ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 5, PADDOCK PICK

FIRST RACE

Although he finished a modest third in the dirt race from which he was claimed last out, the best recent races by HERO TEN ALL have been turf. He returns to preferred footing in this N2L claiming turf mile, and is the tepid choice to wear them down late. CURLY’S WATERFRONT shows up for a tag ($25k) for the first time since his winning debut last year. He has faced good allowance and stakes company, ran okay, prepped in a recent sprint at Del Mar, now stretches out and drops to the bottom level for So Cal turf horses. This easier spot could be a wakeup, second start back. AIRLITE and KY. COLONEL both drop to claiming for the first time. The stablemates faced better, were not quite good enough in allowance races, but figure as contenders for a claim tag.

SECOND RACE

BESIDES THE POINT fits the conditions of this $12.5k claiming sprint, which is restricted to older fillies and mares that have not won two races, or 3yo fillies. BESIDES THE POINT, a 3yo, is the only entrant with multiple wins. The three-time winner returns to her preferred distance and racetrack; she is 2-for-4 in sprints at Santa Anita. First start back, easy spot. SALLY SIMPSON has speed, and there is not much of that in this field. She has lost three straight as the favorite since her maiden win, but could find herself on a clear lead with an ordinary group chasing her. STIR FRY returns from a 14-month layoff, at rock bottom. Her springsummer races in 2016 put her squarely in the hunt.

THIRD RACE

BOSS MOVE finished behind MIS VIOLA when they met in a maiden race in July, but BOSS MOVE improved following that runner-up finish while her rival took a step back when she ran again. That gives BOSS MOVE a right to turn the tables. She crushed maiden-claiming rivals by more than seven lengths last out, returns in a starter allowance from which she cannot be claimed, and with six weeks between starts is likely to continue her upward pattern. MIS VIOLA followed her maiden win with a runner-up finish in a similar starter allowance. The effort was just okay; her speed figure declined. However, her victory margin over the top selection was more than five lengths when they met in July. TWISTED ROSIE wheeled back in two weeks to win a maiden-claiming sprint for state-breds. Good win, on short notice. She has had plenty time (more than six weeks) since, and is likely to return as an improved filly.

FOURTH RACE

ZURI CHOP finished sixth as the favorite last out in a turf sprint at Del Mar, but two key factors were against the closer. First, he broke from an outside post. Second, the winner led gate to wire, which negated his rally. ZURI CHOP’s Del Mar victory two back at this $40k claiming level would be good enough; his last three starts on the hill produced two seconds and a third. YES YES YES shortens in distance, and returns to the hillside course on which he recently had success, a win and a third during the winter-spring season. GENERAL IKE has been showing speed in routes, and fading. That pattern can be effective with turnbacks on the hill. Furthermore, he ran well to finish second his only other start on grass. AMERICAN LEAGUE figures to be forwardly placed in a race without much zip.

FIFTH RACE

PADDOCK PICK ran better in his debut than his fifth-place finish position suggests. With a race under his belt, he enters as the most probable winner on the card. He posted a series of sharp works into his debut, but broke last, made a middle move, took dirt, and finished evenly inside to miss by only two and a half lengths. All in all, it was a solid performance. Since returning from Del Mar, he worked fast over the Santa Anita surface, and benefits from the additional distance of this six and one-half furlong race. SHIVERMETIMBERS makes his debut with a pair of solid recent sixfurlong workouts. The work times are not flashy, because the surface has produced slow times.

Looks like he is fit enough to fire first time out.

TALENT SCOUT has trained well for his debut, while SPANISH BAY prepped in a turf mile and now shortens up and moves to dirt for the second start of his career.

SIXTH RACE

If he reproduces his dominating maiden win nine days ago, RESTRAINEDVENGENCE can win this $100k turf stakes for 2yos. The gelding trounced his rivals by nearly six lengths, with a final quarter-mile in 23.14 seconds. For a 2yo, that is absolutely rolling. It’s a quick nine-day turnaround, but the performance was impressive. He can win right back for the Brinkerhoff family. MY BOY JACK has improved each successive start; he finished second last out in a similar $100k turf stakes at Del Mar. Still a maiden, which is no big deal, and he continues on an upward pattern. COUNT ALEXANDER exits the best race, a fourth-place finish in the G2 Summer Stakes at Woodbine. He probably is facing easier in this spot, though it is uncertain how far he wants to run. He loomed a threat into the lane last out at one mile, then lost his punch. The lightly raced colt should be able to stay a mile based on his pedigree.

SEVENTH RACE

Runner-up in her first three starts, including twice against older, WILLOWS BABE adds blinkers for her first start in two months. The 2yo filly benefits by the additional distance of this six-furlong sprint. GONCHAROVA drops from special-weight to maiden-32, and switches to dirt. She showed speed and faded last time racing one mile, maybe she wants to sprint. INNYMINNIEMINEYMOE finished second by a nose last time out, while more than three lengths clear of third. The knock is the race was a low-rated affair. This race is a kind of a mess, actually. Begging to be won by a longshot.

EIGHTH RACE

This $12.5k claiming race is the colts-and-geldings route version of race 2. This race also is restricted to non-winners of two races, or 3yos. VIBE is a 3yo with four career wins, he won twice over this track, and his last-start win against his age group was validated when the horse he beat returned two starts later to defeat open company. GO GHETTO ran long on “fast” dirt for the first time last out, and ran the race of his career. It was a two and one-half length victory in a maiden-20; he is realistically spotted in this N2L. BEAUMARCHAIS is pure speed. He will lead as far as he can, dropping precipitously in class. UCANTHANKMELATER is the aforementioned gelding that finished behind the top choice three back. His last-to-first win in his most recent start makes him a factor vs. this group.

NINTH RACE

Considering she was caught four-wide start to finish last out in a turf route stakes, ONE FAST BROAD actually ran super to finish second. She was stretching out from a low-rated dirt sprint, broke from post 14 in the turf route, was never able to tuck in, yet missed by only a half-length. It was actually a super effort. She did not get much help at the draw for this turf route stakes either, breaking from post 10. Nonetheless, she merits top-choice status based on her excellent try last out in just the second start of her career. RETRO won her debut in a two-turf route last month at Del Mar. Based on the replay, it appeared she did just enough to win. In other words, she probably has more to give. She galloped out with run past the wire. MOON DASH ships from Delaware, where she won her debut as the odds-on favorite. A $650k purchase at a 2yo sale, she is likely to improve with experience.