ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 11, CLUTCH CARGO

FIRST RACE

BRATTATA appears to be in a good spot to break through here following a very nice debut run where she came wide and finished gamely after a sharp winner in a race that came back fast (84 Beyer for Chipolina); looks tough at a short price, unless one of the firsters can run. BURAK the most interesting of the first time starters as a $100k daughter of Street Cry from the family of City Zip and Ghostzapper on the dam side; trainer does a very good job overall, and he can win first time out. LIL T N LORRAINE debuting for an excellent trainer of young horses (though she is just 2 for her last 20 debuting on turf); unraced dam is a sister to the very good dirt router Master Command, but there is plenty of turf in this female family as well, with the second dam being a sister to QEII winner La Gueriere as well as the Grade 3 turf winner Lost Soldier. Chad’s other horse, NIGHT TIME LADY is the first foal from Inspired, who was an excellent turf sprinter in her day, though she was of the 5-to-5.5 furlong variety.

SECOND RACE

HOOKUP was bumped at the start and then closed gamely in the stretch in his return from a long layoff upstate, eventually drifting over behind the leaders late while settling for 3rd in promising return; thought that was a good place to start for colt who impressed in his career debut last November, especially when taking the demanding distance into account, even though that race lent itself to closing (see Starship Zeus). COPPER TOWN was denied by a strongly bet fellow firsttime starter in early season career debut in Florida, but he impressed upon his return last month while dominating maidens over a one-turn mile with sharp speed; faces tougher, but would be no surprise to find him turning out to be pretty good. PATTERNRECOGNITION has been a bit unlucky while bumping into Coal Front, Takaful and Mr. Crow in his first three starts in this condition, following his solid debut win with a 94 Beyer; the top two look pretty good, but perhaps he has found a bit of an easier spot this time as he stretches out.

THIRD RACE

DISCO PARTNER was given the chance to stretch out that he deserved, and he even picked up a stakes win over a mile before proving to be no match for a much stronger field in that last one; top turf sprinter looks tough getting back to what he’s best at. READY FOR RYE is fine on turf or dirt (though he probably really wants a wet track), but would like to see him get a chance to put some races together on this surface for the time being; failed to make an impact in his return to turf last time, but he never really came clear in the stretch of that race, and he was not all in in the late stages; better than that. WE DEER YOU received a perfect trip and ride when flying through on the rail to dominate the Lucky Coin last time, but he really ran in that race, and he contains more upside still; may need to take another step forward in the face of DISCO PARTNER, and can’t count on another trip like that last one, but he’s pretty good.

FOURTH RACE

AMBASSADOR JIM was off slowly before finishing a clear 2nd-best in his career debut sprinting, and he improved last time while overtaking a fast pace in the stretch, only to be closed down late by a good-looking firster from Chad Brown’s barn who returned to finish 2nd in the Grade 3 Pilgrim; outfinished several of today’s rivals in that last one, and makes it tough on them right back. BORU debuting for Pletcher with lasix on, and while this isn’t exactly a strong move for the barn (Pletcher

past five years, 2yo first time starter, turf route: 17%, $1.45 ROI, and only 1-for-19 at Belmont in that sample), this colt is out of a dam who is a full sister to the excellent turf miler Data Link.

BLOCKADE finished a few lengths behind AMBASSADOR JIM while making his career debut in that last one, but he was racing on with some interest in the stretch after a good trip; be no surprise to find him improving enough here to make it much closer with that one. WITCH DOCTOR was also well behind AMBASSADOR JIM last month, but he has a nice pedigree for turf for a top trainer, and he will get blinkers for his third career start.

FIFTH RACE

CALIFORNIA SWING failed to make an impact when bumped up to this level last time, but he was taken too far back off of what was a slow pace in that race and thought he finished up gamely with no real chance to catch; outfinished Hembree and Patriot Drive with a perfect trip two starts back, though it’s not like those two rivals, who are both contenders here, had excuses in that race. CARIBBEAN dropped to win a race at Monmouth in July, then returned to fall just short of a front-running winner at Saratoga two starts back while making another game run through the stretch; steps up after powering from last-to-first to win here last time, but his typical race fits well. HEMBREE was also rated early before coming up short ahead of CALIFORNIA SWING in that last one, and he just missed in a photo with that rival two starts back; don’t care of the five 2nds on his card from first 8 turf starts, but he is likely to be around it again come crunch time.

SIXTH RACE

Not sure that I love the race that ST. AUGUSTINE debuted in earlier in the meet but did like the race he ran while always traveling well from off the pace, before coming around the outside and racing on gamely to the finish; seemed like a horse who may really benefit from having a race, and he adds lasix for this while getting a bit more distance to work with, which may be what he really wants. MONTAUK debuting over a distance that can be tough on 2yo first time starters, but will be no surprise to find him handling it based on strong line up of works for Pletcher, and fact that $850k purchase is out of a dam who was a very good horse who accounted for multiple graded stakes wins in her career. ALLURED earned a solid figure while settling for second-best in his Saratoga debut, and did so while chasing a fast rival on the lead from start to finish; must use as any natural improvement makes it tough on his rivals here. LABEQ and POWER OF ATTORNEY debut for trainer whose firsters can be tough to read, but they are both bred and have both been training right along into this. PERSONAL TIME debuts for trainer who lets them find their own way; likely to want more distance as a full to Derby winner Orb.

SEVENTH RACE

Lack of early speed a problem for HELOOKSTHEPART, but he wins enough despite his running style, and liked his effort in that last one when gathering momentum in the stretch to be closing ground too late; slight drop in class won’t hurt his chances. STORY TO TELL hasn’t quite been able to get back to his strong form from late last year since returning from a layoff; drops again after getting wired, and then outfinished for 2nd, by a couple of these horses last time. SCARLY CHARLY 0-12 since claimed out of a win last summer in the slop, and he hasn’t approached his best figures in that span, either; cuts in half for a very good trainer after failing to make an impact in a much tougher spot last time.

EIGHTH RACE

HONORABLE TREASURE got in a nice prep going long on turf first time out, and he could hardly have looked better while dominating a solid horse (Ezmosh returned to win with an 86 Beyer) right up on the pace in fast and impressive dirt debut second time out; distance should be no problem, and taking it as a good sign that McPeek left him here for one-turn Champagne when he could have brought him to his home base for the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. FULL OF RUN taking on a tough task while stretching out and stepping up into a Grade 1 for second career start, but that was an impressive run he put in to roll over maidens from off the pace first time out, and he was not working hard at any point to do it; won’t be easy, but put nothing past his trainer. ENTICED all upside after strong debut win where he appeared to resent the kickback early on, before leveling into a strong run to close down maidens with ease first time out; blue-blooded colt has been crossentered into the Breeders’ Futurity, which he can also win, so check the scratches to see where he winds up.

NINTH RACE

Hill Prince probably the last chance for TICONDEROGA, who has yet to really deliver on what has always appeared to be plenty of promise, while oftentimes proving to be his own worst enemy. Had no real excuse for no-show in the Belmont Derby when last seen, but he did have some excuses prior to that one, including troubled stretch run behind a slow pace two starts back, and he has at times appeared to be on par with any of these horses; like that Chad gave him a little time before running him back and love the series of half miles leading into his return. FROSTMOURNE could hardly have looked better than he did while dominating weaker in his last two starts; finally gets the chance to prove it against some of the better horses in this division after missing the bigger races through the summer following some unsatisfactory works. LUCULLAN heading the right way since switched over to turf, and he was impressive in that last one while overpowering a decent field with a big stretch run; likely to have to improve again in this spot. BRICKS AND MORTAR and YOSHIDA both logical after troubled trips in the Saranac last time; BRICKS AND MORTAR’s trip was the tougher of the two, and he certainly can have another chance.

TENTH RACE

KEEN ICE may not be the most reliable horse to take at a short price, but he has plenty going for him in JCGC that came up with a modest field; distance plats to his advantage, for sure, and he has actually run two of the better races of his career since returning from Dubai, including solid 2nd to Gun Runner in the Whitney. RALLY CRY may be the biggest danger, as he ran a race two starts back that would give even the best version of Keen Ice a hard time; no match for Gun Runner when bumped up to try the Woodward last time, but this isn’t nearly as tough, and he projects for a good trip in this race. GOOD SAMARITAN a 3yo stepping up, but one deserving of the chance following pair of strong runs on dirt upstate, including powerful last-to-first win in the Jim Dandy; blinkers on after getting himself way too far back in the Travers last time.

ELEVENTH RACE

CLUTCH CARGO landing in good spot here following a bit of a layoff after getting run out by a razorsharp Voodoo Song going longer early in the Saratoga meet; prior turf form is solid, including tough trip chance in his return from the layoff in April. RED KNIGHT the one to take going forward considering his first two career starts, and he projects to be tough in this race as well; main concern is the missed time since his solid maiden win, as he didn’t work for six weeks after. MINSKY MOMENT has been a disappointment on dirt, so switches over to grass for leading trainer; don’t love the Flatter’s on grass, but he has plenty of turf on the dam-side as a half to six-time turf winner Mobridge and threetime turf winner Mississippi Duel.