over here after making only three starts so far this year, all of them in stakes company.

NINTH RACE

KIERLAND felt unlucky when falling just short at this level three starts back, and while he hasn’t managed to improve in his two starts since he still ran pretty well, and he didn’t get the greatest trip in the world last time when winding up wide around the second-turn, and wider still to the stretch. SET ME UP was up against it while trying to close into a moderate pace after a slow start in his first start back this year, and while he did improve last time, he came away from that 3rd place finish without excuse and was outfinished for 2nd by MR. MASSENA, who stumbled badly at the start; tries again. MR. MASSENA recovered after going to his nose at the start last time and gamely prevailed for 2nd while no threat to the winner; clearly better on turf.