ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, HEAVENLY LOVE

FIRST RACE

The Keeneland fall meet kicks off with maiden 2-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles in the opener... giving a slight edge to stretch-out sprinter MORE MOJO, who ran third and fifth in two races at Saratoga while largely drawing positive clocker reviews from the DRF crew. GIO GAME ran even better at Saratoga with a pair of seconds, with one of those coming by disqualification when she was beaten three lengths by next-out Miss Grillo winner Significant Form. The latter race came on turf, and now she goes on dirt; grassy pedigree but promising dirt works and a nice race in an off-the-turf contest in her debut. ABSOLUTE LOVE finished sixth of 12 in a well-rated sprint at Churchill last month despite backstretch difficulties and figures to improve in her second start.

SECOND RACE

YOUR SECRET’S SAFE joins a winning claiming barn after a series of competitive efforts in fast races in New York and looks poised to pick up her first victory in this maiden $30,000 claimer. DIAMOND DELIGHT was too keen when fresh in a Sept. 15 comeback at Churchill for this tag, and weakened to second after dueling for the lead; eligible to improve second off the layoff, and perhaps will settle better with a recent start behind her. Closer MALIBU AT MIDNIGHT was just a head behind DIAMOND DELIGHT for the place last out, hanging a little late to settle for third; got a dream off-the-pace setup and seemingly has less room to move forward than second-off-theshelf DIAMOND DELIGHT.

THIRD RACE

BURGAMEISTER is an allowance dropper for a 17-percent barn that picks up Jose Ortiz for the third start of his current form cycle; won the only other time he raced for a price, taking a maiden $75,000 claimer at Churchill in May; razor-thin edge in a head-scratching race. SIR DOUGLAS was freshened after a couple dull performances at Ellis Park in starter $50,000 N1X races this summer, but had previously run competitively in claiming races earlier in the year; factor with a return to form. COLONEL DAN was somewhat disappointing as the favorite when returning after a short break in a $30,000 N2L claimer like this one Sept. 15, only passing tired horses late to be third; perhaps better forthcoming with a stretch out to seven furlongs.

FOURTH RACE

In a deep $10,000 claiming field in which many of the competitors have form defects, taking a price with 6-1 shot ANNOY. Although a dismal eighth in her latest, that did come on turf, a surface on which she is just 1 for 14. By comparison, she is 9 for 26 on dirt; has raced mostly at smaller tracks, but is a past winner over the Keeneland strip, taking a $20,000 claimer here in the spring of 2016; should sit a good trip stalking a hot pace. DUSTEM CAROLINA is cut in half from $20,000 to $10,00 after a close fifth in a six-horse field at Churchill, and now makes her third start off a short freshening; more prone to minor awards than victories, as reflected by her going 20-2-6-5 in 2016-2017. ENCHANTED FACTS was razor sharp at Penn National in the spring, but has not transferred that form in three subsequent starts outside that track - though in tougher races than this one; one of numerous speed horses in the field.

FIFTH RACE

SAPPHIRE JUBILEE finished behind MAGICAL SKY when they last met at Kentucky Downs, running third, three-quarters of a length behind the latter, the runner-up. Given that ‘JUBILEE was making the second start of her career, she may have more room for development. MAGICAL SKY likely goes favored after hitting the board in three of four races; much more prominent early last out when equipped with blinkers for the first time.

ANOTHER TEQUILASHOT rallied to grab second in a fast-paced race at Churchill last month but against what seemed an ordinary maiden field; fourth in two prior maiden starts, as well as 11th when ambitiously spotted in the Grade 3 Regret.

SIXTH RACE

Went value searching in this contentious thirdlevel allowance and settled on comebacker ALWAYS ON MY MIND, who went to the sidelines after essentially getting eased in stakes company over the winter at Aqueduct; encouraged by the steady, sharp worktab leading up to her return, and considerable faith in her trainer, Brad Cox, who is winning at a 26-percent clip on the year; dangerous despite a layoff going back to January. KINSLEY KISSES is returned to her preferred surface on dirt after fading in a turf route at Saratoga; 3 for 3 on dirt when racing in maiden and allowance races, not stakes. MOIETY freaked in a second-level allowance over this track last fall, and may have an affinity for the surface; still, hard to entirely forgive that she has lost this year at Tampa and Presque Isle.

SEVENTH RACE

Former maiden $50,000 claimer UNITED STAND has run first or second in all four of his dirt starts, including when the runner-up, beaten a head, at Kentucky Downs Sept. 9; form from that race was validated when the third-place finisher, Bird’s Eye View, returned to finish second in a Belmont allowance. SURPRISE TWIST and HOLIDAY BONUS are others with sharp recent form. The former has run third in two allowance races at Saratoga since breaking his maiden at Laurel, while the latter is dropped in class after a close fourth in the Dueling Grounds Derby at Kentucky Downs Sept. 10. Although HOLIDAY BONUS finished ahead of SURPRISE TWIST when they last met Aug. 26 at Saratoga, bear in mind that HOLIDAY BONUS is in the midst of a 10-race losing streak and seems minor-award prone.

EIGHTH RACE

THREEFIVEINDIA has taken some time to round into form this year, but now appears back at his peak after winning an allowance at Saratoga; showed his sprint class last year with graded stakes placings in the Gallant Bob and Bold Ruler; value pick at his 6-1 morning line. LIMOUSINE LIBERAL rattled off three straight stakes victories at Churchill before a somewhat flat third this summer at Saratoga in a Grade 1; has an affinity for the track surface at Keeneland, where he is based, and is a deserving favorite. WHITMORE looked like one of the elite sprinters this year Oaklawn, but hasn’t been as sharp lately; he tried to get out when third in the Grade 2 True North in June at Belmont and then was a lackluster third in a four-horse DeFrancis Dash; maybe this millionaire needed the DeFrancis race after being away for the summer.

NINTH RACE

HEAVENLY LOVE caught the eye in breaking her maiden at Kentucky Downs on grass, passing seven horses from the quarter pole to a eighth pole, and then cruising home by five lengths with her ears pricked. Rather than bring her back on turf, her connections are aggressively swinging for the fences in this Grade 1; plenty of dirt blood, plus a useful third first out on the main track at Gulfstream, suggests she can handle the Keeneland main track. PRINCESS WARRIOR earned the highest Beyer in the field, an 86, in winning first out at Churchill in a fast maiden race going six furlongs; finished in 23 seconds and change but is returning quickly and is the least experienced entrant. BET SHE WINS dominated in the Arlington Washington Futurity when shipped from turf to Polytrack; sharp local breeze Sept. 30, though she has long been a fast work horse; the move to race on dirt is the great unknown.

TENTH RACE

Stakes dropper ST. LOUIE looms a standout in the nightcap after at third in the John’s Call and a second in the Grade 3 Kentucky Turf Cup 4201 Versailles Rd. Lexington, KY 40592 Phone: (859) 254-3412 Main track: One and one-sixteenth miles, oval. Turf course: Seven and one-half furlongs, oval. Distance from last turn to finish line: 1,174 feet.

TAKEOUT INFORMATION ■ Win, place and show: 17.5% ■ All other wagers: 22% against quality turf marathoners; now moved into an allowance for a barn that excels with longdistance grass horses. HIGHLY PRIZED seemed to take a step forward when stretched out to this 1 1/2-mile distance when fourth in the Laurel Turf Cup, running a career-best 89 Beyer; had previously won just a $40,000 claimer at Arlington. NEOCLASSIC finished a close third in a starter allowance at Kentucky Downs Sept. 10 that was on par with a minor stake; accustomed to racing shorter, but plenty of staying blood in his pedigree and did win at 1 1/4 miles in September 2016.