ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, GALILEO’S SONG

FIRST RACE

KASBACH and NIGHT OWL pair on well-bred firsters for Chad Brown and not easy to separate them in opener that may be a good spot for any reasonably talented newcomer. KASBACH is the first foal from her dam, who was a group winner in Europe, and her second dam is a sister to the very good Coolmore filly Rumplestiltskin, who accounted for a couple of major Group 1s a few years back. NIGHT OWL by sire who has gotten off to a good start with his turf runners, and there is class in the female family with the dam being a sister to the multiple graded stakes winner India, as well as Pilfer, who is the dam of To Honor and Serve. RADIANT BEAUTY bred for turf and she improved in her debut on that surface last time when a solid 3rd to a pair of good-looking first-time starters sprinting; has to stretch out.

SECOND RACE

Tough spot for the four fillies who have been competing at this level recently with half the field dropping in to face claiming company for the first time. Of those, TISBURY has been facing the toughest competition while acquitting herself well; like her tactical speed, and don’t mind her going a bit shorter in this spot. FANCY KITTEN dropping right away after one start for Chad where she was no match for better horses; Gulfstream form is fine if not particularly strong, and do like her tactical speed, as well. ULTIMATE CAUSE getting the class drop for her third start of the year, and she will also be adding lasix for the first time; concerned that her two races on this circuit are her two worst by a long way, but she is a contender if she can bring her out of town form with her this time.

THIRD RACE

WILL DID IT has raced sparingly so far in 2017, and he has not yet returned to his solid form from the end of last year, which he found when finally concentrating on sprinting; game try off the claim last time after a bit of a steadying start. NO HIDING PLACE was on a significant class drop when wiring a field in the mud on closing weekend upstate, but he was disqualified from that win after bothering a rival in the stretch; right back in for the same tag off the claim. ROCKPORT KAT has so far not managed to bring his strong California form to NY, and it may not be the best sign in the world that he is cutting in half for his second start off the claim after being eased last time (though that race isn’t too bothersome as he was trying to go long in the slop); tough if he can just come close to his best race as he turns back.

FOURTH RACE

Loaded-looking maiden for 2yo fillies features few with experience, but several interesting firsttime starters. I’ll side with SOLITARY GEM, who doesn’t have one of the flashier pedigrees in the field, but debuts for a trainer who is quietly among the best on the grounds with 2yo first time starters (past five years, 2yo first time starter, dirt sprint: 7 for 24, 29%, $6.30 ROI); tough draw. LEZENDARY owns valuable experience for a top trainer, and she ran very well first time out while coming with a strong three-wide challenge through the turn, and only being outfinished late by the experienced Purrfect Miss (see the Frizette) and Mia d’Oro, who returned to finished a close 2nd in her next start with a 76 Beyer. BEYOND GRACE brought $1.5 million back in March following 10.1 breeze; more distance and turf in her pedigree, but strongly-built filly appears to be training forwardly. REDHAIRDON’TCARE brought a big sum back in April considering her pedigree, but 9.4 work did the trick; trainer tends to give them a race before striking second time out, but he can win with a firster. MISS ALIPHANT a half to a couple of winner from her stakes-winning dam, and she worked 10.2 in May prior to being purchased; was training forwardly through the summer before missing time, and just got back on the tab for trainer who is having a strong year with his 2yos.

FIFTH RACE

GALILEO’S SONG stretched out effectively last

summer prior to acquitting herself well in graded stakes company in her final two starts; got in what appeared to be a nice prep upstate when rallying gamely to fall just short of a winning and well-bet stablemate. EVIDENTLY scored a well-deserved Grade 3 win at the end of last year, but she hasn’t won since while mostly keeping better company; drops looking to get off the mark. CHICADORO has disappointed so far this year, but she’s only had three runs, and she did flash some potential upon arriving here at the end of last year; wonder if the bran change can wake her up at a price after showing nothing when shortened up at Monmouth when last seen.

SIXTH RACE

DOT MATRIX improved last year when finally allowed to use her speed, and while those tactics do not suit this race all that well with several speeds signed on, she has comfortably tracked the pace before, and her most recent race was quite good while making a strong wide run around the turn after completely missing the break. UNCLE SIGH a closer who is always looking for a pace to run into, and he projects to have that here, he just needs a scratch to get in; put in tight and had to steady on the turn and then had to move wide when finishing behind a few of these last time. BROKEN ENGAGEMENT a Scat Daddy gelding trying turf for the first time while dropping out of stakes company; bred for turn of the face of it, though all of the performance on the dam-side is on dirt, and while he posted both career wins in races scheduled for turf, it’s worth noting that he was entered MTO in both of those races.

SEVENTH RACE

SEPARATIONOFPOWERS gets one more chance in Grade 1 Frizette after getting hooked into a fast duel and tiring as a heavy favorite in the Spinaway last time; debut was too impressive to just give up on her, but she is likely to have to deal with some other speed once again on Sunday, and she’ll have to do it while stretching out again. CALEDONIA ROAD made her debut over a sloppy track upstate, but she looked good winning that race from just off the pace over a field that appears to be pretty solid, and she did it over 7/8ths; steps up. GO enters with just one start behind her, but thought she ran well in that spot despite settling for second-best behind a good-looking winner; clearly has to improve big-time in this race.

EIGHTH RACE

GRAND JETE unlucky not to be undefeated in this country heading into the Grade 1 Flower Bowl after tough trip 2nd in the Beverly D. where she was full of run in the stretch, but with nowhere to use it; suppose the 10 furlongs could be something to worry about, but she has looked very good since arriving, and seems up to the task. ZHUKOVA impressed when powering through the stretch to put the Grade 1 Man o’ War to bed here back in the spring, though worth pointing out that she caught the kind of soft turf course that she relishes that day and that she was also sitting right up on a Euro- pace in that race; still, she is going to be tough if she brings something like that back to the states after facing some tough company in her two starts back home. DACITA got the clear sailing in the stretch that GRAND JETE lacked when pulling off a mild upset in the Beverly D. but it’s not like that race came out of nowhere for mare who is now a dual Grade 1 winner; can easily win this, and she is likely to be overlooked in the wagering once again.

NINTH RACE

PANAMA PAPERS dropping in to face maiden claimers for the first time as she returns to NY for his first start since February and first for Pletcher; has held his own with some better horses along the way while continuing to come up short, so the class relief makes sense, and he owns fine tactical speed. ALPHA TEAM tried dirt off the layoff to no avail, now moves back to turf while also dropping in class; had a soft trip on an easy pace when last on turf, and was disappointing in that race while settling for 3rd. POLAR CITY did not run well when dropped to this level when last seen in early July, but his two races prior to that one were okay, and he can benefit from the freshening as he makes his first start for trainer who has been dangerous off the claim lately, especially with turf horses.