ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, TIGER MOTH

FIRST RACE

NORTHERN SCREAMER seems a standout in the opener, being a four-time winner on dirt this year and moving back to her preferred surface on the main track after running eighth in a starter allowance on turf at Kentucky Downs; also proven over wet conditions - if Sunday’s track is off. WILL GRACIE SHINE did nothing last out and lost by 25 lengths in a dismal effort, but is returned quickly for a winning barn and could very well wake up on the plunge from $25,000 to $10,000; 2 for 6 on wet dirt tracks. YOOOU DEN doesn’t seem as classy as the top two but comes off two straight blowout victories in conditioned claimers at Belterra.

SECOND RACE

STONETACULAR hasn’t raced since a troubled trip and 20-length drubbing in the July 15 Indiana Oaks, but shows a steady worktab leading up to her return; on the board in all of her other starts, and 2 for 2 on wet tracks, a record that includes a 4-length victory over eventual Grade 1 winner Elate at Churchill on Oaks Day. BEACH FLOWER streaks into this race off two consecutive victories at Canterbury, with one of those wins coming in a stake; another that is 2 for 2 on wet dirt tracks. TOASTED rallied to be second to graded placed Improv most recently at Churchill, but in a hot-paced race that aided her closing style; accustomed to racing a mile or shorter on dirt and now goes 1 1/16 miles.

THIRD RACE

HUNKA BURNING LOVE lands in a $50,000 claiming race for 3-year-olds after facing better for much of this year; shaky recent form, but excuses can be made for some of those failures (G3 company, Poly, troubled start); 5-1 shot can spring to life on the drop. ALL SHACKED UP goes from $40,000 to $50,000 off the claim, but he exits a race for 3-year-olds and up and now runs against straight 3-year-olds; fast, and Lanerie sticks, but a perfect trip winner of his latest when he made the lead with an easy opening quarter and half. THE MONEY MONSTER has raced in six straight stakes since a first-out maiden win last year at Gulfstream Park West, winning two stakes along the way; didn’t show up in a few starts, losing by 16 lengths or more in three races; given his inconsistency, no telling how he performs.

FOURTH RACE

LOVE ME LIKE YOU DO is attractive in this maiden $30,000 claimer after coming off a close third in a tightly packed maiden $75,000 claimer at Kentucky Downs; is an unknown on dirt, not having raced on it in four starts, but has dirt blood and an above-average 373 wet-track Tomlinson rating. ONE DOLLAR ran 10th in the same maiden $75,000 race in which the top choice was third, with this one surprisingly flashing speed after not having previously done so; perhaps was too fresh after being away since February; managed some minor awards in straight maiden races on dirt as a 2-year-old; trainer/jockey combo of McGee and Lanerie has hit at a 25% overall rate in 2016-2017. LIL MISS BLUE EYES was second or third in her first four starts before a seventh in her latest at Churchill June 18, and has been out of action since; well drawn and barn points for this meet, but just three published works, all at a half mile or shorter.

FIFTH RACE

MOM’S ON STRIKE regressed second off a layoff when fifth, though with some trouble, as the favorite at Belmont; had previously been second on the lawn at Saratoga and a runner-up in a stakes race in her final start of last year; a winner on dirt - if by chance inclement weather forces this race to the main track. AWESOME BOSS would likely benefit most from a switch in surface from turf to dirt, though her grass form is respectable; her lone win came on dirt at Oaklawn over the winter and she was a close second there in a race in the mud. TAMIT didn’t run to expec-

tations in a pair of races in New York this summer, but had shown promise earlier in her career on turf; broke her maiden at first asking on this course in October of last year over “good” ground. Draw a line through the last race in the past performances of ROCKET TIME. He was tried on the grass and didn’t run to his potential in a stake. This is strictly a dirt horse, and one that has been effective, winning 8 of 21 races on such tracks; also a winner in the slop at Churchill. RATED R SUPERSTAR is inconsistent but can run at a high level when he puts it all together, such as when he won the Grade 3 Carry Back at Gulfstream last year; blinkers, on for 10 straight races, come off, but must overcome a layoff going back to June 10 and shows just three published drills leading up to his return. GRAND CANDY was claimed for $62,500 by winning connections from a race at Kentucky Downs in which he was an even sixth over wet turf; blinkers on and now goes to dirt, where he is 6-2-2-0; a lofty 432 wet-track Tomlinson - something to consider if the track is off.

SEVENTH RACE

MIA MISCHIEF looks poised to break her maiden after a promising debut in which she sped to the lead and finished second, over 5 1/2 lengths clear of the third-place finisher; sold well at auction this year for $300,000. FONDA ROMANA ran fourth in the same Sept. 16 race in which the top choice was second, running evenly throughout; that marks two fourths from as many starts; quick works at Arlington this summer before a maintenance move here leading up to the race. 20-1 outsider SO REFINED was away poorly when seventh while running against the top two and others Sept. 16; quick works at Trackside, both before and since her debut.

EIGHTH RACE

CAPTIVATING MOON rallied to win first out on grass before a runner-up finish in the Arlington Washington Futurity going seven furlongs on the Polytrack; expecting him to relish the return to the grass and today’s added distance of 1 1/16 miles. TAP DADDY handled wet turf to blow away maidens at Kentucky Downs Sept. 14 despite racing erratically; gives the appearance of a highly talented colt. ADMIRALTY PIER ran a close third in the Grade 2 Summer Stakes at Woodbine Sept. 17 after a runaway firstout score; has to ship this time, however.

NINTH RACE

TIGER MOTH didn’t show her customary finish when third last out in a slow-paced Locust Grove at

SCRATCH BOARD

Here are the horses entered today who have been scratched in the last 45 days and have not raced since the scratch. Definitions: Off the turf: Turf race switched to main track. Trainer: Any scratch made by a trainer, including ones for weather, medical issues, a decision not to run in a stakes race, a horse entered back the next racing day, or a conditional entry (i.e., main track only for a turf race). Vet: Injury or illness. Steward: Administrative issues like medication and eligibility. Churchill over a surface where she has long struggled - though she still posted an 89 Beyer; expecting her to jump up at Keeneland, where she ran second earlier in her career; also has a win and a second in two starts on wet tracks. LOCKDOWN is returned quickly after a third in the Grade 1 Cotillion behind It Tiz Well and Abel Tasman; seems the most talented of these, but looks like she might have landed in here because the race was shaping up weak for a Grade 1, more so than it being a long-term goal of her connections. MARTINI GLASS is returned to dirt after coming up sixth in a challenging grass race; had been first or second in six prior races this year on dirt; one of those seconds was to a past-herprime Songbird in the Grade 1 Delaware Handicap.

TENTH RACE

REPROVE has twice run fourth in as many starts, and was only a couple photos away from being second in his latest on the grass at Churchill; like that he is capable on both turf and dirt, a key given the threat of rain on Sunday and the chance this race could get moved to the main track. ICONIC has two seconds and a third from six starts on turf, and was a close runner-up recently in a 1 1/2-mile turf race at Kentucky Downs; bullet work since, though he has long been a fast work horse. MARKITOFF doesn’t have form that jumps out but his Beyers are rock solid, having come in New York, where even upper-level maiden claimers are quite tough; winning grass stable.