ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, STRIKE MIDNIGHT

FIRST RACE

VIRADIA did no running while debuting in a fastpaced turf sprint upstate, but switches over to dirt for her second start, and runners from this barn will improve significantly after a race, even while making a surface switch (past five years, maiden, second start, turf-to-dirt: 12 for 33, 36%, $3.32 ROI; 5 for 10 with 2yos in that sample, $3.55 ROI). MOJITO MARGARITA a half to Frosty Margarita, multiple stakes-winning dirt sprinter who races for these connections; Rudy solid with firsters sprinting on dirt overall and has done well starting them out for a tag (past five years: 23%, $2.67 ROI). CAOIMHE a half to six winners from this dam debuting for trainer who is underrated with firsttime starters; gap in the tab from 8/12 to 9/22 a concern, but she blew out with a bullet from the gate on top of this.

SECOND RACE

BARONET better off the shorter she can go and think the one-turn races around her suit her best, especially when she can get up there on or near the early lead, something she projects to be able to do here; best race would give her a chance at a decent price in field where the likely favorites are not without question marks. MAGICIAN’S VANITY the horse to beat but seems we will really be hoping that the Maker-off-the-claim angle helps push hanging mare past the wire at a short price; 1 for 31 on turf so far, and she has really had no excuses in her last two starts at this level. TIZ A KITTEN earned a standout figure while falling just short of heavily-favored Island Reward at this level last month, but she only made it so close there after that one started stopping on the lead in the late stages; tough if the figure holds up. ABOUT THAT BASE can win getting the class relief that she needs, but her turf form is nothing special and she does not finish hard in her races.

THIRD RACE

BUNYAAN drops for second start off the claim after catching a muddy sealed track over a distance that is too far for him upstate; well-placed to pick up second career win in race where he projects for a nice trip tracking from the inside. MR. MCFROSTY a little slow on the way in, but he is still lightlyraced after only five main track starts, and he was compromised by a poor start last time but was still in the mix in the stretch before ultimately weakening late. BAR NONE has settled for second-best behind a pair of dominant winners in his first two starts off the Jacobson claim; owns competitive figures, but has to stretch out.

FOURTH RACE

JAYE JAYE JAYE JAYE appears to be training well up to his debut for Mott, who has had success with his first time starters on turf over the past couple of years; three winning foals from this dam are all good turf horses, including the multiple stakes winner Macagone (8 wins and over $530k in earnings, so far) and Red Knight, who made it 2 for 2 on grass here last weekend. GOLDEN SEAL was bumped at the start before failing to impact after a mostly-rail trip in his main track debut; has some turf on the dam-side of his pedigree for an excellent trainer, but Union Rags has really struggled with his turf runners so far (2 for 44 with 2yos on turf). BINGO SMITH goes out for trainer who excels with first-time starters on grass; first foal from this dam, who posted both career wins sprinting on dirt but who is a half-sister to the good turf mare Akilina.

FIFTH RACE

FOR HONOR returned in a pretty tough spot upstate, and she did not get a very aggressive early ride in that spot, before failing to make an impact for a trainer who does not excel off of long layoffs like that; class drop not necessarily a great sign for her second start back, but she is supposed to be hard on this field with any kind of improvement. UNO DUDE returned from her layoff over a short sprint distance and raced on gamely in the stretch after getting off to a slow start; game win from just off the pace to break her maiden at Gulfstream. IWISHIRISH light on figures for her first

start off the claim, but she easily handled maidens two starts back, and she will benefit from this turn back in distance after blowing a clear stretch lead going a mile last time.

SIXTH RACE

FERRAD’S PARTY switching to turf for his second career start after making a somewhat promising debut on dirt where he was bumped at the start before racing greenly early, and then flattened out in the stretch after briefly looming behind the leaders; not much turf performance in the immediate family, but if he can handle it he may have landed in the right spot. ALEXANDER DAVID drops back down for first start off the layoff and first for Albertrani; both turf starts at GP to start out were fine, though there were no excuses for him in those races. GET GAME was favored when finishing behind a couple of these in a four-horse photo last month, but he was making his turf debut there off a short layoff; can have one more chance, as can the speedy FOR POPS, who should appreciate this shorter distance.

SEVENTH RACE

TOUCH OF STAR QUALITY got another break after giving way behind a romping Seymourdini when last seen, which is a good thing for talented horse who is at his very best fresh; loves the one-turn mile, though a wet track would be a drawback for him. BIG DADDY an interesting new face entering with 8 for 10 record on dirt in his native Chile while switching to the Pletcher barn and adding Lasix; unclear what he was leaving in his wake at home, but he won the last two Group 1s on dirt very easily while putting a nice pace-tracking style on display. VULCAN’S FORGE has turned out to be a better horse on dirt, where he has won each of his two starts over the main track here with competitive figures; stepping up to face some tougher rivals here. ECONOMIC MODEL has not managed to get a 4yo campaign going this year, but he deserves another chance after stumbling at the start and racing wide at Saratoga last time.

EIGHTH RACE

STRIKE MIDNIGHT took a long time to get back to the races this year, and then was quickly dropped in class for his second start of the summer, but he ran very well in that race while having to give ground in order to get himself clear in the stretch, and the finishing up with a good run too late; has the back races to handle this class rise for trainer who is underrated overall, and who does a good job from limited opportunities off the claim. CERISE’S PRINCE still has something to prove at this level, but he deserves one more chance after enduring a tough trip from a difficult post two starts back at Saratoga, and then simply getting the wrong ride from the inside last time when neglecting to put any of his early speed into play; switches to more aggressive rider this time. SNAP DECISION gets some needed class relief here after failing to match up with stakes horses over the summer; no excuses in modest field last time and he is likely to be a short price once again.

NINTH RACE

HERECOMESYOURMAN came up short in a tougher field for the level last time; like him getting back to Belmont where he ran well vs. tougher in a pair of starts over the summer. BRIANBAKESCOOKIES and HARLAN’S HUNCH both fought gamely to the wire before getting outfinished by repeat winner Krampus over the inner turf last month; hard to love them after a combined 22 starts, but neither would be a surprise in this race.