ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 7, DONA BRUJA

FIRST RACE

OUR GIRL ABBY, making already her seventh start, has an experience and class edge in this maiden $50,000 claimer after running competitively in a number of straight maiden races against far better; turned in one of her better efforts over this track when third to Happy Like a Fool in a swift race when debuting in the spring. BILOXI PRINCESS finished fifth of 12 in her only race when racing in a quick straight maiden race Sept. 16 at Churchill that was won by Princess Warrior, one of the favorites in Friday’s Alcibiades; improvement anticipated second out and a class drop. MIZZ TOSHIBA has worked quickly leading up to her debut for trainer Eddie Kenneally, whose first timers clip at a 17% rate despite regularly showing only half-mile drills.

SECOND RACE

Ka Ka Ka .... KATHBALLU has raced in nine consecutive stakes since winning a third-level allowance last fall over this track - taking three stakes along the way. Although beaten last out as the favorite at Charles Town, she was drawn poorly with a wide post on that bullring and may have needed the race after having most of the summer off. MAYLA was disqualified for interference in the Open Mind after Ivy Bell appeared to clip her heels in midstretch, with the latter losing her rider. It was still a good performance on her part; an honest sprinter who has had the misfortune of chasing such nice fillies as Finley’sluckycharm and Maryland standout Shimmering Aspen. ATHENA largely fits on class but has twice been unplaced in two starts over the Churchill strip and was somewhat flat in the Open Mind when beaten 3 1/4 lengths without trouble.

THIRD RACE

COVE BLUE was, as colleague Marty McGee likes to say, an “International Good Thing” when debuting at Churchill Sept. 17, getting backed to 8-5 favoritism following quick works that no one missed. The opinion here is the time to be such a runner is not when the public is all in first out, but second out if they go unplaced after some of the shine is off them. That is the case here with him coming off a distant fourth. RUBUS possesses tactical speed and has a third in a second from two starts; chased a promising colt in first-out winner Promises Fulfilled in losing by four lengths most recently. CONQUISTADOR sold for $2.45 million (gulp!) at auction earlier this year and has trained swiftly leading up to his first race, though starting from the fence is undesirable for a first timer. They tend to break slowly, and can end up eating dirt if they don’t have the speed to overcome it.

FOURTH RACE

SLOT chased some good ones at Saratoga for Pletcher when twice competitive in straight maiden races there. TIZ MISCHIEF ran an ordinary fourth first out but then stepped up his game by finishing second to Breeders’ Futurity entrant Ezmosh in a maiden race at Churchill Sept. 16 that was run in fast time; little separating him and SLOT. VICTORY LANE ran a close third in a Belmont maiden special weight in which he was beaten only a length, a mere nose away from second; related to a couple stakes winners in Donworth and Con Te Partiro.

FIFTH RACE

CONQUEST PANTHERA is dropped from Grade 1 company after finishing a wide but close seventh in the Woodbine Mile. Though he has not raced as short as 5 1/2 furlongs, he is an effective sprinter. He is unbeaten in four races from 6 to 7 1/2 furlongs, a mark that includes a win in the Grade 2 Play The King at Woodbine two races ago. HOGY proved a rewarding claim first out for his connections by winning the Grade 3 Kentucky Downs Turf Sprint; a 17-time winning veteran, he regularly throws Beyers in the mid 90s while occasionally

posting a 100 or more. CONQUEST PANTHERA just seems a little faster on figures if the latter can handle the cutback in distance. COMMEND was just a half length behind HOGY at Kentucky Downs after taking the lead in midstretch; first or second in 7 of 10 races on the grass, though not yet a stakes winner.

SIXTH RACE

FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM is one of the elite female sprinters in the country, a filly with a 8-for-10 record in sprints with her only losses being a couple of seconds in top-class graded company; proven fresh and lights-out drills since Sept. 1 following a summer physical hiccup. BENDABLE was farther off the pace than usual in the Rancho Bernardo at Del mar last out after bobbling at the start and did okay to rally for third behind Sky Diamonds, a standout performer in California; prior start this year was more impressive, a victory in the Grade 3 Desert Stormer, admittedly against a modest cast. 3-year-old filly VERTICAL OAK caught perfect conditions most recently on Sept. 3 for the Prioress when racing at Saratoga in the slop, a surface on which she now two-fortwo; fast-track form is good, though not as eye catching.

SEVENTH RACE

Multiple graded winner DONA BRUJA was a bit overeager in a slow-paced Beverly D, and lacked her usual late burst as a result, finishing in a deadheat for second; has the home track edge, having trained regularly at Keeneland since she arrived here from Argentina. ROCA ROJO was disadvantaged by a slow pace when third in the Grade 2 Ballston Spa behind Lady Eli and DICKINSON and did well to overcome difficulties to grab third, beaten 1 3/4 lengths; at her best distance of a mile. DICKINSON is the only filly to have beaten Lady Eli this year, defeating her on this course in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley in the spring, even after getting blocked in early stretch; three subsequent starts have resulted in a third, a fifth, and a second in high-quality races, with the runner-up finish coming most recently behind Lady Eli.

EIGHTH RACE

A dynamite renewal of the Breeders’ Futurity, offering quality and depth...taking a shot with 6-1 outsider EZMOSH, who after running behind Sporting Chance and Honorable Treasure in his first two starts, graduated with a two-length victory in a swift maiden race at Churchill for high-percentage trainer Brad Cox; well drawn in post two. FREE DROP BILLY and GIVEMEAMINIT were a head apart when second and third, respectively, in the Grade 1 Hopeful going seven furlongs at Saratoga. Both finished well and seem to want more ground. Sporting Chance, who beat them in the Hopeful, is not in this race, being sidelined due to injury.

NINTH RACE

HEART TO HEART has won 13 races and over $1.35 million, but never a Grade 1...perhaps that changes today in the Shadwell Turf Mile. He looms the controlling speed of the race, and he came within a neck of winning the Maker’s Mark Mile on this course in the sprint when having to rate. BALLAGH ROCKS is a threat at his 10-1 morning line after enjoying a productive summer in which he won the Grade 3 Poker and ran third behind World Approval and Time Test in the Grade 1 Fourstardave. Although off the board in two races on this course, he ran quite well here in the spring with a close fourth in the Maker’s Mark in which he was only beaten a half length. DIVISIDERO didn’t produce his ‘A’ race in either the Manhattan or Arlington Million, going unplaced in both starts. His better races over the years have come in Kentucky, particularly at Churchill on Derby Day.

TENTH RACE

CURLIN’S HONOR is a fast-working first timer by Curlin that sold for $1.5 million at auction earlier this year; related to a couple of minor stakes winners and catches opportune spot in which to debut. GRADE ONE showed a high level of speed first out but went much too quickly and caved in late to be third; likely can carry his speed farther if more relaxed. RIPE finished third at first asking at Ellis Park Aug. 19, and calls Keeneland home. He worked a bullet from the gate over this track prior to debuting at Ellis, and his works leading into this have also been solid.