ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 3, EMPIRE RULER

FIRST RACE

Little Red Feather Racing and trainer Phil D’Amato hold the aces in this turf route, with stablemates IT’S THE ICE and BILLY BIG . Either can win. IT’S THE ICE drops for the first time into the claiming ranks after decent efforts against allowance company. ‘ICE has more “speed” than his stablemate, and will get first run. BILLY BIG is a deep closer that has finished fairly close to better company. He drops to $25k claiming non-winners of two, and will fly late. The course played fair opening week, but the turf rails were at zero and 10 feet. The rails are moved to the outermost 30-foot setting this card. CLEANUP HITTER stretches out and moves back to turf after a midpack finish in a dirt sprint. KNIGHT’S DREAM drops in class with an upset chance for the meet’s leading trainer Mick Ruis, who went 4-for-7 opening week.

SECOND RACE

NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY trounced maiden-32s by more than seven lengths one month ago at Del Mar. That big-fig win (72 Beyer) stamps the colt as the one to beat in this starter allowance/optional claiming sprint. ‘BULLY won at six furlongs; he is the only starter in this field of 2yos that has won at the trip. Logical choice to win right back. PSYCHO DAR won his debut in sharp style, drawing away with a good number (71) over a field that included two next-out winners. ‘DAR is trained by Steve Miyadi, who also entered comeback colt GET EM UP SCOUT. The latter was overmatched last out in a stakes for Cal-breds; his maiden-40 win two back puts him in the hunt. UTAH UTE has been freshened two months; he drops in for the optional claiming tag.

THIRD RACE

The pick six begins with a traditional carryover ($80,091) and a potential single in the first leg. EMPIRE RULER drops to the maiden-20 bottom for the first time in his career, with the top figures and a trainer whose maidens run to form. Ron Ellis has won with 5 of his last 10 favorites at the maiden20 level. EMPIRE RULER is “fastest” in the field on speed figures, and the most probable winner on the card. Although it can be a trap to back a maiden-claiming sprinter with no early speed, this race is six and a half furlongs. Plenty of stretch for ‘RULER to get there. Both races this distance opening week were won from behind. OREJAS was claimed last out from subpar effort, but it was his third start of the Del Mar meet and he might have been a tired horse. Freshened since late August, he should fire first start back and he has more speed than the top pick. SOONER BOOMER missed by a neck last out against similar. GATO DOLCE regressed at Del Mar, but his June-July form puts him in the hunt. He finished in the money 6 of 11 starts.

FOURTH RACE

Owner-breeder-trainer Bruce Headley has two “live” ones in this Cal-bred allowance sprint, with front-runner GIGANTIS and closer THE STREET FIGHTER. Close call between the two, but the early speed of GIGANTIS gives him the edge. He won three straight on this track in spring; he is drawn outside his pace rivals and figures for a good trip setting or pressing the pace in the clear. THE STREET FIGHTER returned from a layoff with a solid runner-up finish at Del Mar; the first- and third-place finishers came back to win. THE STREET FIGHTER will rally late; the 94 Beyer he earned last out could make him the favorite. Trainer Peter Miller and owner Gary Barber entered two worthy rivals for the top pair. GETOFFMYBACK and FLY TO MARS both have a look. GETOFFMYBACK is quick and likely to contest the pace; FLY TO MARS has shown speed in the past, and also runs well from behind.

FIFTH RACE

DEL MAR ANN returns from a two-month freshening to the downhill course on which she scored her most recent victory in May. Her fifth-place finish last out at one mile was actually okay. She missed by three lengths, the race produced two next-out winners. ‘ANN faced better company on the hill early this year; her top figures have been earned on this layout. NOT TOO SHINY also returns to the downhill course of her most recent win in May at this class level. She was in a couple tough spots this summer at Del Mar, and now drops to her winning level. The stretch-running 7yo mare will roll late. MACALLA is a “new” face, making her first start since January and first since changing trainers. Her only turf sprint was a six-length blowout on “yielding” at Golden Gate.

SIXTH RACE

Second-time starter CARRIE’S SUCCESS is poised to win this maiden race for Cal-bred 2yo fillies after a better-than looked runner-up debut. Sired by Successful Appeal, she was expected to show speed, but brushed the side of gate, was away slowly and finished evenly. She has two easy works since, adds blinkers and is likely to improve significantly second out. BELLA STYLE broke slowly in her debut, rushed to midpack and then faded. Similar to the top choice, ‘STYLE could show more speed with a clean takeoff. SMILING TIGRESS has not had the greatest of trips in her three-start career; she worked well at Santa Anita since returning from Del Mar. MY CLAW drops from a restricted stakes race and will roll from off the pace.

SEVENTH RACE

Lightly raced MR VARGAS, dominating maiden winner last out on dirt and proven on turf via his runner-up finish two back, is the one to catch in this first-level allowance on the hill. He set or pressed fast fractions both recent starts; if he can stay the six and a half furlongs he could be gone. Both turf sprints opening week were won by deep closers, but the course configuration changes this week with the rails at the outermost 30-foot setting. Although rail setting has nominal influence on course profile, it is a contrast to opening week. If the top choice does not carry his speed, then turf-to-sprint TRIFECTA could be along in time. This is the first turf sprint in his career; the closing miler has earned appropriate speed figures for this level and will roll late. The same applies to CHEEKABOOMBOOM, a downhill specialist with a win and a second two starts on the hill. He will rally, while ANATOLIAN HEAT has run well on the hill and stretches out following a big Del Mar turf win at five furlongs.

EIGHTH RACE

Runner-up both starts this summer against similar Cal-bred madiens-50, DECARCHY DAWN returns from a two and a half-month layoff as a first-time gelding while adding blinkers. The horse that beat him last out returned to win a starter allowance. REVEREND AL finished less than a length behind the top choice in his debut, then returned with a runner-up finish at Los Alamitos while more than five clear of third. DIVULGE rallied wide and finished third by a length in his debut; the class hike from maiden-20 to Cal-bred maiden-50 can be interpreted as a signal of optimism. He can improve second time out. 285 West Huntington Drive Arcadia, CA 91066 (626) 574-7223 Main track: One mile, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 990 feet. Turf course: About Seven Furlongs

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place, and show: 15.43 % ■ Two-horse exotic wagering: 22.68% ■ Trifecta, Superfecta, Super Hi 5, Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6: 23.68% ■ Pick 5: 14% ■ Daily Double: 20%

NOTE: A horse which wins a non-winners of $3,000 other than maiden or claiming, or two races, for Calbreds, shall remain eligible for that comparable open allowance race, provided that horse did not win a race other than claiming following that Cal-Bred win. Once a horse has won the two first condition allowance races (Cal-Bred and open), then the Cal Bred win will be disregarded in future allowance races for eligibility purposes only.