Conqest Panthera can win on late kick

NEW YORK – This is the last weekend of major Breeders’ Cup prep races, with Grade 1 events at Keeneland, Belmont, and Santa Anita. Three of Keeneland’s five stakes Saturday are Grade 1’s: the $1 million Shadwell Turf Mile, the $500,000 Breeders’ Futurity, and the $400,000 First Lady. Belmont has two Grade 1 events – the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the $500,000 Champagne – as well as two other stakes. And the headliner in Arcadia is the Grade 1, $300,000 Santa Anita Sprint Championship.

Woodford Stakes

With Bigger Picture and Da Big Hoss being just two noteworthy examples, trainer Mike Maker has had success in recent years winning rich graded turf stakes with horses acquired through the claim box. So it was only a continuation of a strong trend when, in his first start off an $80,000 Maker claim – and, by the way, off a narrow loss at odds-on – Hogy won the Grade 3 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint most recently, and the front end of a $400,000 pot. Hogy was a solid turf sprinter before joining the Maker team, but he is likely to be tougher than ever for his new connections in this supporting feature at Keeneland, a race in which this 8-year-old came from downtown to narrowly miss last year.

Yet as formidable as Hogy figures to be, I like Conquest Panthera.

Truth be told, no one knows if Conquest Panthera is a true turf sprinter because he has never raced as short as the 5 1/2 furlongs he must go in this spot. But Conquest Panthera is much improved this year, he gets enough pace here to set up his late kick, and I believe he can capitalize on what is a significant class drop.

Conquest Panthera was in deep most recently against the streaking World Approval in the Woodbine Mile, but he at least remained competitive to deep stretch before tiring. But his winning effort in the Play the King Stakes two starts back is good enough to win this, even if it was at seven furlongs. Conquest Panthera was especially good that day when you consider he overcame a significant tactical disadvantage to catch Dowse’s Beach, who was in raging form and who was loose early and in total control of the pace. And earlier this year, Conquest Panthera was beaten only a neck for it all when third in the Grade 1 Maker’s 46 Mile, notably in his first and only start on the Keeneland turf course.

Champagne Stakes

I doubt anyone could have anticipated the performance Honorable Treasure delivered in his maiden victory at Saratoga in his last start. In his first attempt on dirt after a mediocre fifth going long on turf in his debut, and in his first start with Lasix, Honorable Treasure spread-eagled his field, scoring by more than six lengths, and earning an excellent 90 Beyer Figure. Moreover, Honorable Treasure’s powerful effort was validated when runner-up Ezmosh came back to win his next start with an 86 Beyer, a performance that makes him a win threat in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.

If Honorable Treasure duplicates his last start, the rest of this field will be in trouble. Still, I’m going with maiden Southern California shipper Bahamian.

Even if he is a maiden, Bahamian showed dramatic improvement in his second and most recent outing, a fine second-place finish at Del Mar to Solomini, a first-time starter out of the Bob Baffert barn who was bet down to even-money. Bahamian was beaten less than two lengths by Solomini, and his effort looks substantially better after Solomini came back to finish second in last week’s Grade 1 FrontRunner. Okay, Solomini was beaten a long way in the FrontRunner by the freakish Bolt d’Oro. But even so, Solomini still ran relatively fast to gain the place. Moreover, it’s my feeling the Southern California 2-year-olds are as a group slightly more advanced than their New York counterparts.

First Lady Stakes

There may be only seven in this race, but quality runs deep. Dickinson (winner of the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley last spring over the course), Hawksmoor, and Dona Bruja are fine mares, but Roca Rojo is my play.

Roca Rojo was severely compromised by a slow pace last time out in Lady Eli’s Ballston Spa, but still finished strongly to just miss catching Dickinson for the place, and gets a much more favorable pace setup Saturday.