ANALYSIS

BEST BET: RACE 8, SHES GOT THE LUCK

FIRST RACE

TOIKIN figures to shake loose against this short field, and if he’s able to back down the fractions on a loose lead he should be tough to reel in; he stopped on a loose lead three back but that was on a course rated “good”, and he may go further if he catches a “firm” course. IGO FORGREATNESS merits respect on the effort and Beyer he turned in two back; latest was sub-par but he was caught behind a mild pace there. READY WITH HONOR should be able to stay close from the start from the rail; may get first run at the top pick.

SECOND RACE

FLYING GIRL made a rare appearance on the dirt last time and ran a race that suggested that’s where she should have been all along, drawing off smartly after making a mid-race bid and posting a Beyer that makes her a top contender here; can repeat if she can run back to that figure. MISS CONTESSA weakened on the turf in her latest but she’s a contender here based on the effort two back, when she beat non-winners of two on the main track; rebound certainly expected. VENTINA has never raced on the dirt but her pedigree suggests the main track won’t be an issue; barn wins at a good rate with horses switching to this surface, too.

THIRD RACE

TREV has some of the best Beyers in the field and though this drop into a claiming race in his first start since last year he has to be respected given his edge in figures; barn wins at a high rate with turf sprinters as well as runners returning from a long break. LOST FOR WORDS is widest, and comes off a route, but he could be the one they have to catch; dangerous if allowed to set his own pace on a loose lead. GRAPHITE STRIKE scored on the lead last time but he can also rate if need be; that versatility should allow him to work out a trip regardless of how the race flow develops.

FOURTH RACE

FLORENTINE SKY comes off two abbreviated sprints and she could be the main pacesetter on the stretch-out to seven furlongs; she weakened in her return from the layoff but she was caught up in a duel there, and she may have needed the race anyway. PLANET ROCK turns back from longer races at Gulfstream but given the expected race flow and her inside post she figures to be prominent from the start; big threat if the pace is in fact controlled. SAINTE THERESE has enough early zip to stay close and that could be an edge if the fractions are mild.

FIFTH RACE

SOULSHINE was off the board in her debut but that was a sprint, and it turned out to be a key race, and in her latest she seemed to move prematurely, a race which set up well for closers; this is her first start since February but it’s encouraging she doesn’t return for a tag. SUNFEST changes barns, and new trainer David Kassen wins at a high rate with such runners; most recent try was better than it looks, a she was against the race flow. QUEEN JILL has had her chances but she certainly fits in terms of her best Beyers, including the last one.

SIXTH RACE

URUGUAIAN PRINCESS was a sharp winner against maiden claimers in her first start in nearly a year, and while she could be a “bounce” candidate in her 2nd start back she seems well spotted here as the possible main speed; will be tough to reel in if she’s in fact able to control the tempo from the start. SYLVER MAGIC cuts back in distance but the

lack of pace in this field should mean she works out a forward trip, which will give her an edge on the stone closers. BOURBON HONEY has speed and the rail and she’s another who should be prominent from the start.

SEVENTH RACE

FLORA FANTASY makes her first start on the grass but she is kin to at least three turf winners, including Diamond Cut, who earned over $116K on the green; dam was also proficient on the turf, posting two of her three wins on the grass. SUN OF TARA certainly moved up in her 2nd career start, making a bold move on the turn and then drawing off to win by double digit lengths in a sharp effort; clearly one to consider strongly off that running line. SOBER ON SUNDAY has steady figures, and though she rises off the win she merits a long look on the strength of her most recent Beyers.

EIGHTH RACE

SHES GOT THE LUCK was beaten less than two lengths in that last one but that was a good effort, as she was forced to try to close in a race where the speeds held the edge; figures to move up off that effort if she gets even a little help from the pacesetters. BOSTON MINE has turfed only once, and the figure she earned there puts her in the thick of this; she was up the course there but it was against much better than the field she meets today. FEND FOR YOURSELF stretches out and will take them as far as she can on the lead; not a strong win candidate but perhaps an exotics threat if she can shake loose early on.