ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 9, CARRERA CAT

FIRST RACE

SPECIAL DIVIDEND ran off four straight wins with improving figures and then rallied for 3rd vs. a stronger field earlier this year before hitting the sidelines; turf sprint upon her return looks like a prep for trainer who has put up strong numbers turf-to-dirt (past five years: 38 for 142, 27%, $2.24 ROI, 5-19 second off the layoff in that sample, 26%, $3.21 ROI). BIG MARA blew out weaker while on a big class drop upstate, and she came right back with an improved effort to win off the claim at this level; enters right back for the same tag for trainer holding a strong hand in the opener. FAMILYOFROSES starting back off a sixmonth break with a trainer change, and while she may need a race to knock off some rust, she is plenty good enough to handle a field like this and she can sprint.

SECOND RACE

DIVINE MISS GREY won first three starts for this trainer during the spring/summer meet, one more impressively than the next and with ascending figures, before having that run stopped in the Grade 1 Test; like her speed in this field, and am not opposed to her having another chance on grass after that lone run early on which, while the form of that race hasn’t worked out, was contested over soft ground going long in a race that collapsed; full-sister Divine Dawn was a two-time winner and stakes-placed on grass. WILD ABOUT HARRY took a step back when turned back to six furlongs in that last one, but she otherwise has hit hard in her races, and she can do it over any distance; tends to make it close at the end, but she is game when she’s in range late. BERNADIVA dropping out of some minor stakes tries where she couldn’t really contend, though she did her very best with a good trip in that last one; class relief helps, and she can procure a good trip from the rail. HEAVENLY SCORE has been solid on turf; biggest question for her may be the distance, as the seven is not really suitable to the cut-and-dried turf sprinters, which she may be.

THIRD RACE

IMPAZIBLE CREEK settled for 3rd in her career debut after getting held up off the pace along the rail for a long way; just went evenly in the late stages there, but overall that appeared to be a start she can build upon, assuming she works out a better trip from the inside this time. OPUS UNO debuting over a tough distance but doing so for a trainer who excels with first-time starters, though mostly with 2yos (4 for his last 22 with 3yo first time starters in dirt sprints, 22%, $2.40 ROI); dam of this one was a very good racehorse for Violette winning multiple stakes going long, though she was also a debut winner sprinting. SUGARILLE switched to dirt for the first time at Saratoga, and she took an early run to challenge the eventual winner on the lead in that race, before engaging in a long duel and ultimately settling for secondbest; may need to do better this time. CONNIE A didn’t take much money for a Pletcher firster, and she was a no factor 2nd in a race that came back fast on closing weekend upstate; entered for dirt this time.

FOURTH RACE

STONE FACTOR sporting a solid pedigree on debut as a daughter of The Factor out of a dam who won twice on grass, and who has dropped three solid racehorses already, including two-time turf winner D’ Eloquent; trainer underrated with firsttime starters. POUND NOTE adding blinkers and switching to leading NY rider off of disappointing run last time where she was even in the stretch and caught from behind for 4th; debut was a promising run for 2nd behind a sharp winner, and she is a threat here if bouncing back. FOREVER DAISY the first foal from her unraced dam, who is herself a sister to the multiple stakes-winning turf horse Wake Up Kiss; trainer can win first time out.

FIFTH RACE

THE BERBER has done nothing special though two starts so far, but he was way against a strong inside track in his debut, and then showed more speed in that last one; may have found the right field here as she makes her first start for trainer

who is strong off the claim overall, and has done good work with maidens off the claim as well (2 for 9 with 5 2nds, $2.55 ROI). BARTLETTS MARK didn’t offer much in his career debut last month, but he may have simply needed a start after going very greenly throughout the running there; dams prior foals are solid runners, and they were all dirt horses. REGALIAN got outrun vs. a tougher field first time out; drops right away and will add lasix in a race where he may not have to improve all that much to contend. OUTVOTED dropping for Pletcher after drawing in as an MTO and getting very tired over a sloppy track first time out; Pletcher 11 for 27 (41%) dropping from MSW to MCL with second-time starters in dirt sprints ($2.17 ROI).

SIXTH RACE

ANY QUESTIONS appears to have found a tough field for the level as he drops back down in class, but this is the kind of race he belongs in, and he did not have the best of trips when held up from the start and then losing position in traffic at a crucial point in race that was dominated up close last time; needs a trip, and likely his very best effort vs. this field. BARATTI 0-3 on turf, but he may be getting back into form following an extended layoff earlier in his career, as he posted a win on dirt prior to leaving Dubai, and then came through with a career-best effort on grass when closing gamely from last in paceless race last time. PIONEER SPIRIT has improved on turf, and his speed is likely to put him in a good early position once again in this spot; good try in that last one to hold a couple of challengers before getting closed down by a last-to-first winner. RAY’S THE BAR taking huge class drop for Chad Brown on the back of a pair of disappointing performances so far this year; too good for these with anything close to his good race, if he can find it, and wouldn’t be surprised to see them let him roll early in this race.

SEVENTH RACE

GIFT BOX missed a lot of time before finally getting back to the races at the tail end of the Saratoga meet, and he was listed as a vet scratch up there prior to getting a chance to run, which came over a distance short of his best; positive view of that run is that he simply really needed a race, as he did not come through with a particularly impressive performance, and he is supposed to be tough here as he stretches back out, assuming he can still run. BECKER’S GALAXY back up off the Rudy re-claim, and he was impressive in that last one where he went fast on the lead and held on over a demanding distance; unlikely to have the early lead in this much tougher field, but he doesn’t need it to be effective. DO YOU KNOW SOMETHING having trouble winning races this year, and he may be turning down in his form at this point, but he fits well here with his good race, and he can work out a trip up close to the pace. HARLAN PUNCH in excellent form right now for Jacobson, but not sure the added distance of this race does him any favors.

EIGHTH RACE

HELLO DON JULIO stepping up once again trying to prove that he can go with better horses and think he deserves the chance following sharp win after a good trip at Saratoga; distance suits, and he is perfectly drawn for another inside stalking trip. FORGE may be the most talented runner in the field as things currently stand, but he took the worst of the draw on the far outside over this distance on the inner; has just one win to show for it, but he has run well in all five starts since arriving stateside, including that last one when clearly secondbest to front-running Heart to Heart. MUQTASER a major contender in his current form, even if he has taken advantage of some softer trips along the way; tactical speed his advantage, and that was a game try through some traffic when falling short at Kentucky Downs last time.

NINTH RACE

Liked the short sprint debut from CARRERA CAT after she worked out a trip down on the inside, and thought she came back with another solid effort when closing gamely behind a very impressive winner last time; cut back to seven her advantage in race where the others are either stretching out or debuting. ENGLISH SOUL got bet and then ran a winning race while contesting a fast pace first time out, only to succumb to a closing winner in the last stages; tough here if she can get the seven, which isn’t always easy. CHICLET’S DREAM the first foal from Karakorum Elektra, who was an excellent turf sprinting around here a few years ago, winning 13-times and putting almost $500k in the bank; threat right away if she runs to her pedigree. SOUTHERN GAL just missed while rallying up the rail first time out, though she had a very nice trip in that race overall and had a shot at this thing before missing narrowly; can easily improve enough to win this.