ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 6, A DIXIE TWISTER

FIRST RACE

Opener a race to be at least a little leary of the known commodities, none of whom are all that appealing. Will instead take a shot with firster COUNTESSOFPOTENZA, who is a half to two turf winners from this dam (unraced), who is herself a sister to the very good turf horse My Princess Jess; trainer has had few opportunities with firsttime starters thus far, but he does a very good job overall. LOUISIANA LADY has had more chances than anyone else in the field, though only one of her 11 starts to this point has come in the maiden claiming ranks, and she was stuck wide throughout that race before giving way; has had some trips along the way, and benefits from dropping back down after giving futile chase to dueling leaders last time. MADAME AMBASSADOR hasn’t improved this year after a somewhat promising debut in her lone start as a 2yo, but at least she has a race that I like, and don’t mind her sprinting. GRANDPA’S ARIANNA had a nice trip in her career debut before failing to finish in that race, and she actually made a stretch lead after another perfect trip in her second start, only to once again fail to find enough when it counted; clean contender is probably better off sprinting for now.

SECOND RACE

FROSTY GAL went well in both dirt starts as a 2yo, including maiden win where she was kept along a dead rail for most of the trip; hasn’t managed to get much going so far this year, but she has been kept to tougher spots right along, and she was always chasing in her most recent start, which came in a race that didn’t feature much in the way of closing; last chance as she switches to Velazquez. FROSTIE ANNE a five-time winner exiting an easy win upstate, though she did get absolutely loose on the lead in that spot, for which she earned a new career top figure; speed plays and she has been holding form all year. NO HAYNE NO GAYNE hit the sidelines following a pair of disappointing runs in the spring, but she was an improving early season 3yo prior to those races for a top trainer; can factor if benefitting from the time off, and she is not slow early.

THIRD RACE

TRICKY ESCAPE cutting back in distance for this, but doing so while holding strong form, which she signaled while finishing an excellent 4th behind Grand Jete back in June, and she looked particularly good closing down a moderate pace in that Monmouth Grade 3 two starts back; may not find much pace in this short field, either. AZAELIA returned from a layoff in a similar spot last time, also against only four others, and she took a game run at that race after a good trip, only to come up short at the end; remains with some potential for Shug, and she may have needed that first one back. PRINCESS GIBRALTAR arrived with solid stakes form from overseas, and she raced on gamely from last in her stateside debut behind a horse in Puca who would fit well in this field; threat to improve.

FOURTH RACE

KHALEESI KAT was outfinished late when dropped in for this claiming tag in her most recent start upstate, but only after she took the worst of things there while stuck wide throughout the running, before trying to make a bit of a premature run around the field; new trainer 7 for her last 17 off the claim on turf (41%, $4.34 ROI). FLATTERMEFABULOUS was a dominant winner when dropped in for a tag for the first time in her career at Saratoga, and she owns most of the fast races in this field, though she is a bit of a need-the-lead type, with all three career wins coming in races where she went unchallenged on the front end; back down in class and projects to be able to make the front. FREE N CLEAR dropping in class from a nice inside post after getting too aggressive early in each of her last two starts, and bolting while still in contention in that last one over yielding ground; 0-7 so far this year, but she has excuses for the last two, and she was in some pretty tough spots early on in the season.

NORTHERN GREY returning from a long layoff here, but doing so in the right kind of spot as a new gelding, and he endured a tough wide trip in his career debut sprinting, and then returning to take pressure on the lead before gamely prevailing second time out; faced a very strong field for the level in that last race, with winner Sorry Erik recently finishing 4th in the Grade 3 Ohio Derby with a 94 Beyer, and runnerup Vibe having posted three wins since that race. MONEY LAUNDERING flashed good speed from the start and was clearly best while wiring a field of maidens in his return to dirt last time; logically spotted right back and he should be going once again from rail draw. BORSA VENTO disappointed on a class drop early in the Saratoga meet, but he came back to prevail in his next start with an improved effort, before chasing wide to no avail most recently; claimed again.

SIXTH RACE

A DIXIE TWISTER had a bit of a trip when dropped in class at Saratoga two starts back, and she improved off the claim after a little time off to gamely close down two-life claimers once she got clear in the stretch; facing several class-droppers in this spot, but she can go with them if showing up with something similar to that last one. STARTWITHSILVER hasn’t panned out following a smart beginning to her career, and this class drop only makes sense for filly who is struggling to get through her NY-bred allowance conditions; too good for these with her best race, which has been eluding her all year. BUFFALO MISS gave way readily after making the pace vs. tougher last time; drops with speed.

SEVENTH RACE

DWIZARD made a promising debut when putting in a wide run through the turn after a slow start, and he was probably second-best to a talented stablemate of his in that spot; improved his figure in his second start, where he disappointed as the favorite, but he was stuck contesting the pace along the rail in that race, before weakening late; one more chance. SIDE TRACKS did have the benefit of racing along a strong inside for most of the race first time out, but he also had some trouble getting clear to run in that race, and he eventually had the follow the winner through between horses late in a game run; threat to improve quickly for a top trainer, and won’t hold the turf try off the layoff against him. VALIANT MAN was bothered and shut off at the start of his career debut early in the year, which left him outrun early with no chance to impact as front-running winner, but he still put in a game run for second-best; tough spot second time out vs. the talented Long Haul Bay.

EIGHTH RACE

CONQUEST TIZFIRE facing a tall order in her second start following a long layoff as she must stretch out and switch to turf, but this race did not come up nearly as tough as it could have for this level, and her speed may play in this spot; looked good winning that first start back considering the extent of the layoff, and there is no shortage of distance in her pedigree. BAREEQA arrived with good form from Florida in the spring, and she has continued in that vein while winning four of six since landing back in Gargan’s barn; came with her typical strong late kick to close that race down last time. BRIGHT SIDE UP has mostly been kept to the claiming and starter ranks, but she did pretty well at a big price at this level two starts back, and her race prior to that one was a strong effort while close to a strong pace; gave way readily from up on the lead last time, but that was a much stronger field for the level.

NINTH RACE

SAND CITY fairly bombed after contesting the early pace as the favorite last time, but that race was likely stronger for the level, and the 71 Beyer she earned two starts back would make her very tough here; not easy to trust, but she is supposed to be tough here. ALLEY OOP has done very little running in her three starts so far, though in her defense she did race very greenly first time out, and she has faced much better horses in her two dirt starts; won’t require much improvement as she starts back from a layoff while getting huge class relief. PARTY SPOT did her best with the early lead in her career debut, but couldn’t hold on late, and she made that inside trip work out last time before failing to find enough when it mattered; don’t mind the new face in a race like this, but she will have to do better in her NY debut.