ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 2, BAMA BOUND

FIRST RACE

GRUBERED was a game winner against nonwinners of two in that last one and that effort — and Beyer — makes him a big threat despite the rise; he was on the lead there but he can also rate if need be, and that versatility should enable him to work out a trip regardless of race flow. R CAT DADDY suffered two narrow losses in his last two with late rallies, but he can be expected to be closer to the pace today, as he does have a little early zip; certainly fits on his figures. JACK OF DIAMONDS has won two straight, both in game fashion; lack of a clear rating ability makes it clear that he’ll be gunning for the lead from his inside post

SECOND RACE

BAMA BOUND wasn’t close in his last pair, against better, but his races at this level certainly make him very tough in this spot; inside post and tactical speed should give Santana some options. CHOVANES adds blinkers after a near miss in his latest, and the new barn, which wins with all types, is especially tough with blinkers added; will be looking to take them wire to wire. TEMPIETTO closed with gusto for the show two back in a race which set up well for the speeds; also rallied well in his latest.

THIRD RACE

WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT makes her debut in a seemingly soft spot, and she does have a couple of works that hint at some ability; pedigree offers few clues — the dam was unraced and her lone starter won once in 20 starts — but the board will provide more. LITTLE FLORENTINA flashed speed in her bow, against better, and she has room to improve in her 2nd start, after she caught slop in that first start. FLYING TO STAR has posted the best figure of her career on the turf last time but the barn’s solid record (47%) with horses moving from turf to dirt make her a threat by default.

FOURTH RACE

LUCKY KITTEN has some of the best Beyers in the field and his last effort, where he closed for the place, was solid enough, even if it came with the aid of a quick early pace; dangerous if ready off the short layoff. BINGO BANGO BONGO is down in class after he was outrun in his return, and he clearly fits on his efforts in his prior tries when in for a tag; stone closer needs pace but he should get at least honest fractions. MODERN TALE hasn’t raced this cheaply since February, and though he was off the board last time he had a great deal of trouble; likely short price the lone knock.

FIFTH RACE

MELODY POMEROY may have needed that last one, as she didn’t run to her best efforts when she was unable to make the lead, and she has license to move forward in her 2nd start off the break; figures to be more prominent from the start. COWTOWN SPIRIT got loose and scored in her latest, and she looms the main speed in this abbreviated sprint, too; obvious appeal. SMOKE N THE BOTTLE has been since July but the barn has a couple of wins with horses off this type of layoff, a stat that’s good enough to make her a threat at a square price.

SIXTH RACE

CALLING DISCO ran a big race in his turf debut, missing by just a half-length after stalking the pace in a race which set up well for the stone closers; he’ll be very tough if he’s able to run to that 79 Beyer in this spot. BLINGS EXPRESS has been 2nd in two of his five starts on the turf thus far, including his most recent; that was a solid effort, as he was involved in a duel through some fast splits, and that effort puts him on the short list of contenders. HOLD ON SMOKEY is in for a tag for the first time in over a year; a 16-time winner as a turf sprinter, he’s always a threat in the lane, even at the age of 12.

SEVENTH RACE

PILOTING was in against stakes company in three of his last four starts on the main track, and his best figures are solid; he’s at his best when on the lead but with speed to his outside he may be forced to try to rate and make one run. MAL GUAPO took advantage of a favorable race flow to score on the lead in his latest; that cozy set-up helped him earn his best Beyer of the year, and while he is not

likely to run back to that figure today he has to be respected. GRAY BEAU didn’t get the best of the race flow when behind MAL GUAPO last time but he figures to be well spotted behind a contested pace this afternoon.

EIGHTH RACE

GET A MOVE ON IT is the first starter out of an unraced dam but this gelding has a couple of decent works showing for his bow, and he debuts with Lasix; expecting him to come out running for trainer Larry Pilotti. CAPE MARCO DRIVE is another firster lacking pedigree power but boasting other attributes, including the barn’s record with debuting maiden claimers (22%, $2.76 ROI); also has a couple of decent breezes. GALLEGUIN is by a dam who won her own debut, and went on to place in stakes races; her lone starter to date, Songatmidnight, won her own first start on the turf.